NFL DFS Building Blocks – Week 3

After an insane Week 2 slate with 10 morning games, we have a much more balanced main DFS slate this week. We’ve also got twice as much data to look back on, so hopefully, we can identify the top plays. Let’s get started!

Game Overviews

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Totals: Chargers 17.5, Steelers 18.5

This game has the lowest projected total on the slate, as both of these teams have played conservative football to start the season. In fact, if we discount the Packers (thanks to the Malik Willis factor), these two teams lead the league in rush rate over expectation. Combine that with two of PFF’s four top-rated defenses so far, and we may be in for an ugly one.   

Quarterbacks

Both of these Justins are tempting, as they both theoretically bring more potential than their price tags would indicate. Justin Herbert hasn’t had to do much in two easy matchups so far this season, while Justin Fields has yet to really cash in on the rushing usage he’s seen. Still, neither is a cash game option with this low total. Of the two, I prefer Fields in tournaments, as he still has a very high theoretical ceiling. 

Running Backs 

This is the main position to consider in this game. However, even though these teams run through their RBs, it’s hard to get excited about them in this environment. J.K. Dobbins has been incredible through two weeks, but his price is up, and this is by far the toughest matchup he’s faced. On the other side, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will cannibalize each other’s volume, making it hard to trust either. 

Wide Receivers

George Pickens has been unlucky not to have better days thus far. He can be stacked with Fields in tournaments but is still too risky for cash games. The same applies to all of the Chargers’ receivers: Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Joshua Palmer. They are cheap, so if you want to throw a dart at one, I recommend QJ. His awful rookie season means he isn’t getting much love, but he leads the team in routes and has a very nice 39% first-read target share. That all turned into points last week, and it could again this week, although the matchup is tough.  

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth isn’t seeing enough targets to be an appealing DFS play. The same applies to Hayden Hurst. 

Defenses

Obviously, the game with the lowest total on the slate brings some defensive appeal. However, it’s worth noting that both of these offenses have done well protecting the ball and avoiding sacks — they’re conservative, not necessarily error-prone. The Chargers’ defense and Steelers’ defense are both playable, but they might not provide as much value as you’d hope.  

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

Projected Totals: Bears 21.5, Colts 21.5

Here we have a battle of two teams with very exciting young quarterbacks who don’t yet provide offensive consistency. Anthony Richardson came back to earth last week after a highlight-filled Week 1, while Caleb Williams is still trying to make it work behind a struggling Bears O-line. As with the previous game, this is more of a tournament matchup than a cash game one. 

Quarterbacks

Through two weeks, we’ve seen the good and the bad of Anthony Richardson. His athleticism and big-play ability give him a massive weekly ceiling, but he doesn’t have the passing consistency to provide a weekly floor. He’s a tournament option, for sure, but risky in cash games. Caleb Williams, on the other hand, has yet to show any kind of fantasy floor or ceiling; he’s not worth playing. 

Running Backs 

D’Andre Swift has been arguably the worst rusher in the NFL through two weeks, as his 18.2% success rate ranks worst among qualified RBs. You can maybe play him in a tournament, as the Colts gave up 261 rushing yards to the Packers last week … but I wouldn’t. The headlines surrounding Jonathan Taylor this week have focused on the fact that the Colts pulled him for the entire fourth quarter last week while playing from behind, and he is expensive for an RB with just two receptions so far this season. However, he still ranks second in the NFL with a 70% team rush share, so playing him isn’t completely off the table.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen has been ruled out, leaving D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze as the Bears’ top targets. Odunze hasn’t done much so far, but he is cheap enough on DraftKings to be worth considering. Moore, on the other hand, is expensive given his lackluster production so far — he’s talented enough to blow up at potentially low rostership, but I wouldn’t bet on it. On the Colts’ side, it’s hard to trust any receivers with how erratic Richardson has been. Michael Pittman has struggled, and the return of Josh Downs will further cut into his target share. Alec Pierce has started hot, but he has a history of being unproductive and could lose routes to Adonai Mitchell with Downs back in the slot.  

Tight Ends

Neither Cole Kmet nor Kylen Granson is on the DFS radar.

Defenses

You can play either the Colts’ defense or the Bears’ defense, as both of these young quarterbacks have been mistake and/or sack-prone to start the season. 

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Totals: Texans 23.5, Vikings 22.5

Now we’re talking. This game has much more fantasy appeal than the previous two. The Texans’ offense is living up to the hype, and Kevin O’Connell is proving his worth as a playcaller who can make any quarterback look good. There are good options on both sides of this game.

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud is always in play, both for tournaments and cash games. Of course, as a non-mobile QB, he’s best stacked with one of his weapons. Sam Darnold has been remarkably efficient and cheap (except on Yahoo). Given what should be a solid game environment, you can stack him with Justin Jefferson and try to take down a tournament.  

Running Backs 

Both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are trending toward missing this game, so we should see plenty of Cam Akers. At absurdly cheap prices, he’ll be very popular in cash games, for good reason. Aaron Jones struggled last week after a big Week 1, seeing fewer carries and being less efficient with them than Ty Chandler (although Jones did lead the Vikings with five receptions). His price isn’t too bad, but it’s hard to trust him in cash games.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson is always in play in any format. It doesn’t matter the matchup or who his quarterback is. Jalen Nailor is a cheap option for tournaments (except on FanDuel, where he’s priced up) with Jordan Addison looking doubtful. On the Texans’ side, you can play any of their big three receivers. Nico Collins has asserted himself as the alpha in this offense but still isn’t priced like it. Stefon Diggs is a bit expensive, but could still score two TDs and win a tournament. Tank Dell has disappointed so far this season, but his usage has been fine, so he could pop off at the cheapest price of the trio. 

Tight Ends

Neither Dalton Schultz nor Johnny Mundt is involved enough to be more than a pure dart throw.

Defenses

I’m avoiding both the Texans’ defense and the Vikings’ defense, as this game should see solid offense from both sides.

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns

Projected Totals: Giants 15.5, Browns 23.5

The Giants have the lowest total on the slate, and there’s really no reason to expect them to have a surprise big game against a tough Browns defense. The Browns have a higher total, but they also haven’t exactly been lighting it up through two weeks. 

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones both delivered decent results last week, but it’s hard to trust either. Watson can maybe be considered as a tournament play, given the Browns’ high total and the Giants’ defense ineptitude.

Running Backs 

I’m avoiding the Browns’ run game, even in this prime matchup. Last week saw D’Onta Foreman take a lead role (at Jerome Ford’s expense) a week removed from playing just one offensive snap — their split is simply too unpredictable. Devin Singletary, on the other hand, has the Giants’ backfield to himself and has made the most of his opportunities through two weeks. However, those opportunities have been limited by the Giants’ overall struggles, and it’s hard to imagine that changes this week.  

Wide Receivers

Malik Nabers saw a 64.3% target share last week. That number could be cut in half and still be elite. Even in a tough matchup on a terrible offense, you can play the rookie. The Browns’ receivers feel risky, even in a tempting matchup. Amari Cooper has been arguably the least productive receiver in the league on a per-target basis, as he and Watson just keep failing to connect. This could be a get-right spot, but it’s a risky tournament play. Jerry Jeudy has produced a bit, but neither he nor Elijah Moore sees enough volume to be a play.

Tight Ends

With David Njoku ruled out, you can throw a dart at Jordan Akins, but I wouldn’t. Theo Johnson is also cheap for the number of routes he runs, but he doesn’t exactly provide the big game ceiling to make him a worthwhile dart throw. 

Defenses

The Browns’ defense is viable as a pay-up option in a top-tier matchup. The Giants’ defense is not really in play, although Watson is prone to a sack or two.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Projected Totals: Eagles 23.5, Saints 25.5

The Saints proved they are for real by dominating the Cowboys last week and are rewarded by being favorites in one of the week’s highest totals. The Eagles choked away a win on Monday Night Football but still project for some fantasy goodness.  

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr obviously won’t stay this efficient: He’s currently the fantasy QB2 on the 31st-most pass attempts in the league. But he has clearly found a groove in this Klint Kubiak offense, and increased volume will help offset decreased efficiency at least somewhat. Especially against a beatable Eagles secondary, we can consider riding the hot hand. Jalen Hurts, meanwhile, looked like his old self with 85 rushing yards and a TD against the Falcons. If he can keep that up, he can smash in what should be a shootout. 

Running Backs 

Two of the top three most expensive backs on the slate, both Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley can be played in all formats. Neither of these veteran backs has the efficiency they once did, but their usage in both the receiving and rushing games is elite. 

Wide Receivers

With A.J. Brown likely out, DeVonta Smith should see plenty of work and is in play in all formats. Jahan Dotson was the Eagles’ WR2 by routes on Monday, but he’s just a tournament dart throw. On the Saints’ side, I’m going to keep playing Chris Olave until the big game comes — although it seems everyone else has the same idea this week. Rashid Shaheed, meanwhile, seems to have nothing but big games. Both are in play in this good matchup.  

Tight Ends

If you have more than one fantasy-relevant tight end, you don’t have any, and that applies even when one of them is a fullback (Taysom Hill, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau). Dallas Goedert is an option with AJB out, albeit an unexciting one (there aren’t many exciting TEs left). 

Defenses

Both the Saints’ defense and the Eagles’ defense are best avoided. 

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Totals: Broncos 16.5, Buccaneers 23.5

The Broncos’ offense has been dreadful, while the Buccaneers have been cooking. I see no reason not to expect more of the same this week. 

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix is not a play. Baker Mayfield can be played, although he may not have to do much as a seven-point favorite.  

Running Backs 

Both of these backfields are ugly. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are unlikely to escape the quagmire that is this Denver offense. Rachaad White continues to be extremely inefficient, but Bucky Irving’s role isn’t big enough yet to play him. With that said, this matchup is good enough that White can be considered despite his inefficiency.  

Wide Receivers

Chris Godwin is on fire, and you can play him or Mike Evans, either alone or stacked with Baker. Evans is still more expensive despite Godwin’s hot start, so expect Godwin to be more heavily rostered. Courtland Sutton is cheap (especially on FanDuel) for the volume he’s seen, but it’s very difficult to want a part of this Broncos offense. 

Tight Ends

Cade Otton is a cardio king, while Greg Dulcich can’t get enough routes. Neither sees the volume to be more than a tournament dart.

Defenses

The Buccaneers’ defense is a very solid play; they just held the Lions, an infinitely better offense than Denver’s, in check and are cheap (except on FanDuel). The Broncos’ defense is not worth playing, even at a cheap price. 

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Projected Totals: Packers 17.5, Titans 19.5

These projected totals are clearly assuming that we are due for a Malik Willis revenge game, even though Jordan Love has been practicing. Last week, the Packers protected Willis with a truly absurd 75% rush rate … and it worked. Meanwhile, the Titans’ offense is one of many around the league struggling for consistency. This one could be ugly.

Quarterbacks

Will Levis is not a play, even if he is cheap. Malik Willis is even cheaper (except on FanDuel) and performed adequately in his first start, but he is not going to see enough passing volume to be worth playing. I would also avoid Jordan Love if he plays, as he will likely be limited.

Running Backs 

Tony Pollard has seen a workhorse share of the Titans’ backfield so far, but that may not last. I’m avoiding him even in a good situation. Josh Jacobs saw an absurd 32 carries last week and could see that many again this week, especially with MarShawn Lloyd on IR. He can be played in all formats. 

Wide Receivers

As long as Willis is under center, none of the Packers’ WRs can be played. It’s already hard enough to predict volume in this crowded offense, and Willis attempted just 14 passes last week. Calvin Ridley had a big game last week against the Jets and isn’t too expensive, but it’s hard to trust anyone who relies on Levis as a cash play at this point. 

Tight Ends

The same goes for Chigoziem Okonkwo and Tucker Kraft/Luke Musgrave — these offenses aren’t good enough to support secondary pieces.

Defenses

Both of these defenses are in play. The Packers’ defense could benefit from Levis’ weekly inexplicable turnover, while the Titans’ defense may be better prepared to deal with Matt LaFleur’s run-heavy game plan than the Colts were. 

Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Projected Totals: Panthers 16.5, Raiders 23.5

The Raiders are quietly second in the league in pass rate over expected. Meanwhile, the Panthers have not-so-quietly made a change at quarterback. Clearly, the market still doesn’t expect much from their offense with Andy Dalton under center, but it’s worth noting that they scored 27 points in his lone 2023 start.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew is not worth playing, even in a great matchup. Andy Dalton is so cheap that it’s tempting to build a stack around him for a large-field tournament … but don’t blame me if it doesn’t work.

Running Backs 

Dalton may turn this offense around enough to make Chuba Hubbard viable, but it’s not worth the risk to play him until we’ve seen it happen. Even in a perfect matchup, it’s hard to roster Zamir White, who has been very inefficient and loses plenty of valuable snaps to Alexander Mattison. White could score a TD or two and help in tournaments, but he’s not a cash play. 

Wide Receivers

As a Dionate Johnson truther, I want to believe and roll him out with Dalton under center. However, there are probably still safer plays for cash games. Davante Adams, meanwhile, is still carving up defenses at age 31. He can be played as a standalone option.

Tight Ends

Normally, when Yahoo disagrees with DK and FD on pricing, their price is the one that seems off. But in this case, I think they’re a lot closer to correct pricing Brock Bowers as the TE1 than the other two are having him as the TE5. The rookie leads all TEs in targets through two weeks and is an option in all formats. The same cannot be said for fellow rookie TE Ja’Tavion Sanders.

Defenses

The Raiders’ defense can be played, but they are expensive, and I’m slightly afraid of the Red Rifle. The Panthers’ defense should be avoided regardless of their matchup. 

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected Totals: Dolphins 18.5, Seahawks 23.5

What a sad day it is to see the Dolphins with a total this low. With Skylar Thompson under center, this will not be the Dolphins’ offense we are used to. Seattle aired it out in Week 2, as Zach Charbonnet struggled on the ground with Kenneth Walker sidelined. We will see if that trend continues this week.  

Quarterbacks

Skylar Thompson is not in play unless you’re planning on making a Dolphins stack in a large tournament. Geno Smith is still vastly underrated, and the new Seahawks’ coaching staff seems more willing to let him cook with Walker out, making him a valid option. 

Running Backs 

Zach Charbonnet was inefficient in Week 2, averaging almost a yard less than expected per carry. But he saw a massive workload and still finished with a solid fantasy day thanks to five receptions and a rushing touchdown. He’ll be chalky given his cheap price, huge workload, and good matchup — it’s up to you whether you want to eat that chalk. De’Von Achane, especially with Raheem Mostert out again, looks set for another big week. He should see plenty of screens and rushes with Thompson under center, the question is whether Seattle will be able to key in on him enough to slow him down.

Wide Receivers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba set new career highs last week and is an option again this week, as is D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett is still capable of a big outing (as Week 1 showed) but is best avoided as the third option on this offense. Tyreek Hill could be a sneaky leverage tournament play as he will be low-rostered and can always break a huge play, but he should be avoided in cash. Jaylen Waddle is someone I’m avoiding in all formats, as his historical production with Thompson is terrible. 

Tight Ends

Neither Jonnu Smith nor Noah Fant is involved enough in their team’s offense to be a good option.

Defenses

Against Skylar Thompson, the Seahawks’ defense is in play, although the Dolphins’ weapons and Mike McDaniel are still scary. The Dolphins’ defense is best avoided. 

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Projected Totals: Lions 27.5, Cardinals 24.5

This game has the highest total on the slate, with two electric offenses meeting two questionable defenses. Both teams have players to consider at every positon … except defense, of course. 

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray locked like the best quarterback in the league last week. It may be chasing points, but he is a great play in all formats in this matchup. Jared Goff is cheap for the quarterback on the favored team in this game environment. He’s absolutely an option as well. 

Running Backs 

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have both scored between 14.1 and 15.8 Half-PPR points in both of the first two weeks. Gibbs is, again, priced higher and projected to be more rostered, which theoretically makes sense because of his higher ceiling … although Montgomery is just as capable of scoring two touchdowns for a huge day. James Conner has been excellent, but his price has risen and this is a tough matchup — the Lions allowed the fewest points to opposing RBs in 2023 and have started 2024 similarly. Conner can still be played, but he comes with more risk than in most weeks.

Wide Receivers

Marvin Harrison Jr. officially arrived last week, and he is already approaching the elite tier of WRs that you can rarely go wrong putting in your lineup. Amon-Ra St. Brown is, of course, in that tier. Jameson Williams also seems to be a very real breakout, with elite production and the peripherals to back it up. Cheaper than the other two, he is a great way into this exciting game environment.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride is the best fantasy tight end in the league; his 28.8% target share is nearly 5% clear of the next TE. He can be played in any week. Sam LaPorta, on the other hand, has just an 8.3% target share through two weeks. He’ll certainly have some big games, so he’s not a must-avoid, but I’d rather roster other TEs as long as he’s still priced like an elite option.  

Defenses

Neither the Cardinals’ defense nor the Lions’ defense should be played; this should be a barn-burner. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected Totals: Ravens 23.5, Cowboys 23.5

Both of these teams desperately need a win, as the Ravens are 0-2 and the Cowboys were just embarrassed at home by the Saints. We’ve also got solid totals on both sides, although this matchup isn’t quite as juicy as the previous one. 

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson is the most expensive quarterback on the slate on all three sites, with good reason. He can always be played, either alone or with one of his teammates. Dak Prescott is also an option, without the same upside but at a cheaper price to compensate. 

Running Backs 

So far, Derrick Henry in Baltimore hasn’t been all it was cracked up to be. Could this be the week the King explodes against a Cowboys defense that just gave up four TDs to Alvin Kamara? Henry’s price isn’t too bad, but the risk that the Cowboys get ahead and he is game-scripted out is real, making him more of a tournament play. On the other side, Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott cannibalize each other’s potential playability. 

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb is universally the top-priced receiver; he can still be played in all formats. Zay Flowers has 20 targets through two weeks. That level of volume makes him viable, although his ADOT is still low for a WR1. Both team’s secondary WRs (Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks, Rashod Bateman) are tournament stack plays more than anything else. 

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely coming back down to Earth in Week 2 was predictable, and he’s still overpriced given his part-time role. Mark Andrews, on the other hand, is trending in the right direction and still seeing decent usage, making him a viable play at decent prices. Jake Ferguson looks set to return from injury and could be a sneaky smash play: He had a 35% target per route run rate in a small Week 1 sample before being sidelined.  

Defenses

These are talented defenses, but good offense beats good defense. Avoid the Ravens’ defense and the Cowboys’ defense. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

Projected Totals: 49ers 24.5, Rams 17.5

This story of this matchup between NFC West rivals is injuries. The 49ers will be missing Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and potentially George Kittle. The Rams will lack Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and half of their O-line. This many injuries opens up opportunities for value plays and condensed production, but it also comes with plenty of risk. 

Quarterbacks

Given the amount of injuries to pass-catchers on both sides, I’m avoiding Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford. You could make an argument for building a value stack with either QB and their remaining weapons, but that’s a risky tournament play.  

Running Backs 

Jordan Mason will be, yet again, massively rostered this week. FanDuel has caught up to his usage and made him one of the most expensive RBs on the slate, but he is still underpriced on DK and Yahoo (you can still play him on FD, too). Kyren Williams will see volume; the question is whether he can manage efficiency against a good defense behind a banged-up offensive line. 

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk has looked rusty through two weeks, but this could be the week he starts to pay off that big contract. With Kittle and Samuel out, he should see heaps of targets. He will be widely rostered, for good reason. On the Rams’ side, Demarcus Robinson is the obvious value play. Rookie Jordan Whittington has a bit of a hype train building, and Tyler Johnson is also an option. But Robinson is clearly ahead of both on the pecking order, and it’s not like his price is much worse (he is a bit expensive on FD). Honestly, I might avoid all three — there’s only so long Stafford and Sean McVay can will this ambulance of an offense forward. 

Tight Ends

With George Kittle out, none of the 49ers’ TEs are worth playing (although Kyle Shanahan will probably scheme one of them open for a 30-yard TD). On the Rams’ side, Colby Parkinson is still just a low-ceiling value play. 

Defenses

The Rams’ defense should be avoided, but I’m tempted by the 49ers’ defense. Admittedly, I’m biased as a Niners fan myself, but I think there’s a chance they shut down this beleaguered Rams unit.

Lineups

Cashed our FanDuel tournament lineup last week but missed out on a bigger score with the Kupp injury. And the Kupp injury left us painfully close to the cash line on DraftKings, but just behind it. Overall, two solid weeks with our core players. Keep building fundamentally sound lineups and keep getting the right core and eventually those ancillary pieces will come through. In tournaments, we’re playing for first place, and we expect droughts, so being able to cash them each week so far is just a nice bonus.

There are a few nice, potential shootout games this week. This is the type of week that can drive you crazy – and make you lose a lot of money – if you’re trying to chase every possible game and player. These weeks are good for three-max entry tournaments where you can get a few lineups in. Or, if your bankroll allows, adding two or three lineups into whatever main tourney you play, but don’t get carried away.

Because there are a few potential shootouts and some chalk from some of those games, game theory will be even more important this week. If we view three games as equally likely to shootout and one offense is expected to be much lower owned than the others, we get immediate leverage on the field by going there. We can also get leverage on the field by building a full game stack on one of the games and hoping the others underwhelm. We saw this situation win quite a few times last year.

It will be tempting – you might try this on one lineup – to load as many players from those games in as you can, but it’s much harder to get all that right than it is to just get one game right. And if each of those players are putting up scores good enough to help you have a tournament winner, it likely means each of those games is shooting out making it even harder that you picked the right combination from all of them. What happens more often than not is that your core does really well and that one player from that other must-have game is a bust and you still tank your lineup.

In general, not thinking about site or ownership, the DET@ARI, BAL@DAL, and PHI@NO games seem like great environments. And you can throw in on FD the KC@ATL game. If you’re not heavy on one of those games, I’d recommending not checking your scores during the afternoon!

Alright, let’s get to it.

FanDuel

Cash Game

Pricing is relatively slack on FanDuel if we start with Akers as obvious value chalk. I’m also going to lock in McBride, who simply projects better on a per-dollar basis than every other TE on the slate. The volume Josh Jacobs should see with Willis under center plays well in FanDuel’s Half-PPR format. Godwin and Aiyuk (again) also stand out as solid plays. Playing the Titans’ defense (which is negatively correlated with Jacobs, but that should be fine for a cash game) leaves us enough money to slam in studs at the remaining spots. 

Tournament

As expected, Mahomes in the late game here draws the most ownership. Murray isn’t too far behind, then Hurts and Lamar Jackson. Goff isn’t highly owned, but I’d rather play the RBs there as he spreads the ball around too much in the passing game. But feel free to take a shot on one if you prefer. The striking value to me is Dak Prescott coming in around the same ownership as Richardson, Purdy, and Darnold and barely above Love who may not even play and Williams and Watson. I’ll take that. Carr is in the same situation against an Eagles defense that is worse than their reputation. I’d be fine starting there as well.

From a game theory standpoint, Olave is near the top five in ownership. With Carr so low, it’s telling us the field is likely to start with Hurts and probably Smith, then add Olave to the stack. Easy way to get different – start with Carr and Barkley instead. That’s how you win. This is a game of educated guessing and trying to compare the probability of certain outcomes against the probability that the field is assigning to those outcomes. Is Hurts four times as likely than Carr to put up a good game? Probably not.

So let’s build. Dak + Lamb + Henry. I like Henry on FD even though Kamara did most of his damage last week through the receiving game (you could definitely take a shot on Justice Hill if you want, especially on DK). That’s our first core, not let’s find a mini-stack from another game. I like Worthy to see some extra rushing usage with Pacheco, so let’s go there, then add Pitts (or Bijan) to the other side. Note, I have one build that has Dak naked without Lamb. Doing that would allow you to easily add Bijan. I’m eating the chalk at playing Achane although there is a very strong game theory argument to fading him and playing Hill instead. A naked Dak lineup that uses Hill instead of Lamb would be very sneaky and super low-owned. If it hits, you’re likely winning first place alone, which is the goal. Or, do what we did week one and, with Bijan instead of Pitts now, play Ferguson at TE. Play around with the last few pieces in one of those builds and you’ve got a really nice looking lineup and keep your fingers crossed that DET@ARI is a bust. You could get even more correlated and, since we likely need a super cheap defense, play either the Lions or Cardinals DEF.

And if that game isn’t a bust… just build another lineup focused on that game. Same game theory concepts as above. Everyone is playing Murray and McBride, which makes sense against the pass-funnel defense of the Lions, but adding Montgomery to the other side at about 3% ownership makes you plenty unique. Adding Dortch to the stack is another way to build a more unique full game stack.

I’ll also be working on a Mahomes build as well and probably a Goff build.

NOTE: As Ted mentioned above, Jordan Mason is very expensive on FD. We’re seeing the impact of the new yardage bonus driving his price up this week. He was a bust last week until 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. He was sitting at about 90 yards with no TDs, then one quick ten-yard TD run, and he gets another 10 FD points. Went from dud to stud in one play. Don’t fall in love with the box scores – his performance was not worth getting his price bumped up to 8.3k.

Cam Akers is also only 4k. Doesn’t take much of a stretch to see him getting there, but they do have other RBs in play. And if you’re fading Akers (I am) you can get extra leverage by playing the Vikings DEF with or without stacking Aaron Jones to further get different at RB.

DraftKings

Cash Game

I’m happy to eat a lot of chalk this week with Akers, Mason, Olave, and Aiyuk. Then I’m going to take advantage of the discount on Tank Dell. Kyler Murray and Brock Bowers also make sense as players who are simply underpriced for what they’ve done so far this season. That leaves enough money for your favorite defense and a very solid flex option. 

Tournament

Last week, I ended up with pretty similar builds on FD an DK. This week I’ll use DK as a way to get exposure to a game I didn’t focus on with FD. I’ll eat the chalk with Hurts + Smith + Olave… but I’ll add Goedert at about 3% ownership. You can also do the same type of swap to Barkley instead like we talked about above. I’ll eat the chalk with Achane (who is still less popular than Mason and Akers). I like Pollard here for his volume as a nice pivot away from Mason and Akers so I’ll add him + Titans DEF. Then a ton of cheap options to fill out the rest of the lineup. Mix and match with whatever pieces you like best.

NOTE: If you only play on DK, feel free to build around any of the FD cores above. They’re all viable on both sites.

Yahoo

Cash Game

I’m going to triple up on Akers — he’s just too cheap for the lead RB on an elite offense. I’m also going back to the Mason well now that he isn’t priced up as he was on FanDuel … and back to Olave, too. Yahoo has priced up the dual-threat QBs, so let’s pay down for Jared Goff in what should be a shootout in Arizona. If we’re drafting Goff, we might as well pair him with Amon-Ra St. Brown. Ferguson at tight end and the Buccaneers’ defense leaves us with a solid amount of cash for our final two spots. 

Tournament

Dak seems like a nice value here so I’ll start there again. Lamb is very expensive and I do want to try go get him somewhere, but I’ll skip him for now. I’ll add Ferguson and to be a little different than on FD I’ll add Bateman. The Cowboys DEF is aggressive and Bateman might be due for some Shaheed type of catches. I can add Montgomery + Dortch here. I still like Achane here and Pollard + Titans DEF but plenty of room to play around with different options.