NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 17 – Fantasy Football Blueprint

Let’s take a look back at Week 16 first, because it set up a lot of how I want to play this slate.

As we talked about going into it, everybody was heavy on the Lions Steelers game. We did have some stacks built around that spot, but we also said we like to always make one lineup that fades the popular game. So we had plenty of DK Metcalf and Jameson Williams. It did not really pay off, but our non Lions Steelers game finished right at the cash line.

That lineup had Chris Olave, Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and some other nice pieces. Everything finished okay, but none of it really took off enough to get us to the top of the leaderboard. That is what has me wanting to go right back to Baker and Evans this week. We will see how it looks as we get into it, though.

We also saw on Christmas Day the other reason that you fade really popular players. Jahmyr Gibbs was somewhere around 70 percent owned, which is an absolutely insane number. We did have some Gibbs lineups, but our non Gibbs Dak Prescott and Jacory Croskey-Merritt stack was really the one that took off and gave us a chance to be in the running for first place.

That is what we want to find this week too. Where things get really popular, maybe the situation is not quite as good as the field thinks, and there are clear pivots or leverage spots we can target instead.

The Setup: One Clear Game Everyone Wants

This week there is one clear top game environment that everyone will be targeting. It is Cincinnati and Arizona. We are going to target it as well, probably, but the whole point is to look at ownership and see where we can get a little bit different while still keeping the upside.

I am not trying to get cute everywhere. I just want to be intentional about where I eat chalk and where I pivot.

Quarterback

Starting at quarterback, Joe Burrow is at the top. That makes sense given that game environment.

Then we see Trevor Lawrence, another popular game environment this week. I am more likely to steer away from the Jags and Colts. Those games tend to be a little lower scoring divisional games and I do not love treating them like a true shootout spot.

Then we see Jacoby Brissett. Again, he makes sense on the other side of the Burrow lineups. He is coming in under 10 percent ownership, and that is feasible if you want to go there.

But I am probably going to target Baker Mayfield, coming in just a little bit lower than that. We have seen the ceiling, and if the field is clustering around Burrow stacks, Baker is a way to still play a strong passing environment without being in the exact same builds.

After that we see Drake Maye in a popular spot, plus Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough. Then we get down into less than 5 percent ownership with Sam Darnold. I would actually rather go to the Carolina Panthers defense than chase Darnold.

We also see Jalen Hurts. I would rather go to Saquon Barkley, but we will see what his ownership looks like.

Then we get to Josh Allen. Josh Allen is interesting. I do not think this game really takes off enough to be a full stack, but I definitely want at least one game stack where I go Allen and Barkley. If that game hits the right script, that pairing can separate, and it does not require the whole thing to turn into a shootout.

Below that, there is not a lot else I am targeting at the quarterback position.

Running Back

At running back, at least on DraftKings, Ashton Jeanty is priced too low for his recent performance, but this is a scary game to me. Both teams are in the running for the first pick. It seems clear the Raiders ownership wants to tank the game. I think Pete Carroll is a goner. Geno Smith is a goner. So I do think they go out and play no matter what, but this is still a scary spot.

The Giants also would like the number one pick. I think they feel a little bit more secure with Jaxson Dart and Tyrone Tracy as their future, so I do not think they will necessarily tank it the same way.

Jeanty does have the best matchup for running backs, but at north of 40 percent ownership, I am going to fade him this week. I might get to one out of 10 lineups that have him, but mostly I will fade him. If he beats me, he beats me.

I will stay away from Jonathan Taylor.

I am going to stay away from Bucky Irving because I would rather go to the passing game.

I am going to stay away from Tyrone Tracy, also coming in at high ownership on the other side of Jeanty.

We get Travis Etienne. I am going to stay away from him too.

We get James Cook. I am going to stay away from him.

Then we get Chase Brown. He is expensive, but I do like him as a leverage play on all of the Burrow ownership. And I am sure we will see Ja’Marr Chase as the highest owned wide receiver. So I like going to Chase Brown here instead. It is a clean way to still benefit if Cincinnati scores, but you are not in the exact same construction as everybody else.

Then we get Barkley. I do like him this week.

We get Devon Achane. I do not mind Achane, but he is really expensive. I would rather pay down to some other options and build more balanced lineups this week.

TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson will take away from each other.

Kenneth Gainwell did what we thought he would do last week, and he could play that same role again this week against the Browns, but I will probably stay away there too.

Running back is a spot where ownership is doing a lot of the decision making for the field. I am comfortable being underweight on the biggest chalk and building in a way that lets the slate break for us.

Wide Receiver

At wide receiver, as expected, Ja’Marr Chase is coming in over 30 percent ownership, almost to 40. I think I will definitely fade him. He makes sense. Good matchup. He could pay it off. But I am more of a game theory player and I will almost fade him by default if he is that highly owned, especially when we have decent pivots.

Chase Brown is one leverage pivot, and you can even pivot down to Tee Higgins if you prefer, at about half the ownership.

Then we get Jakobi Meyers. I don’t love this play because the Jags spread it around a little bit, and I think that game is going to be more of a lower scoring game this week.

We get Stefon Diggs coming in. He has some incentives and he is relatively popular. I am probably going to stay away from the New England and Jets game as well.

We get Jaxon Smith-Njigba coming in. I will probably fade him and go to the Carolina Panthers defense. I am finding myself having to pay down for defense this week and Carolina is the one that seems most respectable in that lower tier.

Then we get Mike Evans. He is coming in higher than I thought he would be. I will probably still eat the chalk there. He is priced well and I am looking for one more big game from Mayfield and Evans.

If we are not going to Achane, Jaylen Waddle makes sense, but I am probably more likely to just go to Darren Waller instead.

We get Tetairoa McMillan. We get Wan’Dale Robinson. Chris Olave is definitely in play again. He is priced up, but he is in another good matchup where they should have to pass. And he is coming in at low enough ownership that he is a solid play.

Tre Tucker is interesting at around 10 percent ownership. He is super cheap, and this gives us great leverage off the Ashton Jeanty ownership. He does not need much to pay off, and he is a deep play threat, and that is exactly where the Giants can get beat.

Darius Slayton on the other side is in play.

If you are going to the Jags, I would rather go to Brian Thomas Jr. at much lower ownership than Jakobi Meyers.

Scrolling down, there is not a lot else I really love. You could go to Alec Pierce. You could go back to Michael Wilson. Both are super low owned, but they will not be priorities for me.

I have built one lineup with Baker, Evans, and Emeka Egbuka at near zero ownership. He has not been performing as well, but we know the talent he has. If you guess right there, you leapfrog the field at such low ownership.

Further down, Jack Bech for the Raiders at near zero ownership makes sense too.

Tight End

At tight end, as we expect, Trey McBride is far and away the top option, coming in at almost 30 percent ownership and double the next closest.

Then we get Michael Mayer with Brock Bowers out. It makes sense as chalk, but I am not going to play him at that ownership. He is super cheap and if just going to him instead of Jeanty you still get plenty of leverage on the field. And if he does well and McBride doesn’t pay off he’s also great leverage there.

But I will probably play McBride, and I will get leverage elsewhere. Most of the lineups are going to be McBride, Burrow, and Ja’Marr Chase. So just by going a little different in other positions, I can still eat the chalk with McBride.

As I scroll down, Hunter Henry is in a good spot. Tyler Warren is in a good spot. Juwan Johnson is in a good spot. I do not love any of those, but they are all playable.

Theo Johnson is in a decent spot.

Mike Gesicki is interesting if you really want to go full leverage on that Cincinnati passing game and you are fading the most popular pieces.

Chigoziem Okonkwo is in a decent spot.

Then we get Darren Waller all the way down at the bottom. I actually like this play quite a bit. I will probably have at least one double tight end lineup with Waller and McBride. If you do not want to pay up for McBride, and I will have some lineups that do not, I will look to Waller as a super cheap, super low owned option instead. I’m also going to play around with Some Mayer and Waller lineups and see what other studs I can fit in.

Defense

At defense, people are targeting the Steelers and the Titans. I think that is a mistake given how well New Orleans has been playing, but it shows you people are reaching down a little lower trying to find something.

People are looking at the Patriots, that makes sense, looking at the Browns, and then Carolina coming in again.

Carolina is top five in ownership, but the price is so low and I think they are pretty feasible. I am probably going to Carolina.

You could go to the New York Giants defense if you really want to build leverage against the Ashton Jeanty play.

You could get wild and do something with the Cincinnati Bengals defense or the Arizona Cardinals defense. I am probably not going to do that, but if you are really throwing a dart and completely fading the game, you might as well throw one of those in a lineup. One way the extreme chalk in this game fails is through the defenses doing well.

You could also go Las Vegas Raiders defense versus the Giants. It is not a defense we like to target, but if the Giants are the team that actually tanks the game, that could make sense.

Final Build Direction

Overall, after considering ownership, I am going to stick to my Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans lineup. I was hoping Evans would be a little bit lower owned, but I am okay with it.

I am also okay if you want to start with Jacoby Brissett and get a little bit different in that targeted game instead of starting with Burrow.

I do like going to Chase Brown.

You could go down to Tee Higgins for leverage against the Ja’Marr Chase ownership.

And if you are going way down the list, you could go to the New York Giants defense against the Raiders. Again, you are making a double bet that Ashton Jeanty fails as chalk. And if he is going to fail, it will happen in one of two ways. Either the Raiders passing game gets going or the Giants defense gets going.

I am making my bet that the Raiders passing game gets a little bit going. Tre Tucker is so cheap that he does not need much to pay off, and he is a deep play threat, and that is exactly where the Giants can get beat.

I do like Saquon. I like Chase Brown. There is not a lot else that I really love at the running back position.

I will be mixing around different wide receivers, seeing what I can fit and what I like around some of those other stacks.