Not all Fantasy Points are Created Equal
If you get to choose between a QB who is projected to score 300 points and a RB who is projected to score 300 points, who do you pick?
Well, it depends on what the other players at the position are projected to score. That’s the idea behind value-based drafting. It gives you a way to fairly compare players at different positions.
So, in the above case, if the QB is projected to score 50 points higher than other QBs but the RB is only expected to score 40 points higher than other RBs, then the QB is actually more valuable to you, even though they’re both projected to score 300 points.
Traditional value-based drafting uses the value-over-replacement concept, meaning it compares a player’s projected fantasy points to the projected fantasy points of the first player not being drafted as a starter. That’s a good (and arbitrary) way to rank players at a certain position, but it doesn’t really help your fantasy football draft strategy.
Do you really care what that replacement player is projected to do?
It doesn’t matter whether Aaron Rodgers is projected to score 300 points more than the replacement player or whether he’s projected to score 50 points more than the replacement player because you are not playing against a team full of replacement players! Over the course of the season, you are playing against a team full of the average starters at each position. We only care how Aaron Rodgers is expected to perform against the average starting QB! If each of your players outscores the average starter more often than not you’re going to come out ahead of your opponent and will find yourself in the fantasy playoffs.