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NFL Best Bets Week 12

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Source of my betting simulations -> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

23-9-1 Against the Spread

Week 12 Starting Bankroll $345.25
TEN +8.5 -110 @ $10 
PIT -3.5 -110 @ $20 
TB -6 -110 @ $20 
^parlay +595 @ $10

previous Week 11 (Bankroll $366.32)
BUF -2.0 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
ATL +2.5 -108 @ $10 loss
GB -6.5 -108 @ $10 loss
^parlay +602 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 10 (Bankroll $408.46)
Bal -6.0 -112 @ $20 loss
NE +6.0 -112 @ $20 win +17.86
DET -3.5 -108 @ $20 loss
^parlay +590 @ $20 loss

Previous Week 9 (Bankroll $322.34)
TB +8.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
NE +3.5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
WSH -3.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^parlay +590 @ $10 win +59.00

Previous Week 8 (Bankroll $305.62)
IND +5 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
BUF -3 -110 @ $10 win 
 +9.09
WSH +3 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

Kyle Juszczyk agrees to two-year deal with 49ers
The Pro Bowl fullback will sign a new contract with the 49ers, days after they cut him.
(Mar 15 -- ProFootballTalk.com)

Source: 49ers, Juszczyk reunite after brief split
After a brief parting, fullback Kyle Juszczyk is returning to the 49ers on a two-year, $8 million deal, a source told ESPN.
(Mar 15 -- ESPN)

Kyle Juszczyk agrees to two-year deal with 49ers
The Pro Bowl fullback will sign a new contract with the 49ers, days after they cut him.
(Mar 15 -- Yahoo Sports)

Report: Juszczyk returning to 49ers, agrees to two-year, $8M contract
The San Francisco 49ers released Kyle Juszczyk on Monday, but reportedly are bringing him back on a new deal.
(Mar 15 -- Yahoo Sports)

2025 NFL free agency tracker: Updates on top 100 free agents, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs among best available
A running tracker of all the big free agent deals and player movement
(Mar 15 -- CBS Sports)