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Betting Preview, Cheat Sheet, Tipsy Picks

NFL Best Bets

Betting based on advanced Simulation Models.

Thanks for following along with the simulator experiment, where I take bets on any game more than 3.5 points off from Vegas odds then what the model says the lines should be.

Take a look at the site I use for Betting and DFS Simulations https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

15-5-1 Against the Spread

Week 8 Starting Bankroll $305.62

Best Bets Week 8
IND +5 -112 @ $10
BUF -3 -110 @ $10
WSH +3 -115 @ $10
^moneyline parlay +941 @ $10

Previous Week 7 (Bankroll $309.04)
NO +2.5 -110 @ $10 loss 
DET +2.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
SF -1 -112 @ $10 loss
IND -3 -130 @ $10 win +7.69
ARI +2.5 -102 @ $10 win +9.80
^parlay +2317 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 6 (Bankroll $309.52)
SF -3.5 -105 @ $10 win +9.52
IND +2.5 even @ $10 win +10.00
JAX +1.5 -110 @ $10 loss
^parlay +645 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 5 (Bankroll $312.26)
IND +2.5 +100 @ $10 loss
BAL -2.5 -112 @$10 win +8.93
GB -3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
^Parlay +594 @ $10 loss

Previous Week 4 (Bankroll $285.04)
IND +1.5 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
NO +2 -108 @ $10 push
 ^parlay +267 @ $10 push/win +9.26
JAX +7 -115 @ $10 win +8.70 

Previous Week 3 (Bankroll $243.08)
GB +3 -120 @ $10 win +8.33
IND -1 -112 @ $10 win +8.93
^Parlay +247 @ $10 win +24.70 

Previous Week 2 (Bankroll $245.12)
TB +7.5 -115 @ $10 win +8.70
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 loss
NO +6 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
^Parlay +587 @ $10 loss 

Previous Week 1 (Starting Bankroll $200)
NE +8 -108 @ $10 win +9.26
SF -4.5 -110 @ $10 win +9.09
^Parlay +268 @$10 win +26.77

Recent News

Which WR should Pats target if Higgins is unavailable? Perry, Breer weigh in
Phil Perry and Albert Breer discuss what the Patriots' backup plan should be if Tee Higgins isn't available in free agency.
(Feb 17 -- Yahoo Sports)

Najee Harris prepares to take four career 1,000-yard seasons to free agency
Running back Najee Harris entered the league in 2021 as a first-round pick of the Steelers.
(Feb 17 -- ProFootballTalk.com)

QB Ward on teams who skip him: 'I'll remember'
When asked what he would say to questions from teams about him not finishing his final game with Miami, Cam Ward said "you're either going to draft me or you're not."
(Feb 17 -- ESPN)

NFL Reserve/Futures Deals: 2/17/25
One reserve/futures deal to pass along: Houston Texans LS Tucker Addington Interestingly, the Texans gave Tucker Addington some extra cash to join their offseason roster. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that the long snapper got $10K in bonus money for putting pen to paper. The Sam Houston State has bounced around the NFL a bit […]
(Feb 17 -- Pro Football Rumors)

Lawsuit against Jay-Z is dismissed without a settlement
In December 2024, Jay-Z was sued for allegedly raping a 13-year-old more than 20 years ago.
(Feb 17 -- ProFootballTalk.com)