Week 13 DK Building Blocks
If the football season was an episode of Red Zone then gentlemen we’ve entered the witching hour. It’s the final quarter of the season, a time when we should have enough data on teams to make some confident decisions. It’s a time where usually some of the hardest decisions come from the salary side of things as players who had been mispriced have seen their price rise to their production. I’m not sure that’s really the case for this set of games. It’s been a wacky season and it only continues this week. There are multiple starting QB’s not playing and a few more questionable. No one knows who’s playing QB or RB in Miami, there are people that will play Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson and quite possibly together. The uncertainty of the slate is something we should look to try and take advantage of. Then in turn play off the “certainty” of others in their plays as a way to get ahead.
In the first part of the season, I wrote up the typical DFS article you see in wild, “The Plays”
Recently I’ve gone back to an article style that I used to write that discussed game stacks. We’ve seen them emerge more prominently in the GPP landscape and it just felt like the right time to bring it back. I fully intended on doing the same this week, until I looked at the ownership numbers last night. I think it’s a great time to try out a new style of article, one that plays off of those same ownership numbers to see where we can leverage them in our favor. I’ll still list three games that I like stacking, and of course players at certain positions that I’m considering rostering.
Austin Ekeler ($7,100)- 30%
First off Ekeler isn’t going to see 16 targets this week. That isn’t happening again. I wouldn’t however rule out the possibility of double-digit targets, although I don’t think that it’s likely. The price tag on Ekeler has risen to a point that we’re looking for a massive game from him to make him worth rostering in a large field GPP. While the Chargers run more plays than anyone else in the league the Pats are only ranked 24th. This means fewer opportunities for Ekeler to amass those numbers.
This is a huge number for any player to have an upper-tier ownership number.
I’d be looking to the passing game to gain leverage on this and hope other options in this Chargers offense are able to score the touchdowns and thus making it even more difficult for Ekeler to hit and exceed 21+ fantasy points.
Hunter Henry ($4800) 3.5%
It’s been a struggle to find tight ends this year. This means you get to kind of double-dip here. A TE w/ a high target load, but one that hasn’t tallied considerable yardage numbers. While he is touchdown-dependent those scores are exactly what we need to take away from the Ekeler owners in this strategy.
Keenan Allen ($8100) 10%
He’s expensive as he should be, after the disappointing game last week and the rise in people preferring Ekeler we’ve seen a decline in ownership to a sub 10% mark. He still saw 10 targets last week and that is what we’re looking for when trying to find leverage.
Mike Williams ($4800) 3%
Last week despite the heavy workload that Ekeler had, Mike Williams didn’t see his role change that much. He still got his 5 targets and while he wasn’t able to find the end zone that isn’t indicative of what will happen this week. With most of the attention likely to funnel towards Ekeler and Allen this could be a nice week for Williams to have a huge game at 2% ownership.
Devontae Booker ($5500)- 30%
The absence of Josh Jacobs in a cushy match-up has elevated Booker’s ownership to nearly 30%. The combination of the game against the Jets and the attractive price point certainly justify that number. Unlike Ekeler this is a number that Booker can achieve without ever finding his way in the end zone and a limited pass game workload. How can he fail though? Again if other people are scoring touchdowns he might not hit the ceiling that you need to find yourself at the top of the leader board.
Nelson Agholor ($5200) 3%
Agholor has really come into his own this season. Developing chemistry with Carr which has lead to 6 Touchdowns so far this year. He did tweak his ankle last week and was limited in practice. If he plays, he’s one of the guys that you can look to for leverage from Booker.
Darren Waller ($6100) 9%
In most detentions, Waller has had a successful TE season. The challenge is that in DFS he has seen his price be on the higher end of the spectrum and failed to hit the expected total, let alone the ceiling, for most of the year. That early-season game against New Orleans a distant memory he still has seen 7+ targets all but 3 times this year. Very much like Hunter Henry one of the biggest reasons for his lack of production from a Fantasy Points perspective has been meager yardage totals. The Jets have given up the 5th most points to TE’s this year, including 9 touchdowns. This might be the blowup game we’ve been hoping for from Waller for awhile.
Derek Carr ($5800)-3%
If either of the earlier mentioned players has a good game it will be in large part because this guy has been able to throw them the ball. It’s going to be hard to roster Carr after he’s burned me so many times this year. Literally every week he’s done me wrong. The games he’s done well? I had none. The games he crashed and burned? I was all over him. This match-up is everything you could ask for and I likely will look to Carr one more time.
Brandin Cooks ($5600) 29%
I’m a fan of the Cooks play. He’s likely to see WR1 targets, and he’s nowhere near the price point that he should be for that type of volume. As discussed last week Houston throws the ball a ton, and as a result, I think we can easily project Cooks to 10+ targets. At 5600 I’m not sure there’s a player on his team that’s worth mentioning in terms of leverage.
Jonathan Taylor ($5700) 2%
My thought is that this number ends up higher tomorrow. But if you’re looking for a way that Cooks doesn’t meet production the only thing I can think of is Taylor runs the ball effectively and the keep it away from Houston.
David Montgomery ($5500) 28%
The earlier mentioned Booker at a similar price is the better play. Yes, it’s true that the Lions aren’t good against the run, in fact, they’re awful. But guess what? Montgomery isn’t good at running the ball. He’s a complete bust that has only had a serviceable fantasy season because he’s the only show in town. Last week was the first time he eclipsed the 100 yard mark and even had a ceiling game.
Allen Robinson ($6700) 10%
Robinson is the obvious play to get leverage here. The only thing is he didn’t practice most of the week and was limited on Friday. Mooney looks like he’ll be out and if Robinson joins him then Anthony Miller ($3100) becomes very interesting. Until then I’d rather pivot off Montgomery with Robinson and bet get double-digit targets, hopefully, most are catch-able, and finds his way into the end zone.
Browns @ Titans (-5.5) O/U 53.5
Tons of options on both sides and it’s the highest total game of the week. Love this spot to stack. Derrick Henry ($9200) 10% projects to be super low owned due to that price tag. It December so it’s always reasonable to roster Henry.
Jags @ Vikings (-10.5) O/U 51
Danger taught us about big-bodied receivers and the problems that they’ve given the Vikings this year. I love Chark as a run back with the Vikings side being Cousins+AT or a Dalvin Cook/Justin Jefferson combo.
Raiders @ Jets (+8) O/U 46
This isn’t a huge total, and I don’t think that it goes over. The players in this game are just cheap. Denzel Mims ($4100) has been seeing massive target work over the last three weeks. Jamison Crowder ($5100) has had huge games when playing with Sam Darnold ($5000). We’ve of course talked about the Vegas side earlier.
Others I’m considering that haven’t been mentioned
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6000)
Aaron Rodgers ($6800)
Jared Goff ($5800)
Running Backs –
Chris Carson ($6300)
Aaron Jones ($7200)
James Robinson ($7300)
DeAndre Hopkins ($7800)
Robert Woods ($5900) – Love this play
Michael Thomas ($7000)
DeVante Parker ($6400)
Jordan Akins ($2900)
Mike Gesicki ($4200)
TJ Hockenson (5000)
Green Bay ($3800)