Week 2 Fantasy Football Recap: Top 10 Takeaways
We are officially two weeks into the NFL season, which means our sample size of fantasy football data has doubled! We aren’t yet at the point where in-season results are more predictive than preseason rankings (that usually comes in Week 4), but we do now have the very beginnings of trends to consider. Here are my picks for the top 10 things to take away from Week 2’s fantasy football action.
Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 2
1. Rome Odunze is the Bears’ WR1
This one isn’t under-the-radar at all, as Odunze was the WR4 in Week 2 with 28.3 Half-PPR points. But it’s still worth emphasizing that this wasn’t just one big game. Through two weeks, Odunze leads the Bears in route participation rate (93%), target share (28%), air yards share (46%), and first-read target share (33%).
Ben Johnson has built this offense around the 2024 ninth-overall pick, and so far, it’s working (for fantasy, anyway). Odunze’s rookie year was uninspiring, but with this usage, it won’t be long before we forget all about that and consider him a weekly WR2 … if not more. Meanwhile, DJ Moore deserves a downgrade. His usage has been okay, but it’s clear that he is no longer Chicago’s WR1.
2. It’s Over for Evan Engram
After Week 1, I listed Engram as a player to drop, but I hedged and said he should be held in deeper leagues. After Week 2, I’m ready to say he’s droppable in essentially all formats. The veteran TE has a 35% route participation rate and a 9% target share in Denver’s offense. That’s nowhere near good enough to be a fantasy starter, especially with Bo Nix seemingly regressing in his sophomore season.
3. It’s Almost Over For Other Aging Tight Ends
Engram’s situation is by far the worst, but it’s not looking great for a few other veterans who were drafted as TE1s heading into this season. David Njoku has just an 11% target share so far in the Browns’ offense, and Harold Fannin Jr. is already cutting into his routes. Mark Andrews has a brutal 8% target share on a mediocre 71% route participation rate, and Isaiah Likely is coming back soon. T.J. Hockenson’s usage numbers (17% target share on 76% route participation) are less concerning, but he has just 27 receiving yards through two games, both of which were without Jordan Addison.
Given that tight end is once again easily the most scarce fantasy position, it’s not time to give up on these three players yet. Njoku benefits from the Browns’ high-volume offense, we know Andrews can rack up TDs even on low volume, and Hockenson has actually seen okay usage. But if you drafted any of these players to be your TE1, it’s time to check your waivers for guys like the aforementioned Fannin and Juwan Johnson.
4. The Kyle Pitts Renaissance
Believe it or not, the one non-elite TE who is actually seeing very healthy usage is Kyle Pitts. Yes, that Kyle Pitts. According to PFF, he ran a route on every single one of Michael Penix Jr.’s dropbacks last night. According to Fantasy Points Data, his 86% participation rate through two games ranks second at the position to only Trey McBride. His 21% target share ranks fifth.
So far, all this usage hasn’t really turned into massive production for Pitts. He caught four of five targets for 37 yards in Week 1, and seven of eight for 59 yards against the Buccaneers. But, especially while other TEs see their usage trending down, it’s still very encouraging. We’ve been fooled by Kyle Pitts before, so I won’t get too excited, but he’s currently seeing usage that should make him a fantasy TE1.
5. The Colts Are (Probably) Legit
Through two weeks, the Indianapolis Colts have yet to punt the football. In Half-PPR fantasy, they have the overall QB2, RB3, WR20, and TE4. They rank third in the NFL in both offensive EPA per play and success rate, the only team in the top three in both categories.
Now, we’ve been fooled before by surprising teams starting red-hot only to cool off. The 2024 Saints were the talk of the league with 91 points in their first two matchups, then averaged under 17 points per game for the rest of the season.
But I think what the Colts are doing is relatively sustainable. Obviously, they’ll have to punt eventually. But they have excellent weapons, and Shane Steichen has always been a great playcaller. He’s making it easy for Daniel Jones, who ranks second in first-read target rate at 84% and has also scored three touchdowns on the ground. If you can invest in the key pieces of this offense, it’s probably a good idea.
6. Cam Skattebo is the Rookie RB1?
The theme of Week 2 was rookie running backs disappointing. Ashton Jeanty looked lost in pass protection, Omarion Hampton fumbled late, RJ Harvey is stuck behind J.K. Dobbins, TreVeyeon Henderson is the Patriots’ RB3, and Kaleb Johnson may never see the field again after an embarrassing special teams mistake.
However, one rookie running back posted a massively positive trend in Week 2. After being the Giants’ RB3 in both snap share (11%) and carries (two) in Week 1, Cam Skattebo was New York’s RB1 this week. He led the team with 11 carries on a 51% snap share, and added in three targets on a team-high 40% route participation rate. Thanks to a goal-line TD, he finished with a solid 12.9 Half-PPR points.
Now, the title of this section is obviously an exaggeration. Tyrone Tracy Jr. remained involved in this backfield, and the Giants’ offense probably won’t score 37 points every week. But Skattebo is already a potentially viable flex play, and his role in New York’s backfield is trending in the right direction.
7. The Lions are Okay
In Week 1, the Lions scored 13 points. In hindsight, it’s easy to say that this was a tough matchup with a seemingly dominant Packers’ defense. At the time, it was their lowest score since Week 7 of the 2023 season, so some concern was justified.
Thankfully, Jared Goff and Co. put that concern to rest with a 52-point annihilation of the Bears in Week 2. Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery all hit pay-dirt, and Amon-Ra St. Brown scored three times. Sam LaPorta didn’t get in on the fun, but his backup, Brock Wright, did. The Lions still probably won’t be as dominant as they were in 2024, but they are back on track to be a top offense to target for fantasy purposes.
8. The Dolphins Are Okay … Kind Of
The Dolphins’ Week 1 performance was even more concerning than the Lions, as they scored only eight points against the Colts. It also doesn’t help matters that they, unlike the Lions, also struggled in 2024. However, they also bounced back, although not quite as explosively, with a solid 27-point outing in Week 2. In fact, aside from a few terrible interceptions by Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ offense wasn’t even that bad in Week 1.
Across both weeks, Miami’s offense ranks 10th in the league in yards per play. And, importantly for fantasy, that production has been hugely condensed — De’Von Achane (22%), Tyreek Hill (21%), and Jaylen Waddle (18%) account for 61% of the team’s targets. Achane has also handled 18 of the team’s 21 RB carries.
They might not be a good NFL team this year, but I like Miami’s chances to continue supporting these three players as viable fantasy options. That is, I like their chances to do so until either Mike McDaniel gets fired or Tyreek forces his way off the team, both of which could happen any week at this point.
9. Quinshon Judkins’ NFL Debut
After signing with the Browns less than 10 days earlier, second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins led Cleveland’s backfield on Sunday. He only played 19 snaps, but was always involved with 10 carries and nine routes (three targets) on those snaps. Jerome Ford (six) and Dylan Sampson (four) only managed to match Judkins’ carry total combined, although they did rack up nine targets between the two of them.
Going forward, if this was his usage having just joined the team, Judkins should eventually be the Browns’ clear RB1. His fantasy value will depend on Cleveland’s overall offensive effectiveness and how much volume he can consolidate, but he should at least be a flex play.
Meanwhile, Sampson and Ford will likely compete for a third-down role. As of right now, Ford seems to be in the lead in that competition, with 35 snaps and 24 routes to 18 and nine ofr Sampson in Week 2. But it wouldn’t be surprising if Cleveland eventually goes with an all-rookie approach to their backfield. That is, until Judkins potentially gets suspended.
10. The Injury Bug Hits Minnesota
This is the final blurb in this article in part because we got more information as I was writing. Aaron Jones is officially headed for IR with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy is expected to miss two to four weeks with an ankle injury of his own.
Obviously, these two players lose a solid chunk in value, but injuries like these also come with trickle-down effects. The most obviously affected player is Jordan Mason, who should dominate touches in the Vikings’ backfield while Jones is sidelined. The Vikings just added Cam Akers (again), to give you some idea of how their RB depth is looking.
Meanwhile, McCarthy’s play over the first two weeks was up-and-down, so moving to Carson Wentz might not actually be a huge downgrade for Minnesota’s passing game. Wentz doesn’t bring the same ceiling we were picturing for McCarthy coming into the year, but it didn’t look as though McCarthy was on track to hit the top of his range of outcomes anyway. Still, Justin Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings’ weapons all should probably be downgraded slightly until Wentz proves he can be at least competent in Kevin O’Connell’s offense.