The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots
Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.
Quarterbacks
Cheap QB week? The ownership sure is saying that. We have Josh Allen at the top, but the overwhelming favorite plays this week will be cheap after Allen. J.J. McCarthy, if he goes, has a choice matchup. Brissett to McBride is always money, we have a Jameis Winston sighting, and how can we ignore Rodgers against the Bengals? Can we trust Mahomes in Denver? Stafford in Seattle? I’m leaving them off my plays. Of the cheap guys, it’s Brissett, or Stroud/Mills, but I am mostly loading up Aaron Rodgers…
Top End Pivots:
Herbert
Mid Range Targets:
Rodgers
Brissett
Purdy
Tipsy Pick:
Young
Running Backs
CMC leads the way again, but I am starting to not like his payoff odds. Rico will be very popular and likely the only other RB at over 20% owned. Great chalk in Jaylen Warren and my lock of the week in Josh Jacobs come in right below those two in ownership. Chase Brown, Bijan, and ETN are all getting love this week as well, and for good reason. If Dobbins gets ruled out, I expect RJ Harvey to spike as well. Marks, White, Vidal all script for good spots as well.
Top End Pivots:
Cook
Kyren Williams
Mid Range Targets:
Vidal
White
Marks
Value Targets:
Spears
Tipsy Pick:
Gainwell
Wide Receivers
Very spread out ownership for receivers this week, with all the high-end guys rising to the top in JSN, Chase, Jefferson, and Puka. Interestingly, Jauan Jennings keeps popping in ownership, and will Rodgers forgive Cal Austin enough to trust him this week? I’m in on Wan’Dale with Jameis and going back to Rome. I don’t believe that DK Metcalf will stay under 10% in a choice pairing, and with Ladd and QJ dinged up, Keenan Allen might be my smash WR of the week.
Top End Pivots:
Nico Collins
Egbuka
Rice (contrarian play against a great D?)
Mid Range Targets:
Allen
Addison
Robinson
Rome
Tee Higgins
Value Plays:
Doubs
Austin
Tipsy:
Michael Wilson/Dortch (Marvin Harrison OUT)
Tight Ends
Paying up for McBride, regardless of Chalk, is a great life decision and is essentially the only chalk.
Kittle will be up there, and Hockenson, Theo Johnson, Pitts, Andrews, or Otton all prove excellent pivots.
Top End Pivots:
If you have the money, just play McBride
Mid Range Targets:
Kittle
Otton
Andrews
Values:
Hockenson at 3k? vs the Bears???
Tipsy:
Jonnu Smith… you just load up against the Bengals…
