The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Quarterbacks
Williams and Dart lead the way on ownership this week, seem to be good chalk. Williams gets an all-time bad defense in the Bengals, and Dart is completely underpriced at $5200 and will lead to a lot of space to pay up elsewhere. Allen and Mahomes split the next tier of ownership in a matchup that has averaged 54 points a game throughout their history together. I prefer Allen, but both are in play. Lots of good matchups, and ownership should be spread out, making pivots pointless, as you can play the guy that fits for the most part. I know it seems nuts… but Geno has Meyer and Bowers back, and Jacksonville is bad.

Top End Pivots
Herbert
Maye

Mid Range Targets:
Daniel Jones
Mac Jones
Stafford
Love

Tipsy Pick:
Smith

Running Backs
Let’s get this out of the way: Monangai will be over 50% owned, and I will be over the field on that number. Free Square. CMC is in a fantastic bounce-back spot and could break the slate. I am out on Henderson and Tracy chalk. Warren is in a great position at a significantly lower price, with Vidal and Kyren rounding out the chalk, both in good spots. Pivoting up to Taylor at under 10% is valid if you can afford it. Jacobs and Cook deserve a closer look, while I am out on Bijan after being burned, and it’s a tough matchup. $5900 for Chase Brown is near a lock, and I’m getting tipsy with Monty getting some run as the Vikings should be in bad field position most of the game and the Lions feel like they eventually will be grinding it out with their backs.

Top End Pivots:
Taylor
Cook
Jacobs
Gibbs

Mid Range Targets:
Brown
Vidal

Tipsy Pick:
Monty

Wide Receivers
Puka, St. Brown, Chase, Rice are high-end chalk. Metcalf, Wan’Dale, Ladd for mid-range, with Jennings and Zaccheaus as the bargain chalk. I can’t make a ton of arguments against them, but let’s find those pivots anyway. Brian Thomas, without Hunter, could see an uptick in targets. Going with Adams can save you money and ownership over Puka. Rome projecting under 10%, if true, is a great play. Justin Jefferson being under 4%??? Yes please. 

Top End Pivots:
Jefferson
Adams

Mid Range Targets:
Ladd
Allen
Rome
Tee Higgins
Diggs

Value Plays:
Tucker
Boutte

Tipsy:
Dyami Brown

Tight Ends
Kittle, Kraft, Warren, LaPorta, and Bowers should be big-name chalk with Theo Johnson being the lowered price spot. I’m out on over-owned bargain TEs usually. Pitts is in a great spot and looking to be almost unowned. I will have a lot of him. Gadsden seems to be the real deal, and Henry should remain a steady option. To save money and fade the chalk, look at Hock, Schultz, and Juwan Johnson.

Top End Pivots:
Pitts
Kincaid

Mid Range Targets:
Schultz
Hockenson

Values:
Don’t love the cheaper plays

Tipsy:
Freiermuth