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Our Ranks vs ADP

It’s helpful to know who we like better and worse than ADP. Just as we can use the delta column on the cheat sheet to find value – knowing when we have to reach and when we can wait – we can use these tables to get a sense of what positions we can wait on.

This is a list of our top-100 ranked players sorted by the difference between our rank and their ADP. Curtis Samuel, for example, we rank him 99 but his ADP is 132, meaning we like him 33 spots higher than most. At the bottom of the list are the players we like less than their ADP.

PlayerTeamPosRankADPDelta
Curtis SamuelWASWR9913233
Michael GallupDALWR9012232
Will FullerMIAWR8010626
D.J. MooreCARWR426220
Deebo SamuelSFWR779720
Brandin CooksHOUWR8410319
Mike WilliamsLACWR8910819
Noah FantDENTE9411319
Brandon AiyukSFWR496314
Robby AndersonCARWR748814
Jerry JeudyDENWR698213
Tyler BoydCINWR819413
Chase ClaypoolPITWR576912
Jaylen WaddleMIAWR9710912
James RobinsonJACRB384911
Odell BeckhamCLEWR586810
Tee HigginsCINWR63729
Kenny GolladayNYGWR64739
Laviska ShenaultJACWR951049
Courtland SuttonDENWR68768
Robert TonyanGBTE87958
Calvin RidleyATLWR15227
Diontae JohnsonPITWR53607
A.J. BrownTENWR18246
Mark AndrewsBALTE47536
D.J. CharkJACWR79856
CeeDee LambDALWR30355
Javonte WilliamsDENRB59645
JuJu Smith-SchusterPITWR75805
Tyreek HillKCWR8124
DK MetcalfSEAWR16204
Justin JeffersonMINWR21254
Terry McLaurinWASWR29334
Chris GodwinTBWR41454
Dallas GoedertPHITE86904
Antonio GibsonWASRB14173
David MontgomeryCHIRB26293
Allen RobinsonCHIWR36393
Tyler LockettSEAWR51543
DeVonta SmithPHIWR76793
Joe MixonCINRB17192
Robert WoodsLARWR40422
Amari CooperDALWR44462
T.J. HockensonDETTE55572
Jonathan TaylorINDRB9101
Najee HarrisPITRB13141
Miles SandersPHIRB35361
Mike EvansTBWR37381
Cooper KuppLARWR50511
Logan ThomasWASTE85861
Antonio BrownTBWR92931
Christian McCaffreyCARRB110
Dalvin CookMINRB220
Derrick HenryTENRB330
Alvin KamaraNORB440
Ezekiel ElliottDALRB550
Nick ChubbCLERB660
Davante AdamsGBWR770
George KittleSFTE28280
Mike DavisATLRB56560
Ja’Marr ChaseCINWR66660
Trey SermonSFRB83830
Aaron JonesGBRB109-1
Travis KelceKCTE1211-1
Darren WallerLVTE2726-1
Keenan AllenLACWR3231-1
Damien HarrisNERB7271-1
AJ DillonGBRB9392-1
J.K. DobbinsBALRB2523-2
Chris CarsonSEARB3432-2
Adam ThielenMINWR4543-2
Kyle PittsATLTE4644-2
Chase EdmondsARIRB6765-2
Saquon BarkleyNYGRB118-3
Clyde Edwards-HelaireKCRB2421-3
Josh AllenBUFQB3330-3
Julio JonesTENWR4340-3
Ronald JonesTBRB7875-3
Stefon DiggsBUFWR1915-4
Patrick MahomesKCQB2016-4
Josh JacobsLVRB3127-4
DeAndre HopkinsARIWR2318-5
D’Andre SwiftDETRB3934-5
Kareem HuntCLERB5448-6
Darrell HendersonLARRB6052-8
Austin EkelerLACRB2213-9
Aaron RodgersGBQB6555-10
Russell WilsonSEAQB7161-10
Kyler MurrayARIQB4837-11
Lamar JacksonBALQB5241-11
Michael CarterNYJRB8877-11
Ryan TannehillTENQB10089-11
Dak PrescottDALQB6250-12
Justin HerbertLACQB7058-12
Melvin GordonDENRB8270-12
Rob GronkowskiTBTE9684-12
Myles GaskinMIARB6147-14
Raheem MostertSFRB7359-14
Tom BradyTBQB9174-17
Leonard FournetteTBRB9878-20

So what do we see from the above list? Well, WRs really stand out. We like a lot of WRs quite a bit more than their ADP. This means we can wait on WR, while we solidify our starting lineup at other positions. If you’re in position to steal a stud WR, go for it, but don’t panic and reach for one.

Those mid-rounds are full of value for us. DJ Moore may drop to the 5th or 6th for us. Then we’ve got players like Aiyuk, Claypook, Jeudy, and a few others. Lots of solid options. Load up on RB early, get a top-QB earlier than you’re used to, and try to land a top-tier TE.

Let’s check out the next 100 so we can get a sense of who we can target in the later rounds.

Van JeffersonLARWR195314119
Tyrell WilliamsDETWR17324774
O.J. HowardTBTE18225573
Breshad PerrimanDETWR20026060
Austin HooperCLETE15821759
Parris CampbellINDWR18324259
Jakobi MeyersNEWR13318855
Gabriel DavisBUFWR15520954
Eric EbronPITTE18423551
Blake JarwinDALTE18623751
Daniel JonesNYGQB18924051
DeVante ParkerMIAWR12116948
Emmanuel SandersBUFWR15920748
Sterling ShepardNYGWR15219846
Nelson AgholorNEWR14819244
Anthony FirkserTENTE16720336
Irv Smith JrMINTE11815133
Rondale MooreARIWR14617832
Randall CobbGBWR17620832
Russell GageATLWR14317330
Cole BeasleyBUFWR14417228
James WhiteNERB16319128
Jamison CrowderNYJWR19021828
Jonnu SmithNETE12615327
Marvin JonesJACWR10613125
Jared CookLACTE14116625
Bryan EdwardsLVWR16218624
Tyler HigbeeLARTE11113322
Terrace MarshallCARWR16118019
Tre’Quan SmithNOWR19121019
Elijah MooreNYJWR13214917
Marquez CallawayNOWR13915617
Phillip LindsayHOURB11913516
Adam TrautmanNOTE16918415
Corey DavisNYJWR10411814
Jalen ReagorPHIWR16017414
Mike GesickiMIATE10912011
Henry RuggsLVWR11712811
Sony MichelLARRB14215210
T.Y. HiltonINDWR1301399
Gerald EverettSEATE1811898
Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR1972058
Trey LanceSFQB1281346
Marquise BrownBALWR1101155
Trevor LawrenceJACQB1121175
Evan EngramNYGTE1371414
Matt RyanATLQB1231263
Malcolm BrownMIARB1941973
Darnell MooneyCHIWR1271292
Baker MayfieldCLEQB1341362
Justin TuckerBALK1401422
Kirk CousinsMINQB1531552
Cole KmetCHITE1741762
Derek CarrLVQB1931952
Mark IngramHOURB1921931
Hunter HenryNETE1241240
Tua TagovailoaMIAQB1651650
Zach ErtzPHITE1751750
Harrison ButkerKCK138137-1
A.J. GreenARIWR185183-2
Younghoe KooATLK151148-3
Jamaal WilliamsDETRB115111-4
Mecole HardmanKCWR125121-4
Justin FieldsCHIQB145140-5
Jalen HurtsPHIQB10396-7
Jarvis LandryCLEWR10598-7
Gus EdwardsBALRB114107-7
Michael PittmanINDWR120112-8
Ryan FitzpatrickWASQB180171-9
Tony PollardDALRB129119-10
James ConnerARIRB10291-11
Kenyan DrakeLVRB113102-11
Greg ZuerleinDALK178167-11
J.D. McKissicWASRB157144-13
Ben RoethlisbergerPITQB172159-13
Matt PraterARIK198185-13
Devin SingletaryBUFRB11699-17
Tyler BassBUFK171154-17
Buffalo BillsBUFDEF164145-19
Jason SandersMIAK177158-19
Matthew StaffordLARQB10181-20
Nyheim HinesINDRB150130-20
Zack MossBUFRB10887-21
Joe BurrowCINQB122101-21
San Francisco 49ersSFDEF166143-23
Los Angeles RamsLARDEF136110-26
Giovani BernardTBRB196170-26
New England PatriotsNEDEF188161-27
Baltimore RavensBALDEF154125-29
Alexander MattisonMINRB156127-29
Pittsburgh SteelersPITDEF135105-30
Tevin ColemanNYJRB187157-30
David JohnsonHOURB131100-31
Tampa Bay BuccaneersTBDEF147116-31
Deshaun WatsonHOUQB170138-32
Indianapolis ColtsINDDEF179147-32
Washington Football TeamWASDEF149114-35
Michael ThomasNOWR10767-40
Latavius MurrayNORB168123-45
Rashaad PennySEARB199146-53

What stands out on this list? TEs. If you miss out on a top-tier TE, wait and grab one or two of these late-round values.

We also see James White on the list, ranked 28 spots higher than ADP. We already mentioned him in our Bet the Don’t article as a player we’re high on.

After James White, we see a lot of RBs at the bottom of the list. There just simply isn’t RB upside late in drafts. Let the masses grab RBs who have no chance of cracking their starting lineup or are only insurance policies, while you’re focusing on upside WRs or a second upside defense.

So there you go. Your cheat sheet will already incorporate this data into the delta column, but this gives us a general sense of a plan and confirms our strategy of RB early, high-end TE and QB, mid-round WRs, and, importantly, defense and kicker much earlier than you’re used to because you can see that you’ll have several highly-ranked upside players still available to you in the last few rounds of the draft. Don’t reach on these players at the cost of maximizing your starting lineup.

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