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11/13 NEST LOL

TL:DR

1 Unit on Suning +165 to win series

1 Unit on EDG +125 to win series

½ Unit on EDG/SN Parlay +496

1 Unit on EDG +250 to win 2-1

 

Recap Day 4

What an interesting day it was for me today. I decided yesterday that I would in fact wake up and watch the games this morning. So after my live stream and a couple of beers, I found myself going to bed near 11 pm eastern, knowing that in three short hours I’d have to wake up. During the Summer Split, I kept similar hours and know that I can handle it, even if I am out of practice. With my alarm set for multiple times between 2 and 3 to make sure I was up to make any last-minute roster changes I got to sleep. Fast forward what felt like a few minutes I’m making coffee watching the game that never would be. The crazy amount of pauses in that first game killed the vibe. It didn’t help that it looked like OMG was playing better than expected. So 10 minutes into the game, a pot of coffee drank, and what was 80 real-life minutes I decided I should just go back to sleep and wake up at 7. I woke up to see that WE had in fact 2-0’d OMG as suspected, that iG had a 1-0 series lead and I felt good. Watching the second game it looked like it was the good version of RNG on the rift as they played pretty well, especially for this tournament. They took game 2 and I thought to myself “No big deal, the 2-1 series odds were better anyway.” The only problem was that my best lineups, the ones with the best chance to actually return a big chunk of money were my RNG ones, so I was torn. Game three was pretty even, I think iG had a slight lead and then it happened. Captain made a terrible mistake with his W on LeBlanc and flashed back into the enemy team. It was a major mistake given the game state, the time of the game, and everything going on. We’ve all been there, but almost as it happened it you knew it would turn the tide. That is indeed what happened. RNG won the game, my stack didn’t hit, and my bets were lost. Great. To make matters worse I had to drive 45 minutes to an appointment that I didn’t properly pre-qualify. It was a waste of time. Today is a new day though!

 

Suning (+165) versus Rouge Warriors (-220)

From a Prior Article

“Suning- While these guys have little experience, many of them rookies, they are the minor league team for the Worlds Runners Up. This leads me to believe they get to scrim against them quite frequently and as such are made better as a result. Most were part of the LDL that finished 18-7 and 5th in the Summer Split. Their playoffs ended early with a 9-12 placing being swept in the first round to LGD.”

In their first series against BLG Suning was able to win the series yet found themselves not involved in the optimal lineup for DFS. I suspected the reason for the line was the amount of LPL versus LDL experience BLG had over Suning, but as we saw that didn’t matter. The one part of this lineup to note is that they didn’t bring any primary top lane players. This left a void that we thought might have been filled by fadduci, but instead was View running the top lane for Suning. His natural position is Jungle, so to expect larger numbers from him might have been a bit optimistic. Keep that in mind when putting together lineups.

Parts in italics are from The Day 3 article.

View- 116 Games Played / 50.9% WR / 3.7 KDA

7/12/18- In the first series playing Kennen twice which were both wins, and a forgettable 0/5/0 as Ornn

Didn’t play much in 2020, his champion pool reflects that. As most of them were jungle champions played in 2019 meta.

Maggie- 88 Games played / 52.8 WR / 3.64 KDA

15/5/18-As expected Maggie ended up on Graves quite a bit, all three games in fact. The middle game is going to be one that doesn’t add much for everyone on the team. Maggie went-1-4 that game. It’s worth noting that was the only game Meteor ended up on Nidalee instead of Lillia

Don’t let the overall WR fool you, his 2020 is 66.7% on 60 games. His champion pool is strong for the patch/meta Graves 8-4, Ekko 8-2,Nidalee 5-4, and did play two games as Lillia during the Summer LDL playoffs despite them as losses. It’s in his wheelhouse is what we know.

Forse- 70 Games Played / 64.3% WR / 4.33 KDA

11/12/17 – Two wins on Akali, one Loss on Zoe (2/4/1) in that game. Wuming was strong in his first match up and handled qingcheng. This isn’t a one on one so don’t take to much stock in that. But it will be interesting to see how this matchup plays out.

Strong win rates on Sett, Syndra, Zoe, and Leblanc he’s shown a range within his champion pool. Given how bad QuingCheng appears this may be a spot to target in the CPT Slot.

Assum-55 Games Played / 69.1% Win Rate / 3.54 KDA

18/11/21- Both wins were on Draven, the second game he ended up on MF and went 1/3/0. Curious to see what RW does with all its bans as the success SN found in this first series was on the exact same comp in both wins.

Another player that leans heavily towards Ezreal/Ashe I expect to see both of these champions prioritized by ADC’s on both sides It should be interesting if either team decides to ban as Assum and Wings both have pretty poor results w/ other ADC’s played recently such as Jhin/Senna.

Owo-82 Games Played / 57.3% Win Rate / 4.01 KDA

02/13/23- All three games were Leona. None really stand out as a reason to make Owo your support if you playing an SN stack.

Deep champion pool, with the strongest being Yuumi. I’m not sure we see much of her today. I expect Owo to end up on Rakan which is his second-best WR/KDA champion and plays well into the teams win conditions.

Rouge Warriors- The RW Team did bring two subs along with the starting 5 they played within the first round. Xiaozhao (Top) and Haro (Sub) both could be in the starting line up or used as subs. Make sure you monitor this prior to lock to not get stuck with a dead spot in your lineup. In terms of the team overall. We know RW was the source of a lot of great fantasy games. Either they’d rack up a lot of kills as an underdog, or just feed the other team. The LDL team didn’t fare much better finishing with a 9-16 record in summer good enough for 21st place.

BoWen- 79 Games Played / 38 % Win Rate / 2.14 KDA

10/13/12- One game on Scion which he hadn’t played the entire year and one game on Akali. During the regular season both spring and summer there were games that he played on Akali, but mostly found himself playing Ornn to the tune of a 6-15 record. The second most played champ was Volibear which he was 1-10 w/ a 1.04 KDA. Probably a spot to live bet if you see him end up on the bear during the draft.

Youdang-43 Games Played / 30% Win Rate / 2.3 KDA

43 games played over three years as a pro. He played 12 in spring and made it up to the LPL for summer where he played 5 games all losses with Rek’Sai, Trundle, and Lee Sin. Played Graves for 9/5/24 in the first series.

Wuming-165 Games Played / 55.2% Win Rate / 4.47 KDA

Wuming subbed in for Ruby midway through the Summer split. The impact looked to be massive as RW was able to take a 2-1 win versus DMO, a sweep of LGD, a sweep of FPX, and a sweep of eStar. They closed out the summer split getting swept by BLG,LNG, V5, and RNG. So while there were some great wins, there were some pretty bad losses to balance that out. Playing Zoe/Tailyah registered an 8/4/25 line in the first series.

Zwuji-229 Games Played / 41.5% Win Rate / 4.07 KDA

Aphelios/Ash/Ezreal most played champions in 2020 Zwuji was the MVP in both games against BLG. Playing Kai’Sa both times 24/2/17 w/ both games registering the 12 kills. The bottom lane as been key all tournament. I suspect the same in this match up.

Ley-448 Games Played / 51.3%/ / 3.19 KDA

3/5/38 – Two massive support games gave him a huge assist total. Playing Alistar and Thresh in those games Ley is the most experienced player in the tournament overall. A deep champion pool Thresh was his most picked champion in both Spring and Summer.

Final Thoughts- This game doesn’t mean much in the sense that both teams have qualified to move on by each beating BLG. They are however playing to see who wins the group. With what we know about games involving RW this might be one of the few times I go bit heavier on game stacks. I expect this game to be decided by the bottom lane as has been the case throughout this tournament. If Suning does fall behind there they have an additional win condition through a Jungle carry. There just on paper at least seems to be a rather large difference between Maggie and Youdang.

When it comes to wagers, I’m not one to bet RW as favorites.

Suning 1 Unit to win the series @ +165.

  

             Team EDG (+125) Versus eStar (-170)

Intro

Unlike the prior game which is only playing for seeding. These two teams are playing to advance. The winner of this game also has the chance with a sweep to take the first seed. Will we still see the fast and loose playstyle with sloppy game play, and choices that look like each player has a blood alcohol above the legal limit to operate a vehicle? Probably.

eStar

Xiaobai-216 Games Played / 49.1% Wine Rate/ 2.95 KDA

0/5/16 – Yeah a pretty substandard first series. Hard to look at anything he’s done over the summer and in this first series a feel good about rostering him.

Playing most of the summer split in place of CJJ Xiaobai didn’t have much more success as eStar struggled in summer. A 62% Spring Win Rate was reduced to 37% in Summer

CJJ-167 Games Played / 61.7% Win Rate / 2.96 KDA

DNP

Important to Note that CJJ started a few games in the LPL for eStar in the summer split. They lost every single one of them. He was able to put together a 66% Win Rate and a 3.5 KDA in the LDL however and that’s the type of top match up he would have if starting.

Wei- 134 Games Played / 53% Win Rate / 3.3 KDA

13/9/7 In game one against FPX Wei went 10/3/5 on Graves and looked like the best player on the rift. FPX was able to get Youxin on Graves the next two games it Wei countered by going with Kindred with pretty awful results. I’d say he’s probably the best player in this series and if he can get on some comfort pick I think he has the talent to take over this series.

Another tale of two splits. A 62% WR and 4.9 KDA in Spring was reduced to 32.5% and 2.74. The main difference is what we’ll talk about here in a second as Cryin was returned to RNG who had loaned him to eStar for the spring split.

FenFen-144 Games Played / 43.8 % Win Rate / 2.99 KDA

DNP

Let’s ignore some of those numbers as they date all the way back to 2016. Instead, let us look at the Summer Split 38 GP / 34.2 % WR / 3 KDA. When he joined eStar they declined. Is it all on him, certainly not but I’m not feeling him here if starting?

Irma- 151 Games Played / 57.6% Win Rate / 3.72 KDA

6/8/9 Two games on Syndra which was banned the third game so he found himself on Velkoz. I used to ask myself when playing ARAM why we didn’t see more professional mid-laners play Velkoz. After seeing several games where they did, I have my answer. Even in their win he wasn’t impressive. He doesn’t have an impossible match up here, but he’s going to need to play better.

A Strong Showing in the LDL summer w/ 69.8% WR / 4.42 KDA and a 62.7KP he got subbed in one series to replace FenFen. He didn’t fare much better going 4/5/6 over two games both in losses.

Rat-167 Games Played / 64.1% Win Rate / 4.78 KDA

4/11/13- As I keep looking back at these three games it looks more and more like game 1 was the exception. When they won that game, there was a glimmer of hope. Hope that they had returned to something that resembled the spring form. That quickly faded as they got routed in games 2 and 3. Rat’s winning game was on Ashe, and then lost on Jhin and Ez.

Rat spent most of the 2020 Summer Split in the LDL where he was dominant going 18-2 in games played. Working on champions like Ezreal/Ashe/Caitlyn/Jhin he should be able to navigate any ban situations that are thrown at him. His performance earned him some time in the LPL playing 9 games but going 2-7 w/ a 3.7KDA

Alu-210 Games Played / 62.4% Win Rate / 4.09 KDA

2-10-15- Yikes. There will always be questions going into these split-squad games. You have guys that haven’t played a ton or at all with each other. That lack of continuity is reflected in the game. Alu not only didn’t play with these guys but he wasn’t even part of the organization.

Alu spent the LDL Summer split on LGDY Playing 27 games going 16/11 in those games. They finished 4th in the playoffs after going 13-12 in the regular season for a 12th play finish. A Normal support champion pool that I don’t see any reason to prioritize in my stacks.

Team EDG

Xiaoxiang-43 Games Played / 55.8% Win Rate / 3.24 KDA

Coming in toward the end of the spring split to replace Aodi. EDG saw a bit more success as they started to return to spring form with him in the lineup. Losses against LGD/RNG/FPX but wins against VG,LNG,BLG,V5 and this eStar organization to end the split. 6/10/20 is a pretty average 1-2 line. The second game where he played Ornn into Darius and ended 4/0/12 was promising though.

JieJie-116 Games Played / 55.2% Win Rate / 4.64 KDA

11/11/25- Two games on Graves and one on Lillia. Jiejie was on/off the main roster this summer and spring. He played mostly Lee Sin/Volibear and when the team wins you can usually feel good that JieJie will have put up a very good fantasy line.

0909- 75 Games Played / 46% Win Rate / 2.89 KDA

9-13-22-The 7-1-10 game is promising. Played mainly on Qiyana/Jayce during the LDL Spring. In the first series, we saw him bring out the Jayce after two games as Galio, which was then banned by FPX in-game 3. That same Galio was played 6 times with a 1.97 KDA in Summer. That banger game seems like it’s more the outlier than an indication of what would come with another game on him.

BBD-223 Games Played / 45.3 Win Rate / 4.63 KDA

18/5/18 A solid 4/1/4 on Jhin, an MVP MF 7/0/9 Game, and 7/4/4 Kai’Sa game. Playing mostly in the LDL with a few appearances in the LPL when Wink was sick/injured I find BBD to be a must-have when stacking EDG.

Sloth-96 Games Played / 47% Win Rate / 2.5 KDA

4-18-29- BBD’s normal support. Makes sense in the stack if you’re playing him.

Final Thoughts

Just looking through the game stats and from what I remember watching the parts that I was able to catch. I’m not sure that the EDG team should be the underdog here. Again given the volatility of this tournament I’m happy taking the underdog and this is no exception.

 

75% Exposure EDG

50/50 RW/Suing

25% eStar

 

Favorite Plays –

Zwuji,Wuming,Ley-RW

SN-Assum,Maggie,View

EDG-BBD,Sloth,JieJie

eStar-Wei