11/11 NEST LOL
Skip to the end for a TL:DR
Day 2 Recap
One thing that we need to keep in mind moving forward is the unpredictable nature of the game itself. Beyond that when additional variables are introduced that further add to the volatility the cliche anything can happen comes into play.
For this tournament, we have so many things to consider
-Lame Duck Meta
We touched on the roster aspect yesterday, but in terms of the meta, this isn’t a patch that will be played beyond this tournament. We’ll see a slew of new changes to itemization coming into play tomorrow that will reshape the way the game is played next season. What that means is there really isn’t anything to learn from the patch their playing on, just winning this tournament. The prize pool isn’t anything paltry, but it isn’t huge. 60K US Dollars to first, 20k to second, 10k to third, and 5k to 4th. You can see that at least in the group stage we could see some teams playing fast and loose.
Yesterday we got started with Team WE versus LGD. The rosters on paper looked to favor WE. The majority of their LPL team was there and none of the team that made worlds for LGD was playing. Everything that I just talked about came into play as LGD took the first game and looked to be in command of the second. That’s when everything started to fall apart. As predicted yesterday the difference-maker was the best player on the rift as Jiumeng took over. Taking game 2 for Team WE and then game 3 for the series. The takeaway is it wasn’t that far away from an LGD sweep and had that happened 60% of lineups would have been in a bad spot as Jiumeng was the most heavily owned player on the slate.
Match 2 was VG versus RNG both teams with almost their entire LPL rosters, and boy were these games awful. Not from a viewership perspective, they were almost entertaining as there was action going back and forth. The quality of play wasn’t something you’d expect on the professional stage as both teams did everything they could to give back leads seemingly beg the other team to win. VG’s massive Game 1 lead was just too much for RNG to overcome, and believe me they almost did. Then Game 2 RNG played a bit better and rolled VG. From there both teams swapped out their mids and Forge and VG rolled RNG in the final game taking the series 2-1. This was the dog people needed to win GPP’s. The 10k winner was an amazing CPT+1+Team / 4 Man stack. The 3-4 stack works, but typically you’re not filling the third slot with a team. It’s surprising that it wasn’t duplicated in some ways, but it’s sub-optimal nature also lends to it being optimized and hand-built seldomly.
So far we only have the BLG lineup announced, the other three have no official word as of yet. If you want to play the slate make sure you get up and check Twitter to see if anything is announced. Some plays are safer than others as they don’t have a direct backup, I’ve listed the players I assume starting first on the charts below.
BLG (-220) Vs Suning (+160)
First, I think the line is what it is due to BLG having several of their LPL players in Meteor, Wings, and Xinmo. While they didn’t all play the entire summer split, each of them spent significant time in the big leagues. Whereas on the other side of things Suning has no one from their main roster, but only brought 1 player as a sub. This makes them an attractive play not only as of the “unknown” underdog but due to their lack of inherent sub risk.
BLG got smashed in the opening series of the tournament back on Monday in two fiesta’s against Rouge Warriors. Zuwji the RW ADC had massive games and was the MVP for both games. I bring this up because the only switch BLG made from that first game to the roster was subbing in Wings for Jinjiao and this could be the reason. Aside from the ADC they have an additional Mid on the roster as well. Although in their two games last series they ran the same lineup both times. The risk exists, it’s just not something I’m factoring in or actively avoiding.
Alielie- 98 Career Games w/ 54.1 WR(win rate). 2.49 KDA
Not an exciting player from what I can gather. A pro career that spans several years he’s never made it out of the LDL. In 2019 BLG Junior was able to take 2nd in the spring split playoffs but in 2020 placed 13th in spring and 22nd in summer.
Meteor- 228 Career Games w/ 54.5% WR / 3.88 KDA
Playing up with the LPL squad since Spring 2019 Meteor had a promising first year with the club as they finished 9th in Spring 2019, 2nd Nest 2019, and 4th in LPL Summer Playoffs w/ a 5-8 Demacia Cup. A huge falloff in 2020 as BLG disappointed and placed 10th/12th in the spring/summer splits. Mainly playing tank Jungle champions like Trundle/Sett/Volibear we did see him play 3 games as Nidalee in summer losing all three of those. It’s interesting as RW chose to ban her in both of the games they played. – Despite this Meteor is a strong play w/ any BLG Stack.
Qingcheng- 49 Career Games w/ 34.7% WR / 3.22 KDA
Not much to be excited about. The only positive win rate champion in his pool is Qiyana. I would be shocked if he played it. Went Syndra both times against RW and just doesn’t seem to fit the current game state.
Wings- 213 Career Games w/58.2% WR / 4.02 KDA
If I’m stacking BLG I’m putting Wings in. He isn’t a fantastic player but seems the most likely to carry if the team is going to win. He played Ashe and Ezreal a good amount during Summer and I expect him to find his way to those champions in this matchup as well.
Xinmo- 290 Carrer Games w/ 48.3 WR / 3.35
A fine support with a deep champion pool. Putting him alongside Wings makes sense from a correlation standpoint. His favorite champion during summer was Bard who isn’t likely to be band frequently and as such I’m including him in my BLG stacks.
Fine to fill out stacks
Suning- While these guys have little experience, many of them rookies, they are the minor league team for the Worlds Runners Up. This leads me to believe they get to scrim against them quite frequently and as such are made better as a result. Most were part of the LDL that finished 18-7 and 5th in the Summer Split. Their playoffs ended early with a 9-12 placing being swept in the first round to LGD.
Fadacai- No Professional Information- Officially listed as a bottom lane it appears he will be playing Top for the tournament?
Maggie- 88 Games played / 52.8 WR / 3.64 KDA
Don’t let the overall WR fool you, his 2020 is 66.7% on 60 games. His champion pool is strong for the patch/meta Graves 8-4, Ekko 8-2,Nidalee 5-4, and did play two games as Lillia during the Summer LDL playoffs despite them as loses. It’s in his wheelhouse is what we know.
View- 116 Games Played / 50.9% WR / 3.7 KDA
Didn’t play much in 2020, his champion pool reflects that. As most of them were jungle champions played in 2019 meta.
Forse- 70 Games Played / 64.3% WR / 4.33 KDA
Strong win rates on Sett,Syndra,Zoe, and Leblanc he’s shown a range within his champion pool. Given how bad QuingCheng appears this may be a spot to target in the CPT Slot.
Assum-55 Games Played / 69.1% Win Rate / 3.54 KDA
Another player that leans heavily towards Ezreal/Ashe I expect to see both of these champions prioritized by ADC’s on both sides It should be interesting if either team decides to ban as Assum and Wings both have pretty poor results w/ other ADC’s played recently such as Jhin/Senna.
Owo-82 Games Played / 57.3% Win Rate / 4.01 KDA
Deep champion pool, with the strongest being Yuumi. I’m not sure we see much of her today. I expect Owo to end up on Rakan which is his second-best WR/KDA champion and plays well into the teams win conditions.
Fine to Fill out Stacks
FPX (-250) Vs eStar (+180)
FPX a bit less of a breakdown in regards to this matchup and this team in general. We have some extremely established players on the roster here from the 2019 Worlds Championship team.
If the starting roster comes out and it has LWX/Donib/Tian/Crisp or any combination thereof they’re all viable. All have played on the main roster for the better part of multiple splits and fit into the game state well. Who are these other guys tho?
Xiao-228 Games Played / 61 % Win Rate / 2.94 KDA
Primarily plays Renekton, but did have 8 games as Darius over the summer. I’d love to see some Darius tomorrow…. Please! Solid top lane option with a pool of champions much deeper than the two mentioned. Multiple games on Ornn, Mord, Volibear, Jax, and Camille.
Youxin- 66 Games Played / 75.8% Win Rate / 4.28
Heavy Graves/Nidalee player with one split of experience under his belt. The FPX LDL team went 21-4 during summer finishing 2nd and placed 3rd in the playoffs. The win rate is going to be influenced as such.
Insulator- 122 Games played / 66.4% Win Rate / 4.52
Rumble, Leblanc, Zoe, and many others. Was the MVP of game 3 against EDG with a massive game on Leblanc. His first, two games weren’t bad or good, as he ended up playing Renekton mid in game 2 which they lost.
Everyone- They’re very playable. – I know I took the easy out on this one.
Xiaobai-216 Games Played / 49.1% Wine Rate/ 2.95
Playing most of the summer split in place of CJJ Xiaobai didn’t have much more success as eStar struggled in summer. A 62% Spring Win Rate was reduced to 37% in Summer
CJJ-167 Games Played / 61.7% Win Rate / 2.96 KDA
Important to Note that CJJ started a few games in the LPL for eStar in the summer split. They lost every single one of them. He was able to put together a 66% Win Rate and a 3.5 KDA in the LDL however and that’s the type of top match up he would have if starting.
Wei- 134 Games Played / 53% Win Rate / 3.3 KDA
Another tale of two splits. A 62% WR and 4.9 KDA in Spring was reduced to 32.5% and 2.74. The main difference is what we’ll talk about here in a second as Cryin was returned to RNG who had loaned him to eStar for the spring split.
FenFen-144 Games Played / 43.8 % Win Rate / 2.99 KDA
Let’s ignore some of those numbers as they date all the way back to 2016. Instead, let us look at the Summer Split 38 GP / 34.2 % WR / 3 KDA. When he joined eStar they declined. Is it all on him, certainly not but I’m not feeling him here if starting?
Irma- 151 Games Played / 57.6% Win Rate / 3.72 KDA
A Strong Showing in the LDL summer w/ 69.8% WR / 4.42 KDA and a 62.7KP he got subbed in one series to replace FenFen. He didn’t fare much better going 4/5/6 over two games both in losses.
Rat-167 Games Played / 64.1% Win Rate / 4.78 KDA
Rat spent most of the 2020 Summer Split in the LDL where he was dominant going 18-2 in games played. Working on champions like Ezreal/Ashe/Caitlyn/Jhin he should be able to navigate any ban situations that are thrown at him. His performance earned him some time in the LPL playing 9 games but going 2-7 w/ a 3.7KDA
Alu-210 Games Played / 62.4 % / 4.09 KDA
Alu spent the LDL Summer split on LGDY Playing 27 games going 16/11 in those games. They finished 4th in the playoffs after going 13-12 in the regular season for a 12th play finish. A Normal support champion pool that I don’t see any reason to prioritize in my stacks.
Suning 2-1 over BG
FPX 2-0 over eStar
If you’re just playing one line up I’d probably lean Suning/FPX stacks, but BLG/FPX are fine as well.
On two-game slates like this, it’s important to spread out ownership if you’re playing multiple lineups.
My ownership levels will likely look like the following.
Projected Ownership for the field