2025 Targets & Fades
Scoring format: PPR, 4 points per passing TD, 1 point per 25 yards passing
The secret to crushing your fantasy draft isn’t just picking good players — it’s picking them at the right price.
By comparing our Value Over Average Starter (VOA) projections against current Average Draft Position (ADP), we can see who’s undervalued (targets) and who’s overvalued (fades). This is one of the most valuable pieces of the matrix cheat sheet and is what, when paired with the draft pick overlays, allows you to “see your way through the draft“.
The Δ column shows the difference between our rankings and ADP.
- Positive Δ = undervalued. Draft these guys to get more value than your leaguemates.
- Negative Δ = overvalued. Fade these guys unless they fall well below ADP.
Quarterbacks
Best QB Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 175 | +33 |
| Justin Fields | 110 | +25 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 142 | +24 |
| Jordan Love | 127 | +13 |
| Brock Purdy | 104 | +15 |
Takeaway: Don’t panic if you miss on an elite QB. There are still plenty of value options in the mid-to-late rounds. In fact, we wrote up Trevor Lawrence in our Spy vs Spy article — he’s a great value pick with real upside this year.
We don’t recommend drafting two low-end QBs. But if you end up stuck with a lower-tier starter, it’s reasonable to grab another value option late and see who rises to the top.
Worst QB Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 37 | -11 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 57 | -9 |
| Josh Allen | 23 | -8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 24 | -4 |
| Jayden Daniels | 29 | -4 |
Takeaway: The big names are still great real-life and fantasy QBs — but you have to pay a premium to get them. This is why you routinely see people snagging starting QBs for just a dollar in auction leagues: while some managers overspend on the elites, it leaves value starters sitting there for minimum pricing. Unless the top names slide, it’s smarter to load up on RBs and WRs early and grab value at QB later.
Running Backs
Best RB Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 39 | +7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 22 | +2 |
| Kyren Williams | 27 | +2 |
| Derrick Henry | 12 | -2 |
Takeaway: RBs are priced fairly, with a small discount on some of the riskier names like Kamara and Taylor.
Worst RB Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 80 | -85 |
| Joe Mixon | 59 | -67 |
| Najee Harris | 107 | -63 |
| Travis Etienne | 91 | -42 |
| Breece Hall | 32 | -14 |
| Omarion Hampton (R) | 34 | -16 |
Takeaway: Get two top RBs early and avoid the overdrafted landmines later. Mixon and Robinson are the worst values on the board (see Mike Hubbard’s RB sleeper here!)
Wide Receivers
Best WR Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 114 | +37 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 138 | +34 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 86 | +28 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 71 | +19 |
| Davante Adams | 43 | +13 |
| Mike Evans | 44 | +10 |
Takeaway: Vets like Adams and Evans are still WR1/WR2 values at a discount. Pittman, Shaheed, and Meyers are the biggest mid-to-late round steals.
Worst WR Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 78 | -22 |
| Rashee Rice | 49 | -26 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 30 | -7 |
| Garrett Wilson | 35 | -5 |
Takeaway: Addison and Rice are being drafted well ahead of their true value.
Tight Ends
Best TE Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 226 | +91 |
| Dalton Schultz | 209 | +68 |
| Hunter Henry | 155 | +40 |
| David Njoku | 98 | +35 |
| Dallas Goedert | 134 | +33 |
| Jake Ferguson | 125 | +31 |
Takeaway: The late-round TE pool is loaded with value. Waller, Schultz, and Henry can be had for nearly nothing but carry top-10 TE upside. Similar to Kamar and Taylor, a player like Waller carries risk, but he’s the type of player that is a nice flier at the cost of a throw-away pick.
Worst TE Values
| Player | ADP | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 55 | -2 |
| Evan Engram | 89 | -1 |
Takeaway: TE pricing at the top is pretty fair, not a lot major overdrafts. You’ll see that, in general TEs are ranked higher than ADP on the matrix cheat sheet because of their comparison to baseline scoring, but focus here on the ones that are most undervalued compared to ADP to find the best discounts.
Draft Strategy Summary
- Quarterback: Skip the overpriced elites. There are excellent values later — and if you end up stuck with a lower-tier starter, you can grab a second QB at value and let one emerge.
- Running Back: Don’t chase rookies (at high prices); some risky situations can be nice targets like veterans like Kamara, Henry, and Taylor. Are you really doubting Henry again??
- Wide Receiver: The best values are in the middle rounds. Prioritize vets (Adams, Evans) and target Pittman, Shaheed, and Meyers for depth.
- Tight End: Wait. The late-round TE pool is stacked, and you can secure a TE with positive Δ long after others spend up.
👉 Bottom line: Drafting is about extracting value from every pick. By following the Δ, you’ll consistently end up with players who outperform their ADP — giving you the edge every week.
