The Chalkboard | DFS Ownership Pivot Plays

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Source of my ownership and simulations to find pivot suggestions: https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

Quarterbacks
Draftkings – There are 4 names leading ownership so far this week, Daniels way above them all around 20% with Geno, Richardson, and Tua coming in behind him all over 10%. Daniels projections are by far the biggest on the slate, but as many have pointed out he has looked hurt. I want to be on him a week before everyone else, but it seems the masses are on him against a poor DAL defense. I am moving to single plays of Ertz or Brian Robinson Jr to get a piece of WAS. Richardson can break a slate and Detroit can get involved in shootouts so I like that chalk. Pivots to Bo Nix or Baker with Evans back both seem nice ways to keep high ceilings in play and avoid the field. 

Fanduel – Drake Maye gets added to pivots I like as he is less than a grand more expensive than DeVito

Running Backs
DraftKings – Achane is going to be ridiculous level owned and I still think that is ok. There are enough ways to pivot this week to eat that. Hunt under-priced with the early threat of Pacheco returning is an AUTO-PLAY for me regardless of how ownership shakes out. CMC, Mixon, Conner all make sense and are fine but pivots to Aaron Jones or either DET back is an easy way to change it up. I am seeing chatter of Ameer Abdullah as a free square at $4300 and to be honest I am into it. Sims like the Denver and LV side of things and seem to favor an over in the game score. Jonathan Taylor is a bit pricey when I like cheaper options but is too talented to be projected at sub 3% ownership even against Detroit. Tyrone Tracy and either back in TB also are of interest with the value of the day for me on Hunt and Brian Robinson Jr.

Fanduel – If you are comfortable with the Devito and Abdullah plays with a cheap TE like Ertz you can fit Barkley in who may dominate as a late night hammer and run back with Puka.

Wide Receivers
Draftkings – Sutton, Meyers, and Jennings are leading ownership. I like the first two and off the third. St. Brown is up there as well but that is really good chalk in my book. I think we need to look at CeeDee Lamb, he is still a stud and has had a break out this year. If Dallas offense can click this game has big score all over it. Chalk seems good this week as I like JSN and Ridley as well. You can get Terry at a decent discount and I am always on Reed when one of the other guys is getting more attention (Doubs). Downs nearly unowned seems wrong and if Evans gets cleared I want him in my lineups.

Fanduel – When Kupp dips to around 1% you find a way to put him in.

Tight Ends
It’s chalk week! Kelce, Jonnu, Ertz are all my favorite plays and highest owned. Hockenson, Henry, and Kmet are decent pivots and a cheap flyer to Theo Johnson again pops in my models

Defenses
I’m mostly dropping to Green Bay against a poor sub that in like Allen.