The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Quarterbacks
Draftkings – Simulations are begging for stacks starting with Purdy or Lamar and I think that is all just fine. Individual QB plays are showing projections concentrated on Purdy. I don’t think it is smash chalk but I am having Deebo locked into lineups so that will naturally lead me to some Purdy plays and even at a projected 18%-20% ownership isn’t enough to make me get off of him. Allen destroys the Chiefs historically in the regular season and it’s an easy ownership fade from the top-end guys with Knox as a chalky lock to go with him. When you can get Lamar and Allen exposure less owned than Tua, Nix, Geno, Goff, and Winston, you need to take a serious look at paying up. Mahomes as perhaps the least-played QB of the week on the road in a game I think he loses and has to throw is interesting too. If I am being honest, as long as ownership is ignoring him there is a chance Russell Wilson drops 30 points this week.

Fanduel – Lamar naturally is higher owned on Fanduel but this largely stays the same as above.

Running Backs
DraftKings – The pay-up options are heavily owned but also seem to have pretty high leverage meaning some solid good chalk. CMC, Kamara, Achane all project well in great matchups. Bijan has been a stud and Denver is really good against the pass and with a deep ownership Discount from the top I will be clicking his name frequently this week. I’m feeling flop lag on Swift and firing him up after a disappointing performance last week. Jones, Jacobs, Kyren are all solid plays off of their counterparts near their pricing. I’m off Estime, I’m not buying into him getting significant carries over Williams.

Fanduel – Cook and Hunt get added to the pivots popping with the guys above.

Wide Receivers
Draftkings – We’ve got Jauan Jennings leading the way and as much as the model and myself like SF just one look at the history of Deebo vs SEA and you have to go that route. He’s averaging 120 yards and a TD a game in his last 7 against the Seahawks. I gotta play that trend. Jefferson has the ability to break slates and keeps being ignored, most likely for the price and that he just hasn’t done it that much this year. Eli Moore and Boutte are seeing too much chalk for my liking where you can take flyers in Calvin Austin, Troy Franklin, or pay up just a bit more and get Ray Ray in there who all have similar upsides and are being ignored by the field. I LOVE Pickens, Sutton, Puka, and Kupp this week as well as Zay FLowers as I am not touching the Diontae Johnson revenge narrative. 

Fanduel – Deebo is a bigger lock, fades for Jennings are even easier and Shakir gets bumped way too high for me. Solid argument for more Curtis Samuel here for his rushing upside and more work in the slot without Kincaid. Jaxon Smith Njigba is someone of interest as well.

Tight Ends
Nothing really stands out as too highly owned with Jonnu Smith in a good spot is the highest projected owned TE at only 9%. Play what your budget fits. I love the free square Knox and Smith at their price points.

Defenses
Just target bad QB’s there are lots of them…