The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

See the source of my simulations here –> https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

Quarterbacks
DraftKings – Ownership is congregating around Brock Purdy to the tune of pushing 30%. People want in on CMC’s return and I don’t blame them, they are in a good spot and a Purdy/CMC/Kittle stack will probably find its way into my lineups. Next are Sam Darnold and Justin Herbert both garnering just over 10%. Nothing less than 20% worries me usually and we like to play where the points are. I want to be on Hurts and any Eagle against the Boys, I want both sides of the MIN/JAX and am willing to go with a Jets double stack with Rodgers. It’s pretty easy to get production on pivots this week as outside of Purdy ownership looks low. Maybe this week we find our WRs first and see who fits in. 

Fanduel – Hurts is so pricey it’s harder to pivot up, Purdy still dominates ownership and a surprise spike in model goes to Baker Mayfield against the Niners at nearly unowned. 

Running Backs
DraftKings – Barkley is in another week of must-play at nearly only 5% owned and I will continue to play him until the field catches up. Kamara gets the highest ceiling rating I have seen on the year at 50 points which is crazy and even as the second highest owned behind Aaron Jones, both over 20%, but has the highest leverage meter due to his matchup and point projection. I am also in on good chalk for Jones! Looking for less owned option you can go to JK Dobbins, James Cook, and Tony Pollard for low-owned and high-scoring opportunities. Deandre Swift makes the list and dare I say Najee Harris? I am out on all the deeper value at RB this week.

Fanduel – Joe Mixon pops like crazy in the FD main slate and I am all over it as Detroit has let up over 135 yards rushing in 4 of their last 5 games. The Lions RBs are also of interest in a lower-owned game overall.

Wide Receivers
Draftkings – Lots of chalk this week and my models don’t like most of them when you can go get your points elsewhere and that’s what this article is all about! Chalk: Deebo, London, Hopkins, Wilson, McConkey, Sheppard, Adams, Downs… Now I said above I can play Rodgers and his guys but that is because all together the stack is not being overused but individual plays say we pivot. Pickens, Lamb, AJ Brown, Mooney, Smith, Thomas, and Terry all have just the same projections and are all under 7% owned. Addison, Quentin Johnson, and Jennings all give a nice discount as well. 

Fanduel – When you can get Lamb, Jefferson, and Terry as some of the least-owned targets of the week you don’t think further. Philly and Detroit guys are grossly under-owned.

Tight Ends
DraftKings – Nothing really bothersome in here or over 10% owned really so play what fits. My favorite plays are Kittle, Taysom, Henry, Goedert, Engram, and Ferguson.

Fanduel – Henry pops as top value on FD.

Defenses
DK – Hey… Caleb WIlliams is bad… Just pay $2500 for New England.

FD – I am in on the Lions. They project as the worst scoring defense of the week in FD scoring but that is not my gut feeling!