NFL DFS: TNF Showdown Week 1 – Fantasy Football Blueprint

Football is back and so is one of my favorite formats, the Dradtkings Showdown Captain Mode. For anyone who is new to the format, this is a single-game contest where you roster a Captain at 1.5x salary for 1.5x points. You also roster 5 flex spots at normal price. With such a small player pool, duplicate lineups are common and most prizes are chopped. Therefore we need to try and find leverage to minimize chops or to win outright. Let’s take a look at some historical data and see what we can find.

My Philosophy

Just a few notes I keep in mind when constructing lineups

Ownership does not matter for top players (QB1, RB1, WR1)
Don’t roster Kickers or Defense in the Captain slot
Kickers (Flex) typically outperform other positions at the same salary
Play Tournaments only. Embrace the volatility of the GPP!
Only play tournaments you can MAX enter. I play 20 max, 3 max and single entry.
Stick to 4-2 and 5-1 lineups

Give me some data!

Captain Slot Winning Position

31% Wide Reciever
27% Running Back
24% Quarter Back
9% Tight End
5% Defense
0.5% Kicker

Vegas Odds: 60% of winning lineups roster a Captain from the favored team

Correlations

85% of winning lineups with a CPT WR had the same team QB
50% of winning lineups with a CPT QB had 2 same team pass catchers
60% of winning lineups with a CPT QB had the opposing team QB in Flex

The more salary you use, the more the lineup will be duplicated. Using max salary duplicates lineups at over a 20% rate! I like to keep my salary between $48,000 and $48,500.

That is just the tip of the iceberg, but I feel this is a great place to start a successful Showdown season.

TNF DFS Showdown: Lions at Chiefs (-4.5)

Note: At the time of this writing Travis Kelce is a game-time decision with a hyper-extended knee. This breakdown is assuming he plays. If he is ruled out, join us in Discord as we discuss alternatives.

My Favorite Plays

Captain

QB, Patrick Mahomes – The MVP has a perfect passer rating and has thrown at least 3 TD’s in Week 1 matchups, with 0 interceptions. Mahomes is the safest play in the matchup.

RB, David Montgomery – The Lions want to run the ball and with Chris Jones, should be able to. A lot of people of recommending Jahyr Gibbs here, but I like the $2400 salary savings.

Flex

TE, Travis Kelce – Let’s face it, Kelce is really WR1 and is a must to stack with Mahomes as Captain.

WR, Sky Moore – After Kelce, it’s a crap shoot for who will catch a TD from Mahomes. I like Moore because his speed will cause issues for Detroit’s new secondary.

WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown – Like Kelce, the Sun god will get his receptions. With no true deep threats on the roster look for him to get 10+ targets

Bargains

WR, Josh Reynolds – Reynolds is by default the Lions WR2 and he has a great rapport with Jarod Goff, having played with him in both Detroit and LA. The Lions will take a few deep shots to him and a long TD could break the slate.

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