By Chris Emrick
It’s that time of the week again. The time where we get to chase losses or ride the hot streak in the MNF showdown. The matchup we have today isn’t all that interesting from a real football perspective, but it does have a few interesting angles we can take with the showdown
Seattle @ Philly (+6.5) O/U 49
We’ve talked about the philosophy shift that seemingly occurred in Seattle out of nowhere. When one of 2019’s most run-heavy times shifted to one of the most pass-heavy. It’s worked out fairly well so far. The emergence of DK Metcalf as a true #1 has helped make this transition a bit more seamless. Adding to this has been the lack of health at the Running Back position and the depths the team has had to go to fill that roster spot. Chris Carson ($8800) returns this week, after missing 4 games. So perhaps we see them run the ball more often? The is a quote floating around Twitter and I’m not sure who it came from. Whether it was Pete Carroll or Brian Schottenheimer it doesn’t matter, to summarize the quote essentially says that the time is better off playing more balanced football and in turn not throwing 40-50 times. Certainly, if they fall behind that might go by the wayside but do we think that’s going to happen against Philly? Is this a game where we see 30 carries split between Carson and Hyde?
It makes sense when building lineups today to take that comment into consideration. The Eagles for all their woes this year have been a decent defensive team. Part of that comes from playing the NFC East and playing additional games against the Bengals, 49ers, and Browns in a weather game. That all said they haven’t given up more than 33 points to fantasy wide receivers in 5 games and 6 out of 7. On the other side of that, they’ve given up 20+ points to Running Backs 5 times including 23 and 26 in their last two games. Going back to the 6 of 7, the one game where they had exceeded that was against Pittsburgh who in their last 7 games is the only team with a top-flight passing attack that resembles the Seahawks. By no means am I thinking anyone should fade the Seahawks passing attack entirely?
On the other side of the ball, there are reports coming out of Philly that Jalen Hurts ($7200) has been getting reps with the first team in practice. Whether they plan on installing a few plays/series for Hurts or if he’s going to be starting the game has yet to be said. Assuming that he isn’t playing and just getting some reps playing Carson Wentz ($10,400) in a game where they might be playing from behind is always an option. His fantasy production this year despite all the injuries has still been playable. The one thing that I believe can help make your lineup different when rostering Wentz is playing the Seahawks Defense ($3800) against him in the same lineup. Wentz has 14(!) Interceptions on the season, and he’s been sacked 40 times. The Seahawks have had issues stopping anyone but the addition of Carlos Dunlap has seemed to sure up the defense to a point only giving up 22 points on average over the last two weeks. That versus 29.5 over the earlier part of the season. Miles Sanders ($9200) hasn’t had a wonderful season. The offensive woes have hurt his production and he’s been hurt which has had its impact as well. The Seahawks defense has a reputation of being bad against the pass, and that’s true. They’ve been almost equally and recently worse against the run. Over the last 5 games, they’ve given up the following 41.4 to The Vikings, 26 to the 49ners, 19.20 to the Bills, 33.20 to the Rams, and 30.90 to the Cardinals. Sanders plays 70-75% of the snaps on average and most of the carries within the 5. All this is to say it’s a strong play.
I’m leaning towards 4-2 construction for the slate leaning towards Seahawks as I do expect them to cover.
A few thoughts
Seattle Side
Russ- Fade?
Locket > Metcalf
Hyde + Carson
Defense solid play
Will Dissly > Hollister
Philly Side
Wentz + Seahawks D
Miles Sanders in any 3/3 and still viable elsewhere
Goedert and Fulgham are the only WR’s I’m playing.
The more lineups you play, the larger the player pool becomes. For me, I’m looking at running 5 so I’m trying to keep it rather condensed.