The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Quarterbacks

If you are paying up, it’s Josh Allen. I think he is truly the only realistic 40-point play on the board in any position. He is the chalk and worth every penny. I can’t quit Jacoby Brissett; he’s been paying off value all year, and just got told the job is his for the year and will showcase for his next contract. Value isn’t hard to find as Shough and Tyrod are both viable at under $5k. If you think BUF/CIN can explode, then consider Burrow at a price I don’t love, but at a 2.5% projected ownership that screams to be played. I’m getting tipsy with Jordan Love. Mid-range projections, mid-range ownership, in a game that will go overlooked in a sneaky shootout to decide a division leader.

Top End Plays: Allen, Burrow, Stafford

Mid Range Targets: Brissett, Nix

Value: Tyrod, Shough

Tipsy Pick: Love

Running Backs

Cook, Achane, Hall, Jacobs, and Harvey, are all looking at over 15% ownership. I was wrong about Achane last week, he was excellent and ripped his 3rd straight game of over 100 yards rushing, but continues to be uninvolved catching the ball. If he gets back into the passing game he can break a slate. Because I love Allen so much, I won’t have much Cook, but he is a great play. All the top owned guys are good in my book and Harvey will be a nice salary saver. I’m getting Tipsy with Aaron Jones. The only way that the MIN offense is going to learn to get back on track is by feeding the run game to open up coverage for terrible QB play.

Top End Pivots: Taylor, Jeanty, Henry

Mid Range Targets: Jeanty, Brown

Value Targets: Harvey, Walker

Tipsy Pick: Aaron Jones

Wide Receivers

Michael Wilson leads ownership, optimal rating, and is 5th in ceiling projections. That’s good chalk if there ever was. Big names in Puka, JSN, and Chase are mixed evenly in high ownership with a bunch of value, which might lead to some serious duplications. Watson, AD Mitchel, and Burden will save you money, but very much add to chopping pots.

Top End Pivots: Adams, Jefferson, Egbuka

Mid Range Targets: Meyers, Sutton, Metcalf, Deebo, Shakir

Value Plays: Vele, Dike (Flop Lag?), 

Tipsy: DJ Moore (everyone is on Burden, go the other way)

Tight Ends

McBride… His price went up again. And his 22 points last week weren’t enough to pay off his pricetag, and I believe he will miss value for the 3rd straight week. However, he is not down to 6% owned and is a high-end pivot candidate. Pitts leads the way with Warren, Bowers, and Fannin being the highest chalk. All just fine, to be honest. But i like a few other plays too.

Top End Pivots: McBride (but I don’t love it and won’t play it)

Mid Range Targets: Ertz, Andrews, Strange

Values: Loveland, Barner

Tipsy: Likely