Week 14 Fantasy Football Recap

Sometimes, I genuinely feel as though the season just started. In reality, we have officially reached Week 15, aka the fantasy football playoffs. This is what it all comes down to, so it’s more important than ever to be on top of the latest trends across the league. With that in mind, here are my top 10 fantasy football takeaways from Week 14. 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 14

Tragedy In Indianapolis

Approaching the end of what was an incredible turnaround season for both him personally and the Colts as a whole, Daniel Jones tore his Achilles on Sunday. In his absence, the Colts turned to Riley Leonard, a sixth-round rookie (Anthony Richardson is already on IR with a freak eye injury). But Leonard reportedly suffered a knee strain of his own on Sunday.

Believe it or not, the most likely candidate to start Indianapolis’ Week 16 matchup with the Seahawks might be Phillip Rivers. Yes, that Phillip Rivers, who is 44 years old and hasn’t played since 2020.

Whether it’s the father of 10 or someone else, the Colts’ starting QB for the rest of the season isn’t going to be particularly inspiring. Losing Jones takes them from a very fantasy-friendly offense with multiple options to a crowded mess. Jonathan Taylor should see all the work he can handle and still be a viable RB1, even as his efficiency likely suffers. But Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., and Alec Pierce are all suddenly transformed from weekly fantasy starters to very risky options. 

Troy Franklin’s Fall From Grace

Speaking of fantasy studs turning into unreliable options, we have Troy Franklin. For a brief stretch in the middle of the season, the second-year wideout genuinely took over as the Broncos’ WR1. He was leading the team in every key usage metric and turning that juicy role into points. 

But good things don’t always last, and that’s especially true when Sean Payton is around. On Sunday, Franklin posted just a 40% route participation rate. That was his lowest number of the entire season, as well as his second straight week running fewer routes than Pat Bryant. 

Unfortunately, there really isn’t much more to say here. Franklin did still see four targets, but he managed only 11 yards on his three receptions. A 40% route rate is so low as to make him completely unviable for fantasy, even in deep leagues. With Payton at the helm, there’s always a chance things turn back around … but there’s probably not enough time left in the fantasy season for that to happen in a meaningful way, so the second-year wideout is droppable. 

The Falcons’ “WR1” Without Drake London

Kyle Pitts came into the league touted as a “unicorn,” a player with wide receiver skills in a tight end’s body. Fantasy managers everywhere hoped that he could be a difference-maker as the rare TE-eligible player leading his team in targets. Five (mostly disappointing) years later, that hope is finally being realized.

The Falcons’ actual WR1, Drake London, has been absent since Week 11 with a knee injury. In three games without him, Pitts has led Atlanta’s offense in route participation rate (84%), target share (26%), and air yards share (38%). Those numbers would rank second, first, and first at the TE position for the season. As long as London remains sidelined, Pitts is a must-start TE1 (even though he has averaged a just okay 9.1 half-PPR points in this span).

Chicago’s Offense Without Rome Odunze

The Falcons weren’t the only team without their WR1 for Week 14, as the Bears were missing second-year wideout Rome Odunze. Many fantasy managers were expecting a breakout game from rookie Luther Burden III in his absence, or at least a return to form from DJ Moore. 

Instead, we got the not-so-triumphant return of Olamide Zaccheaus, who posted a 72% route participation rate after being below 25% in each of the three previous weeks. Moore was in essentially the same role as always, while Burden barely set a new career-high with a 64% route participation rate. 

If we’re looking for silver linings, Burden did tie his career high with six targets. The rookie has now either tied or set a new career high in targets for four straight weeks, and he does consistently post intriguing numbers on a per-route basis. But it’s the fantasy playoffs. Setting career highs with a 64% route rate and six targets isn’t going to cut it. 

Odunze is likely to miss more time since he is reportedly considered week-to-week. But it’s hard to view any of the Bears’ other WRs as more than risky flex plays in his absence. (For what it’s worth, the same applies to TE Colston Loveland, who ran just one more route than Cole Kmet on Sunday). 

The Packers’ Crowded WR Room

The Bears aren’t the only team in the NFC North with more pass-catchers than they know what to do with. With Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden both back healthy, a whopping 10 Packers saw at least one target on Sunday, with no individual seeing more than four. 

Christian Watson obviously stands out as the clear top dog, catching all four of his targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns (22.9 half-PPR points). He also led the team with an 81% route participation rate. He might be more boom or bust now that everyone is healthy (this 16% target share was his lowest since Week 10), but he is still playable. 

Reed saw four targets of his own, but he was at just a 62% route participation rate. And we can’t expect that number to grow, as he has always been a part-time player (he ran 52% of the routes way back in Week 1 prior to his injury). He is a playmaker, but he is just a high-risk flex option given his part-time role (think Khalil Shakir). 

Things are even uglier for the rest of Green Bay’s weapons. Romeo Doubs seems to have returned to his role as a pure cardio player, with zero catches and just two targets on a 73% participation rate. Tight ends Josh Whyle (39%), John FitzPatrick (35%), and Luke Musgrave (35%) form a useless three-headed monster, and wideouts Matthew Goklden (19%) and Dontayvion Wicks (12%) are backups. 

Harold Fannin Jr.’s Breakout

My top takeaway of last week was Harold Fannin Jr.’s performance. Little did I know, we hadn’t seen anything yet. The rookie exploded on Sunday, catching eight of 10 targets for 114 yards and a TD. 

David Njoku exited early with an injury, but I’m not sure that really mattered given that Fannin was at a 90% route rate even with the veteran healthy in Week 13. He is a genuine weekly TE1 going forward, regardless of whether Njoku is available. 

Jaylen Wright’s Big Day

De’Von Achane suffered a rib injury early in the Dolphins’ win over the Jets, and he did not return. In his absence, Jaylen Wright took over as Miami’s RB1. The second-year RB racked up 107 yards and a TD on 24 attempts, also seeing three targets for a 14% share. Ollie Gordon II was also involved, but his role was minimal — five carries and four routes on half as many snaps as Wright.

Going forward, it’s unclear if Achane will miss any time. He was reportedly even available to return if necessary on Sunday. But, especially at this stage of the season, I recommend simply adding Wright anyway. If Achane misses time, he will be a must-start option as Mike McDaniel’s RB1. If Achane recovers, you still have a high-value handcuff … or you can just drop him again.

Blake Corum’s Role Expands

Some parts of the fantasy football community have spent both of the last two seasons calling for and/or predicting that Blake Corum would cut into Kyren Williams’ workload. Up until recently, they were consistently wrong, as Kyren remained the Rams’ clear RB1. But Williams was banged up last week, and Corum had a big game (81 yards and a TD on just seven carries) as a result. 

Apparently, that was enough to make Sean McVay and Co. actually change their RB usage. Even if we eliminate Ronnie Rivers’ eight carries (which came in garbage time), Kyren’s 52% RB rush share was his third-lowest of the season. Corum was involved from the first drive of the game, and he finished with just one fewer carry than Williams. Thanks to two TDs (one of which was a 48-yarder), he finished with 25.6 half-PPR points.

On the other hand, Williams still easily led his younger teammate in snaps (35 to 21) and routes (14 to seven). Corum is trending up, but this is not a true 50/50 committee. Don’t panic if you have Kyren and, while he is a priority add, Corum is still not a particularly enticing option for starting lineups. 

Dan Campbell Has Unleashed Jahmyr Gibbs

Dan Campbell first took over playcalling for the Lions’ offense in Week 10. In that game, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery posted identical backfield rush shares of 48%. That was nothing out of the ordinary, as they had averaged rush shares of 54% (Gibbs) and 43% (Montgomery) coming into the week.

But since that week, there has been a clear shift. Gibbs has seen rush shares of 67%, 75%, 71%, and 67%. Correspondingly, Montgomery has averaged just a 30% rush share. Gibbs has also averaged an excellent 22% target share over these last four weeks, up from 13% in the rest of the season (this may also be related to Sam LaPorta’s absence over that time).

As long as this usage continues, Gibbs will be a genuine RB1 overall candidate every week. On the other side of the coin, Montgomery is quickly trending toward fantasy irrelevance. A 35-yard TD run helped him to a 13.8-point finish in Week 14, but he is still averaging just 8.8 points over the last month. 

Michael Wilson Madness Returns

I put this takeaway at the end because I genuinely don’t know what to make of Michael Wilson. With Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined again for Week 14 (this time with a heel injury), the third-year WR exploded (again) for 11 catches, 142 yards, and two TDs on 16 targets. Overall, Wilson has averaged an incomprehensible 24.8 half-PPR points on 16.3 targets per game across the three weeks Harrison has been absent over the last month. 

But when Harrison is present, Wilson averages just 4.5 points per game on 4.4 targets. That includes a dud in Week 13 — three catches for 36 scoreless yards on seven targets — which came after his first two breakout performances. Even theoretically role-neutral metrics like PFF Grade paint a clear picture of Wilson as a different player when the Cardinals’ usual WR1 is absent.

Going forward, the easy question to answer is what to do if MHJ remains sidelined— just start Wilson and hope he keeps it up. But I imagine many managers will be tempted to trust Wilson even if last year’s fourth overall pick returns … and I can’t blame them. Wilson did still see seven targets (more than his usual average) in Week 14, and the Cardinals can’t simply ignore the absurd numbers he’s putting up … right?