Week 11 Fantasy Football Game Previews
Can you believe it is already Week 11? I sure can’t. With Week 11 comes our first bye-light week in a long time, as only the Saints and Colts are taking this week off. That means that standards are higher for players to make fantasy lineups, and it also means this article will be even longer than usual. With that in mind, let’s get right into it.
Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins (Madrid Game)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET | Projected Totals: Commanders 22.50, Dolphins 25.00
This is one of the better super-early games we have gotten this season … which is saying something, seeing as it’s Marcus Mariota vs.Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins pulled off a shocking upset over the Bills last week, continuing their season of seemingly inexplicable ups and downs. Meanwhile, it’s been mostly downs for the Commanders, who have struggled with injuries and completely failed to follow up on last year’s surprise success. Both of these defenses are bad, so this one has a sneakily high total, but the options on Miami’s side are mostly more appealing than their Washington counterparts.
Quarterbacks
To be fair to Marcus Mariota, I wouldn’t say Washington’s problems are really his fault. He actually ranks third among all qualified QBs in PFF Passing Grade, as well as a respectable 20th in EPA per play (one spot ahead of Jayden Daniels). Thanks to his surprising mobility for a 32-year-old, he has also been decent for fantasy, averaging 17.4 points in his four games above a 50% snap share. He’s a high-end QB2, if not a backend QB1, given this good environment. Tua Tagovailoa, on the other hand, has not been particularly impressive. He’s had good games, but they have been overshadowed in both real life and fantasy by a few absolute stinkers. Even in a juicy matchup, he’s just a mid-range QB2.
Running Backs
The Commanders’ backfield is officially a mess. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the top option, but Jeremy McNichols has a passing down role, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. is back to mix in as a rusher (weirdly, Rodriguez also led the trio in routes last week). This is unfortunate, as otherwise this would be an exciting spot on paper against a Dolphins defense that is a top 10 matchup for running backs. Given the split nature of this backfield, Croskey-Merritt is just a mediocre RB3, while his teammates are desperation options. Thankfully, things are simpler in Miami’s backfield. Jaylen Wright surprisingly saw more work than Ollie Gordon last week, but neither is really relevant. It’s all about De’Von Achane, who is a truly elite RB1 thanks to his usage and explosiveness both on the ground and through the air.
Wide Receivers
With Terry McLaurin still sidelined, Deebo Samuel is the one trustworthy member of the Commanders’ WR room. He has slowed down dramatically after a very hot start, but he is still a borderline WR2 in this good matchup. After him, there’s not much to like. Former Titans first-rounder Treylon Burks was second among Washington receivers in routes last week, but he is now out with a finger injury. Some combination of Robbie Chosen, Jaylin Lane, and Chris Moore will be out there for Washington, but none of them are more than dart-throw options. Once again, things are simpler for Miami. Jaylen Waddle is a legit WR1. Behind him, Malik Washington is a deep flex play, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a dart throw.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz hasn’t been quite as productive as he was last season, but he has still maintained a solid role in Washington’s offense. Miami has given up the third-most points to opposing TEs this season, making him a high-end TE2 or even streamable TE1 for this week. For Miami, Greg Dulcich’s role just keeps growing: He went from a 25% route participation rate in Week 8, to 44% in Week 9, to 76% last week. He’s a genuine TE2 option this week.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Panthers 19.00, Falcons 22.50
Honestly, this game is just depressing. Neither of these teams is truly terrible, but neither is good, either. They are also both rolling out quarterbacks who, while still young, are tracking to be out of the league sooner rather than later. It’s not surprising this one has the third-lowest total on the slate.
Quarterbacks
As mentioned, both Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr. have been flat-out bad this season. No matter what measure of QB performance you pick, you will probably find both their names in the bottom 10 (if not bottom five) among high-volume passers. A lack of other options means they are both playable in 2-QB leagues, but only barely. Young is particularly unappealing given that Atlanta’s defense has been tough on quarterbacks this season.
Running Backs
For the first time this season, Rico Dowdle started a game and didn’t record over 27 half-PPR points last week. But his usage was still excellent, and it should remain so this week. He is a genuine RB1. Chuba Hubbard has been used only to give Dowdle a breather in the last two weeks, pushing him essentially off the fantasy radar. As Atlanta’s goal-line back, Tyler Allgeier is on that fantasy radar in a game where they are favored. But he is still more of a risky flex than anything else, as his usage is heavily gamescript dependent. We also don’t want to overstate how much his involvement affects Bijan Robinson, who is still an elite RB1 even if his goal-line TD equity isn’t as high as managers might hope.
Wide Receivers
Tetairoa McMillan has seen absolutely elite usage of late, with at least a 30% target share in each of his last three outings. But Carolina’s passing offense is both low-volume and inefficient, and the Falcons’ defense is a bad matchup. He’s just a high-end WR3. After him, Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette are risky deep flex options. For Atlanta, Drake London is a legit WR1. We also finally got a potential explanation for why Darnell Mooney has failed to produce this season: The veteran apparently broke his collarbone in training camp. Unfortunately, this explanation doesn’t really provide hope that Mooney will improve going forward — he’s a mediocre flex play.
Tight Ends
Tommy Tremble actually ran more routes than Ja’Tavion Sanders last week. Especially considering that the Falcons have shut down opposing TEs this season, neither is in play. Kyle Pitts is a solid backend TE1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Buccaneers 20.50, Bills 26.00
These two teams are both 6-3, but the Buccaneers are leading a talent-starved NFC South while the Bills are rapidly falling behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Tampa Bay got some good news this week as both Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving returned to practice, but they have both already been ruled out for this one. Despite generally being considered an elite or at least above-average offensive team, the Buccs actually have the sixth-lowest projected total of the week. If they can overperform expectations, this could be a shootout..
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield was a hot name in early-season MVP conversations, but his play has tailed off in recent weeks without some of his top weapons. He’s still a borderline QB1, but nothing more. Josh Allen, on the other hand, is his usual top-tier fantasy self.
Running Backs
Sean Tucker has seen more usage on the ground in the last two weeks, with 41% and 47% backfield rush shares. But Rachaad White is dominating receiving work and is still the Buccaneers’ lead back as long as Irving remains sidelined. Thankfully for both of them, the Bills’ defense has been susceptible to opposing backs this season. White is a backend RB2, while Tucker is a flex play. James Cook has been a bit inconsistent recently after a red-hot start, but his combination of explosiveness and usage on an elite offense still makes him an easy RB1.
Wide Receivers
Although his production has cooled down from the first few weeks, Emeka Egbuka is actually seeing better usage recently, including back-to-back weeks above a 30% target share. He is a legit WR1. Meanwhile, Tez Johnson has taken his fellow rookie’s place as the Tampa Bay WR running unsustainably hot on touchdowns. He is still a viable flex play, even if some floor games are inevitable. Sterling Shepard is also a flex option, but for much deeper leagues. Khalil Shakir is expected to play for Buffalo despite dealing with a couple of injuries; he is a high-end WR3. Keon Coleman showed some life for the first time since Week 1 last week, but he is still just a boom/bust flex.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton saw a massive 28% target share last week, his third time in the last four above at least 20%. He is a solid TE1 at this point. Dalton Kincaid is out with a hamstring injury, which means Dawson Knox will be the Bills’ primary tight end. In some respects, Knox’s role will likely be better than Kincaid’s was — he saw a 74% route participation rate when Kincaid was out for Week 6, while Kincaid himself has not been at even 60% all season. With that in mind, Knox is a TE2 with upside for more.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Chargers 23.25, Jaguars 20.25
The Jaguars being at home is doing some lifting here, but I still would have expected this spread to be larger than three points. If we filter out turnovers, the Chargers are well ahead in both offensive EPA per play (13th vs. 24th) and defensive EPA per play (fifth vs. 25th). Missing Joe Alt does hurt, but the Jaguars will likely be without Brian Thomas Jr. and definitely be without Travis Hunter. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one ends up more lopsided than it looks on paper.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert is running more than ever and cooking through the air. The Jaguars allow the second-most points per game to opposing QBs. He’s a top-half QB1. Trevor Lawrence, on the other hand, is running about the same amount as he always has and decidedly not cooking. Completing the comparison, the Chargers’ defense is the fourth-toughest matchup for quarterbacks. T-Law is a borderline QB2.
Running Backs
Kimani Vidal was an absolute bell-cow for the Chargers last week, racking up 25 attempts on a 94% snap share. That kind of workload easily lands him in the solid RB2 range, at least. Speaking of solid workloads, Travis Etienne continues to operate as the Jaguars’ clear lead back. He’s also a solid RB2, while rookie Bhayshul Tuten is just barely on the flex radar.
Wide Receivers
After a strange start to the season, the Chargers’ receiver room seems to have worked all the way back around to preseason expectations. Ladd McConkey is racking up targets as a high-end WR2. Keenan Allen also racks up targets when he is on the field, but part-time usage (54% route share over the last three weeks) makes him just a WR3/flex play. Quentin Johnston is slightly higher in that WR3 range, but with more of a boom/bust profile than his veteran counterpart. For the Jaguars, the big question (assuming Brian Thomas Jr. is indeed absent) is how much Jakobi Meyers’ role will expand in his second game with the team. He will likely be a full-time player, but will he surpass Parker Washington as the team’s top target? They are both risky flex options unless we get more clarification prior to kickoff on how usage will shake out.
Tight Ends
Oronde Gadsden is reportedly good to go after suffering a knee injury last week — when healthy, the rookie is still a TE1 until proven otherwise at this point. Brenton Strange seems to be approaching a return, but he won’t be back this week. That leaves Johnny Mundt as the Jaguars’ TE1, but he is not truly on the fantasy radar.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bears 22.75, Vikings 25.25
This is an interesting one. Statistically, the Vikings are offensively challenged and defensively competent, while the Bears are the reverse. Given that this game has the fifth-highest total of the slate, clearly the expectation is that the offenses will win out. But there’s also a chance that J.J. McCarthy continues to struggle and Caleb Williams fails to adjust against Brian Flores’ defense, so there is some variance in this game environment.
Quarterbacks
Given that we’re believing in both offenses moving the ball, this is a decent spot for Caleb Williams. Coming off back-to-back big games, he is currently the QB8 in points per game for the season. I do think he has a sneaky low floor if Flores’ pressure gets to him, but he projects as a backend QB1 nonetheless. Thanks to adding some value with his legs, J.J. McCarthy has also managed decent fantasy results despite real-life struggles. With a good matchup on his side, he is a high-end QB2.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift returned from injury last week, and he immediately reclaimed his previous role as the Bears’ RB1 over Kyle Monangai. The veteran is an RB2, while the rookie is back to being just a risky flex option. It’s similar in the Vikings’ backfield, where Aaron Jones has been the clear primary back over Jordan Mason since the former’s return from injury. Jones is an RB2, and Mason is barely hanging onto flex relevance.
Wide Receivers
Rome Odunze’s second-year breakout into true superstardom seems to have been short-lived, as he has dropped duds in three of his last five outings. However, he is still Chicago’s clear WR1 and a solid fantasy WR2. That leaves DJ Moore — who suffered a shoulder injury last week but seems on track to play this week — as the team’s second option and a fantasy WR3/flex option. And, as much as fantasy managers wished otherwise, Olamide Zaccheaus is still playing ahead of Luther Burden III in the slot. Neither is more than a dart-throw flex option. Justin Jefferson is still a stud and a must-start. But if he doesn’t provide a big outing in this good matchup, it’s time to think about moving him out of the top tiers of fantasy receivers — McCarthy has been a downgrade for Minnesota’s passing offense thus far. Jordan Addison is not immune to this downgrade, but his usage and big-play ability keep him viable as a high-upside WR3. Like his third receiver compatriots on the other side, Jalen Nailor is a dart-throw flex.
Tight Ends
With Cole Kmet back healthy, Colston Loveland posted just a 51% route participation rate last week. He did catch all four of his targets for a respectable outing, but the rookie simply needs to play more to be anything other than a risky TE2. Kmet is not on the fantasy radar himself. T.J. Hockenson was already struggling to maintain fantasy relevance, and he is also hurt by McCarthy’s struggles. With that said, at least he’s out there running routes — he’s a better TE2 option than Loveland.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Packers 24.75, Giants 17.75
We’ve mostly had matchups with relatively even projections up until this point, but that changes now. First up in the “likely blowouts” section, we have the Packers facing the Jaxson Dart-less Giants. Green Bay does tend to play down to their competition, and New York could get a classic post-coach-firing bump … but this one still isn’t likely to be close.
Quarterbacks
On the one hand, this is a good matchup and Jordan Love somehow still ranks second in the league in EPA per play. On the other hand, we know the Packers will run the ball when given the opportunity, and Love has scored 10 or fewer fantasy points in his two most recent games. He’s a high-end QB2 or borderline QB1, but a risky one. Jameis Winston’s reputation as a gunslinger will likely garner some excitement, but this is a bad matchup and he has very little in the way of weapons. He’s another one of those “in the QB2 conversation by default” options.
Running Backs
After a couple of weeks of ceding work to Emanuel Wilson, Josh Jacobs was back to legit bell-cow status last week. He is an elite RB1 in this cushy matchup. Meanwhile, Tyrone Tracy Jr. did lead the Giants’ backfield last week, but Devin Singletary was still involved. The Packers’ defense is also the fifth-toughest matchup for opposing backs. Especially with Jameis under center, there likely won’t be many opportunities to go around for this duo. Tracy is a high-end RB3, while Singletary is a mediocre flex option.
Wide Receivers
Green Bay’s wide receivers keep dropping like flies. Romeo Doubs, the one previously reliable member of the group, suffered a chest injury last week and exited early. However, he is reportedly good to go this week; the Giants’ secondary is very beatable, so he is a borderline WR2. After Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are good to go, while Matthew Golden is questionable. If Golden is out, Watson has some appeal as a boom/bust WR3 and Wicks is a flex option. If the rookie is in, all three become risky flex plays given the uncertainty of how they will split work. The Giants are dealing with WR injuries of their own. Wan’Dale Robinson is still available and should see all the targets he can handle to be a backend WR2. But with Darius Slayton ruled out (and Malik Nabers long gone), the team’s WR2 will be … RayRay McCloud or Gunnar Olszewski? Yikes. Names like Jalin Hyatt and Beaux Collins could also be involved, but you’d have to be desperate to play any of them.
Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave stepped more or less into Tucker Kraft’s shoes last week in terms of routes, with a 76% route share. However, he saw just three targets for an 8% share. Combine that with the fact that he doesn’t provide the same explosive YAC ability as Kraft, and he’s just a mid-range TE2. Theo Johnson has already been seeing solid usage for New York, and he could see even more looks with Slayton out. He is a borderline TE1.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bengals 22.00, Steelers 27.50
The last time these two teams met, they combined for 64 points. The total for this one is “only” 49.5, but that’s still the second-highest of the week. With two terrible defenses, this should be a fun one.
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco has averaged an absurd 25.4 points as the Bengals’ starting QB, and the Steelers lead the league by a wide margin in passing yards per game allowed. This makes me tempted to crown the 40-year-old as a true QB1 this week, but it is hard to consistently provide elite QB numbers with zero rushing value. Flacco projects as more of a high-end QB2. Switching to the old man on the other side, Aaron Rodgers has been a mediocre fantasy option, averaging just 15.9 points per game. But he did put up 24.6 points against this terrible Bengals defense in Week 7, and Pittsburgh has the second-highest total of any team this week — he’s a borderline QB1.
Running Backs
Samaje Perine has been ruled out for this one. In his absence in Week 9, Chase Brown handled 62 of 65 snaps, 11 of 12 carries, and an absurd 14 (!!!) targets. That’s the truly dominant workload that allowed him to finish 2025 as a true RB1. This Bengals offense isn’t quite that good, but he’s still a high-end RB2. Jaylen Warren also lands in that backend RB1/high-end RB2 range. He has ceded some receiving work to Kenneth Gainwell but should still handle the majority of carries against Cincinnati’s atrocious run defense. In fact, the Bengals’ defense is so weak to RBs that Gainwell also has some fringe flex appeal.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase has averaged over 15 targets per game with Flacco under center. Any WR seeing that usage would be a WR1; Chase’s explosive ability makes him arguably the WR1. Tee Higgins’ workload hasn’t been quite as absurd, but he has also seen his production surge upward since Flacco’s arrival. He is a high-upside WR2. Andrei Iosivas also has deep boom/bust flex appeal with the amount of production Flacco has been spreading around. DK Metcalf is coming off two straight duds, but his usage and this matchup are both great. He is a WR2, at least. Calvin Austin is also in play as a high-upside flex option, as he has seen at least a 79% route participation rate in two of the last three games.
Tight Ends
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Noah Fant’s production has increased with Flacco playing for the Bengals. However, he is still just a part-time player, never breaking a 50% route participation rate when Tanner Hudson is active. This keeps him essentially off the fantasy radar. The Steelers are also using a TE by committee approach, but they compensate somewhat by ranking second in the league in target share for the position. The Bengals are also by far the most generous opponent in terms of points allowed to TEs. With this in mind, Jonnu Smith (who led the group in routes last week) and Pat Freiermuth (who has led on average for the season) are both backend TE2s, with the edge for Jonnu. Darnell Washington is involved enough to be annoying for Smith/Freiermuth, but not enough to be relevant himself.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Texans 21.75 Titans 15.75
Yuck. This game has the lowest total of the week, and it’s not even all that close. The Texans’ offense wasn’t good when they had C.J. Stroud (who is missing another week with a concussion), while the Titans’ offense is by far the league’s worst. There’s very little to get excited about here.
Quarterbacks
Davis Mills finished Week 10 as the top-scoring fantasy QB and led the Texans to an insane comeback win. But I don’t expect the heroics to continue (or be necessary) this week. He is a backend QB2. That’s more than can be said for Cam Ward, who has played badly enough that it might already be time to worry about the first-overall pick’s long-term future.
Running Backs
Last week, Woody Marks dominated the Texans’ backfield at a previously unforeseen level. However, Houston’s OC said during the week that the change was unintentional. If we take his words at face value, this likely positive game script is a perfect opportunity for Houston to balance things out by feeding Nick Chubb. However, it’s likely the rookie has earned at least a lead role. He is a borderline RB2, while Chubb is more of an RB3. The Titans’ backfield, however, remains a fairly even split of a very small pie between Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. They are both unappealing RB3 options.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins posted a season-high 31% target share with Mills under center last week. That’s not enough to really change him from his usual spot as a fringe WR1, but it’s still encouraging. Behind him, things are a mess. Xavier Hutchinson (51%), Jayden Higgins (49%), Christian Kirk (45%), and Jaylin Noel (33%) all saw mediocre-but-not-negligible route participation last week. Given that Houston likely won’t have to pass much in this one, I recommend avoiding them all if possible, but Higgins is likely the best pick as a deep flex. Calvin Ridley might return from his hamstring injury this week. If he does, he’ll probably be the team’s top target, making him a flex option … but a risky one. If he’s out, the player to consider is Chimere Dike, who had beat out Van Jefferson and fellow rookie Elic Ayomanor to be the team’s top wideout in Ridley’s absence. However, there’s really very little to like about this group as a whole — their offense is terrible, and so is this matchup.
Tight Ends
Over the last two weeks, with his old college teammate Mills throwing passes, Dalton Schultz has recorded target shares of 20% and 24%. We don’t want to read too much into this small sample, but he’s a high-end TE2. Gunnar Helm is cutting enough into Chigoziem Okonkwo’s usage that neither is a playable option.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: 49ers 25.75, Cardinals 22.75
The 49ers finally got some good news on the injury front this week, as both Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are set to play for the first time since Week 4. On the other side, the Cardinals are likely feeling less-than-lucky. Jacoby Brissett had his worst game of the season last week after being officially named the team’s starter, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is set to miss this game after undergoing an appendectomy during the week. Despite all this, we have a relatively close spread and two mediocre-to-bad defenses, so this game has some sneaky shootout potential.
Quarterbacks
I was in on Brock Purdy as a potential backend QB1 coming into the season, and he averaged a solid 19.2 points in his two games. With that said, the Cardinals’ defense has actually held opposing QBs in check this season. He’s just a fringe QB1 or high-end QB2. Jacoby Brissett fell apart early against an elite Seattle defense last week, but he managed to salvage a decent fantasy outing in garbage time. He has averaged 21.4 points in his four starts this season, and the 49ers are a positive matchup for quarterbacks. Losing MHJ hurts, but he’s still a solid or even upper-half QB2.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey is Christian McCaffrey. Brian Robinson Jr. is trending in the right direction to have an Allgeier-esque fantasy-relevant role as a thumper and goal-line back, but he’s not there yet. For the Cardinals, we are likely in for another week of musical chairs between Emari Demercado and Bam Knight (although the latter is questionable with an ankle injury). They are both RB3/flex options.
Wide Receivers
It’s tough to know how to treat Ricky Pearsall in his first game back. He led the 49ers in targets in three of his four healthy games this season, but we also have a large sample of games from his rookie year in which he was an afterthought in San Francisco’s offense. How we project Pearsall’s role of course also impacts what we should expect from Jauan Jennings, who has seen excellent usage as the team’s WR1 over the last few weeks. I would bet that Jennings remains the top option, at least for a week or two, but that’s by no means guaranteed. He is a WR3, while Pearsall is a high-upside flex. With MHJ sidelined (and Zay Jones done for the season), Michael Wilson should be the Cardinals’ WR1. He is a solid streaming flex or even WR3 option. After Wilson, the obvious next man up for Arizona is Greg Dortch, but they may not trust the short king to serve as an every-down outside WR. Still, he’s a flex option, and I’m not throwing darts at any other Arizona WR (Xavier Weaver???).
Tight Ends
We got our first true George Kittle explosion game last week, re-establishing the veteran as a top fantasy tight end. However, he still has nothing on Trey McBride, whose already elite usage should get even better with Harrison out.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Seahawks 22.75, Rams 25.75
We’ve got another interesting battle of NFC West teams here, as the Seahawks and Rams are arguably two of the best teams in the entire league. The only unit on either side to rank outside of the top five in EPA per play is the Seahawks’ offense, which still ranks 10th overall and first in dropback EPA. Great offense tends to beat great defense, so we could see fireworks … on the other hand, divisional games can tend to be ugly, so who knows.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold has been absolutely cooking all season, ranking near the top of the league in any efficiency metric. However, he ranks 33rd in attempts per game and doesn’t add much with his legs, resulting in a very mediocre 16.5 points per game. Will he be forced to air it out to keep up with the Rams’ excellent offense, or will his efficiency falter against their top-tier defense? Those two possibilities kind of cancel each other out, so I’m leaving him as the mid-range QB2 he has been all season. Matthew Stafford has also been incredibly efficient, but he’s actually been turning it into fantasy points (21.1 per game). Even against Seattle’s defense, he is a backend QB1.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have been in arguably the league’s most even committee all season. Given the tough matchup, it’s hard to see either racking up many points this week. They are both high-end RB3 options. On the other side, Kyren Williams has ceded more work to Blake Corum in recent weeks, but this is still his backfield. He’s a high-end RB2, while Corum is just a dart throw.
Wide Receivers
According to PFF, Jaxson Smith-Njigba is averaging 4.61 yards per route run this season — only one other receiver is above even 2.56. It’s hard to draw much from the fact that Cooper Kupp and newcomer Rashid Shaheed ran the same number of routes last week, as that number was eight in a game Seattle basically won before it even got started. I expect Shaheed to eventually be this team’s WR2, but that might not happen right away. He and Kupp are both flex options, although the speedster has more tempting upside. Remember when I said only one other WR was in JSN’s stratosphere in terms of yards per route run? Well, that player is Puka Nacua, at 3.44. Davante Adams isn’t as elite as his teammate, but his absurd TD equity keeps him as a fringe WR1 as well.
Tight Ends
Elijah Arroyo and AJ Barner are splitting time to the extent that neither is playable. The same goes for the Rams’ stable of tight ends: Tyler Higgbe, Colby Parkinson, and Terrance Ferguson all ran 13 routes (35%) last week, and Davis Allen saw eight too for good measure.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Ravens 23.25, Browns 15.75
Compared to the rest of the afternoon slate, this is a boring matchup. The Browns’ defense is good enough that they can never truly be counted out, but I have faith in Lamar Jackson and Co. to take care of business against their division rivals.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson hasn’t quite been his usual dynamic self since returning to the field, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt as a top-tier fantasy QB until proven otherwise. Dillon Gabriel posted his first career top-12 (or even top-17) weekly finish last week, but he’s still only playable if you have truly no other options. With some key players back from injury, the Ravens’ defense isn’t as weak in reality as it is on paper.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry has actually been seeing receiving work in the Ravens’ backfield over the last few weeks, and that trend should continue with Justice Hill out this week. Even against an elite Cleveland run D that shut him down earlier this season, the King is a borderline RB1. Keaton Mitchell may also be worth a dart throw with Hill sidelined. For the Browns, it’s all about Quinshon Judkins; Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson split the majority of the team’s receiving work, but neither sees enough total touches to be viable. A non-receiving back on a bad offense that is projected to lose big is a risky prospect, but Judkins has been good this season — he is a backend RB2.
Wide Receivers
He may be allergic to the end zone, but Zay Flowers is the Ravens’ clear top target. He’s a solid WR2, with upside if that allergy regresses away. With Rashod Bateman out, DeAndre Hopkins should see more routes than usual. However, I don’t know if Baltimore will let the 33-year-old play a legitimately full-time role — he’s just a risky deep flex option. Jerry Jeudy finally made good on his WR1 usage last week with a big game. But until he does it again, there’s no reason to believe it’s more than a fluke — he’s a good flex play, nothing more. Cedric Tillman ran plenty of routes but only caught two passes for 11 yards in his return from injury last week, so he’s more of a dart-throw flex option.
Tight Ends
Is Mark Andrews going to repeat his magic trick from the second half of last season of maintaining TE1 value on a ~60% route share by racking up TDs? Maybe, but I want to see it at least once more before I trust him as more than a high-upside TE2. Isaiah Likely might see more usage with Bateman out, but he’s still not more than a desperation play. For Cleveland, Harold Fannin Jr. posted a 74% route participation rate last week, even with David Njoku (49%) healthy. The rookie is a borderline TE1, while the vet is in danger off falling entirely off the fantasy radar.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Chiefs 24.00, Broncos 20.50
As reflected by the fact that they are 3.5-point favorites on the road, the Chiefs are better than the Broncos. But Denver leads the AFC West at 8-2, while Kansas City sits in third at 5-4. This is a must-win for Patrick Mahomes and Co.
Quarterbacks
The Broncos’ defense is the second-toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. But I’m not going to doubt Patrick Mahomes in such an important matchup, with all his weapons healthy. He’s maybe more of a back-half QB1 than the elite option he has been for most of the season, but he’s still a solid starter. This has been a rocky season for Bo Nix, but he still ranks as the QB10 in points per game (although that ranking is massively helped by one 40-point outing). But the Chiefs’ defense is no pushover, and this total is low — Nix is a QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco is set to miss another week for the Chiefs. In his absence prior to Kansas City’s bye, Kareem Hunt served as a bellcow, with Brashard Smith seeing just a handful of touches. With the tough matchup, Hunt projects as a high-end RB3, but don’t be surprised if he rumbles his way to RB2 or better production. The Broncos are also missing their usual RB1, as J.K. Dobbins is out with a foot injury. Rookie RJ Harvey should serve as the lead back, although Tyler Badie will likely also be involved as a pass-catcher. Harvey is a backend RB2, with upside for more if he can consolidate work (which I might argue is more likely than many are giving him credit for).
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice’s profile is weird — he still has just a 6.3-yard ADOT — but there’s no arguing with the results. He is a must-start WR1 despite the bad matchup. Xavier Worthy has been less productive since Rice’s return, but he’s still running routes and has a 20% target share in each of the last two games. He’s a boom/bust backend WR3. Marquise Brown is still involved enough on this elite offense to warrant mentioning, but not enough that I’d want to play him. For the Broncos, Troy Franklin has officially surpassed Courtland Sutton as the team’s WR1 — he has seen more routes and more targets in each of the last three weeks. Sutton is still playable as a WR3, but Franklin is pushing toward the WR2 conversation. With Marvin Mims Jr. returning, I’m not playing him or Pat Bryant until we see how their usage shakes out.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce may be a shell of his former self, but that shell keeps scoring fantasy points. He’s a TE1. Evan Engram still isn’t a full-time player, but he’s posted a 67% route participation rate in each of the last two weeks. That’s enough for him to be a TE2, given his high target rate when he is on the field.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Lions 22.00, Eagles 24.50
The vibes around these two teams couldn’t be more different. The Eagles are coming off a very ugly game against the Packers and are once again racking up off-field drama. The Lions just dropped a dominant 44-point outing on the Commanders in Dan Campbell’s first game calling plays. And yet, the reigning Super Bowl champions are still the favorite for this Sunday Night Football game. Perhaps vibes aren’t everything.
Quarterbacks
The ultimate “vibes aren’t everything” play is the Tush Push, and Jalen Hurts is the beneficiary. It’s not always pretty, but he is still averaging over 20 points per game. That makes him a no-doubt QB1 in what could be a shootout. I wish I could say that Jared Goff is a QB1 going forward with Dan Campbell at the controls, but the Eagles’ defense is a different level of challenge than the Commanders’. Especially given that this is a low implied total by the Lions’ standards, Goff is just a QB2.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley’s fantasy profile has taken a step back in just about every possible way since 2024 … and he’s still a backend RB1. Jahmyr Gibbs had the massive game, but it was actually David Montgomery whose usage improved last week. With that said, I still don’t have to tell you who I mean when I saw one of them is a legit RB1 and the other is a borderline RB2.
Wide Receivers
Will A.J. Brown get his grease after being an incredibly squeaky wheel this week? Honestly, I think yes — last week was his first time below a 20% target share since Week 1. He is a high-end WR2 with significant upside. However, the gap has narrowed between him and DeVonta Smith, who is also a high-end WR2 this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown weirdly saw significantly worse usage than usual last week, but he’s still a WR1 until proven otherwise (after all, he still scored a solid 14.3 points). Jameson Williams was perhaps the beneficiary of St. Brown’s reduced usage, but it’s fair to be skeptical of his ability to command targets in tougher matchups. He’s a high-end, high-upside WR3.
Tight Ends
It might not feel like it, but Dallas Goedert is the TE4 in points per game. He’s a no-brainer TE1. Sam LaPorta has been ruled out with a back injury; you can probably do better in replacing him than Brock Wright.
Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Cowboys 26.75, Raiders 23.25
Believe it or not, we’ve saved the “best” for last, as this matchup of defensively-challenged franchises in a dome has the highest total of the week. I’m a little bit suspicious of how well Chip Kelly’s offense will be able to keep up, but Dallas’ defense is atrocious. Hopefully, we get some Monday night fireworks.
Quarterbacks
He’s not gotten much attention because the Cowboys are bad, but Dak Prescott has been playing at an elite level this season. Facing a beatable Vegas defense, he is a solid QB1. Geno Smith has been mostly terrible so far as a Raider, but the Cowboys’ secondary has helped worse quarterbacks have big days. He’s a QB2.
Running Backs
Believe it or not, Javonte Williams ranks fourth among qualified RBs in PFF Rushing Grade this season. Of course, that doesn’t help him score fantasy points, but being the bell cow on an elite offense does. He is a solid RB1. Ashton Jeanty is also a solid RB1 — the rookie has struggled with the rest of Vegas’ offense at times, but he has the talent and workload on his side. In this matchup, that should be more than enough.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb is an elite WR1. George Pickens has been notably worse for fantasy with his superstar teammate healthy, but he’s still a high-end WR2. With Jakobi Meyers in Jacksonville, Tre Tucker and Tyler Lockett were the Raiders’ top two receivers last week. Given that Dallas is the absolute dream matchup for WRs, Tucker is a WR3 and Lockett is a flex option.
Tight Ends
Like Pickens, Jake Ferguson has slowed down since Lamb’s return from injury. But he’s still a solid TE1. Brock Bowers went from a true explosion game in Week 9 straight to a true dud in Week 10. He’ll probably land somewhere in the middle, which would land him as a top-tier TE1.
