Week 10 Fantasy Football Recap: Top 10 Takeaways

Can you believe we are already 10 weeks into the NFL and fantasy football season? I sure can’t. But time flies, and it’s time to start looking toward the fantasy football playoffs. Whether you’re competing for a bye or just hoping to stay alive, every decision counts. With that in mind, here are my top 10 fantasy usage takeaways from Week 10’s action. 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 10

Troy Franklin is the Broncos’ WR1

One week can be a fluke, and two weeks is often just noise. But three weeks is a trend. Over the last three weeks, Troy Franklin has unambiguously been the Broncos’ top wide receiver. He has led Denver in route share (88%), target share (28%), and air yards share (48%). He also led the team in both routes and targets in each individual game in this span.

Unsurprisingly, this has corresponded with a decrease in Courtland Sutton’s involvement. Sutton has averaged a 17% target share and 27% air yards share since Week 8, down from 19% and 31% in Weeks 1-7. Sean Payton does have a tendency of changing his personnel usage seemingly at random, so things could switch again. But for now, Franklin should take Sutton’s spot as a fantasy WR2, while the veteran is more of a flex option. 

J.K. Dobbins is Injured

Let’s stay with Denver, as their ugly Thursday Night Football slugfest with the Raiders also produced one more key fantasy takeaway. J.K. Dobbins suffered a foot injury that could potentially land him on IR. 

Dobbins actually finished the game in Week 10, so we didn’t get a good look at how this backfield will look without him. Rookie RJ Harvey is the obvious main beneficiary, but Tyler Badie will likely also be involved and is worth considering in deep leagues. We know Payton likes to use more than one back, and Badie has played 105 snaps to Harvey’s 185 so far this season. 

Derrick Henry — Receiving Back?

For essentially his entire career, Derrick Henry has been the rare running back to be an elite fantasy option despite having a negligible receiving role. In his career, he has more than twice as many games with zero receptions (46) as he has with three or more (21). Since he joined the Ravens last season, he has consistently ceded snaps on clear passing downs to Justice Hill.

But that has changed in the last few weeks. In Weeks 1-6, Henry averaged a 23% route participation rate and never once ran more routes than Hill. Over the last three weeks, Henry has posted participation rates of 28%, 37%, and 42%, with more routes than Hill in every week. In Week 10, this resulted in Henry easily setting his new season high with a 10.3% target share. 

Of course, a 10.3% target share (which was only three targets) is still nothing too special. Truly elite receiving backs see shares of 15% or higher, and 17 backs have averaged above that number this season. But Henry was already a top fantasy asset even with essentially no receiving work. His explosive ability in space also means every target is extra valuable. If this keeps up, it’s a non-negligible increase to his value going forward. 

The Browns Have a New TE1

Harold Fannin Jr. ran more routes than David Njoku (in a game that both started and finished) for the first time in Week 8. But that was the veteran’s first week back from an injury, so there’s no guarantee it would continue. But the gap between the two only grew after the Browns’ Week 9 bye. Fannin ran 74% of the Browns’ routes, easily his new high in a game with Njoku healthy. Njoku, meanwhile, fell to 49%, easily his lowest mark in a healthy game.

For the season, the Browns’ offense ranks third in TE target share and second in TE targets. If Fannin can consolidate the majority of those looks, he can be a legit weekly TE1. Njoku, on the other hand, is going to fall off the fantasy radar completely unless something changes. 

Colston Loveland’s Mediocre Encore

Unfortunately, not all rookie tight ends have cemented themselves as starters over their veteran counterparts. Colston Loveland had a massive game in Week 9, racking up over 100 yards and two touchdowns. But Cole Kmet left that game early with a concussion. Kmet returned this week, and the first-round rookie immediately returned to a part-time role.

Against the Giants, Loveland posted just a 51% route participation rate on a 62% snap share (Kmet was at 44% and 66%). To be fair, he managed an okay fantasy day, catching all four of his targets for 40 yards. But, especially on a run-heavy offense with multiple other weapons, that usage simply isn’t good enough. Loveland does not belong in the TE1 conversation until he actually plays a full-time role in a game where Kmet is healthy. 

Traded WRs Make Their Debuts …

Honestly, I don’t know exactly what to make of Rashid Shaheed and Jakobi Meyers’ respective debuts with their new teams. They both played part-time roles, but that was to be expected. Shaheed only saw one target in a game that the Seahawks had won before it even really began. Meyers made a few nice catches but ran the same number of routes as Johnny Mundt (and fewer than Tim Patrick).

Going forward, the question is how much each WR’s role will expand as they learn their new playbooks. If Shaheed can overtake Cooper Kupp to be Seattle’s WR2 behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, he could be an exciting flex play with how well Sam Darnold has been playing in Klint Kubiak’s offense. With Brian Thomas Jr. still sidelined and Travis Hunter officially done for the season, the only player standing between Meyers and a valuable WR1 role is Parker Washington. 

If I had to guess, both players will eventually make the required jumps up their depth charts to be viable fantasy options. After all, NFL teams don’t trade for players to not use them. But we’ve seen that happen before (looking at you, 2024 Amari Cooper). It’s hard to settle into a new team halfway through a season. Don’t give up on Meyers or Shaheed after uninspiring debuts, but don’t assume they will reach full-time usage until we actually see it. 

… And What They Left Behind

While I can’t draw many actionable takeaways from how traded WRs performed in their new homes, I can make hot takes based on who filled the voids they left behind in New Orleans and Vegas. After all, those guys already know their playbooks.

For the Raiders, Meyers’ departure unsurprisingly resulted in Tre Tucker (94% route participation rate) serving as the team’s WR1. They also heavily relied on two-TE sets, with Brock Bowers (71%) and Michael Mayer (40%). But the real question was who would serve as the team’s WR2. And the answer was Tyler Lockett, who ironically probably is still learning the Raiders’ playbook — he debuted for Vegas in Week 9 after being released by the Titans. 

Along with posting a 66% route participation rate, Lockett actually led the team with six targets. He caught five for 44 yards and 8.7 half-PPR points. That’s not bad, given how much both offenses struggled in this game. However, Lockett is only relevant in disgustingly deep leagues. Perhaps the more relevant takeaway is that it is officially time to give up on rookies Dont’e Thornton and Jack Bech as second-half breakouts.

Thankfully, we had more exciting developments in the Saints’ WR room with Shaheed gone. Former Bronco Devaughn Vele posted a literally perfect 100% route participation rate. He caught just one of three targets (11% target share) for 15 yards, so the results weren’t there. But, according to Fantasy Points Data’s numbers, this was just the ninth instance all season of a WR posting a 100% participation rate. Especially given how fast Kellen Moore’s Saints have been playing, Vele is a player to add now in deeper formats. 

Houston, We Have an RB1

For most of this season, the Texans’ backfield has been a fairly even committee. Rookie Woody Marks was the lead receiving back and Nick Chubb took the lead on the ground, but they split the overall work fairly evenly. In fact, coming into Week 10, they had essentially identical expected fantasy point totals: 70.1 per Chubb and 67.7 for Marks (per PFF). 

But that changed this week. It was a negative game script, so it makes sense that Marks saw more work. But his 78% snap share was his new career high, as was his 74% RB rush share. Chubb played just 14% of the Texans’ snaps, nearly a third of his previous average of 41% and well behind his previous low of 26%. 

Of course, one of the first things I said in this article is that one game can be a fluke. Week 11 against the Titans, what should be a positive game script, will be a good test of how this backfield will shake out going forward. If Chubb returns with a vengeance, we are back to business as usual. But if Marks is still the clear RB1, the rookie is suddenly a very intriguing option heading into a soft schedule to finish the season. 

Why Brian Daboll’s Firing Hurts Jaxson Dart’s Fantasy Value

Brian Daboll was fired by the Giants after their loss to the Bears on Sunday. Normally, a coach being fired midseason is only a positive or neutral thing for fantasy — coaches aren’t fired when their offenses are humming along nicely. But this might be the rare exception.

Reportedly, part of the reason for Daboll’s firing may have been that he was overly aggressive with rookie QB Jaxson Dart. This makes sense from the Giants’ perspective, as Dart is hopefully the future of their franchise; using him as a battering ram in a losing season does nothing to help them. However, being used as a battering ram was a huge part of Dart’s appeal as a fantasy QB.

I wrote just last week about how Dart’s unique rushing workload was a huge part of his fantasy value. Heading into Week 10, he led all quarterbacks with 5.2 designed attempts per game. That allowed him to make up for mediocre passing stats (under 200 yards and two TDs through the air per game). With Daboll gone (and coming off a concussion), that number is almost certain to go down for Dart. And with it goes most of his appeal as a fantasy QB1. 

Dan Campbell Takes Over Playcalling 

Dan Campbell took over offensive playcalling duties for the Lions on Sunday, and they immediately scored 44 points. It’s unclear how much credit is due to Campbell and how much goes to the Commanders’ terrible defense, but this is still something worth noting. Again, we don’t want to draw too much from a one-game sample size, but here are some changes that may have been due to Campbell’s influence:

• The Lions posted a pass rate above expectation for the first time all season (per Fantasy Points Data)
• Jameson Williams posted a 20% target share for just the third time
• Williams also had his best fantasy outing of the year
• David Montgomery posted a 46% route participation rate, more than double his previous average
• This was also the first time all year that Montgomery ran more routes than Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown posted a 69% route participation rate, his first time below even 84%
• St. Brown’s 23% target share was also his lowest since Week 1