Week 9 Fantasy Football Recap – Fantasy Football Blueprint

There was literally a game last night, but it already feels too late to be doing fantasy football takeaways from Week 9, as the NFL world has moved on to the trade deadline. Still, let’s take a second to look back at the most important trends, stats, and narratives from Week 9 … and I might talk about some trades at the end.

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 9

J.J. McCarthy’s First Game Back

We may never know if the Vikings would have stuck with Carson Wentz over J.J. McCarthy if they had the choice. They didn’t, so McCarthy was out there on Sunday to face the Lions. And the 22-year-old performed … okay. He did enough to lead the Vikings to an upset win and, thanks to a rushing TD, finished with 19.9 fantasy points.

However, the Vikings’ offense is not the same with McCarthy under center. Specifically, they have a pass rate 3.3% below expected in the sophomore’s three starts, compared to 4.6% above expected in their games without him (per Fantasy Points Data). McCarthy is averaging just 12.7 completed passes for 148 yards. Until that changes, he isn’t fantasy-relevant in 1-QB leagues, and Minnesota’s receiving weapons must be downgraded.

Aaron Jones is Minnesota’s RB1

Let’s stay with the Vikings a bit longer, as there is an interesting situation unfolding in Minnesota’s backfield. It’s obscured because the Vikings were blown out in Week 8 and then he left early in Week 9 with a shoulder injury, but Aaron Jones has been the Vikings’ clear RB1 since his return from injury.

Jones exited after just two plays in the third quarter on Sunday, so we basically have a sample size of 1.5 games. In those three halves, the veteran played 62% of Minnesota’s snaps, handled 60% of their RB rushes, and saw six targets on a route participation rate above 50%. Mason saw six carries (a 30% share) and two targets on a 31% snap share. Assuming Jones recovers from his reportedly minor injury, this is likely the last chance to buy him (or sell Mason) before it becomes more clear that he is the team’s RB1.

Brock Bowers is BACK

To say Brock Bowers returned with a bang on Sunday would be a massive understatement. After first playing injured and then eventually missing three games with a knee injury, the sophomore TE exploded for 37.3 half-PPR points against the Jaguars. That’s the most points any non-QB has scored this year. This performance was so good that there’s nothing really to say except that Bowers is clearly back as an elite must-start TE1.

Rico Dowdle is Unstoppable

Speaking of elite must-start options, we have … Rico Dowdle? It sounds weird, but the Panthers’ RB has averaged exactly 30.0 half-PPR points in his three starts this season. Two came with Chuba Hubbard sidelined against soft run defenses, but his third massive outing came this Sunday against a tough Packers defense, with Hubbard active. Dowdle obviously won’t keep up this level of dominance forever, but there’s no reason he can’t be a weekly RB2 (at least) with how well he has played this season.

Alec Pierce … WR1??

What if I told you that there was a receiver who checked the following boxes:

12th in the NFL in receiving yards per game
19% target share
45% air yards share
On the league’s best offense by EPA and points per game
Available in over 80% of leagues

Assuming you read the section header, you’ve probably already guessed that this mystery receiver exists, and his name is Alec Pierce. Pierce had his best game of the season with six catches for 115 yards on 12 (or 13, depending on your source) targets on Sunday, but he has quietly been seeing valuable usage in the Colts’ elite offense all season. Add him if he is available in your league.

Devin Singletary vs. Tyrone Tracy Jr.

The consensus expectation heading into Week 9 was that, with Cam Skattebo done for the season, sophomore RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. would lead the Giants’ backfield. But that wasn’t the case. Instead, veteran journeyman Devin Singletary led New York in snaps (55%) and carries (eight to Tracy’s five).

To be fair, Tracy did have the lead in the receiving game, with more targets (four to two) on a higher route rate (46% to 36%). But at worst, Singletary will be similarly valuable for fantasy purposes if this usage continues. More likely, the veteran is the slightly better option in what is undeniably an ugly committee. Don’t expect too much, but add Singletary if you need RB help for the rest of the season.

Can Jaxson Dart Keep Getting Away With It?

Part of the reason that we have to keep expectations low for the Giants’ backfield is that rookie QB Jaxson Dart is claiming valuable rushing work for himself. Since taking over as the team’s starter in Week 4, Dart is averaging 41.8 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game on the ground. He is carrying the ball 8.2 times per game, with 39% of his attempts being scrambles and the remainder being designed QB runs.

Unsurprisingly, this level of rushing volume has turned into fantasy success for Dart. He has scored at least 17.6 points in every start, and his 22.9-point average would rank fourth behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes for the season. On the one hand, this level of rushing production (especially nearly a TD per game) is probably unsustainable. On the other hand, Dart leads QBs in rushing attempts per start, so maybe it’s not. At this point, just rolling him out there as a backend QB1 until he lets you down isn’t a bad idea if your other options are uninspiring pocket passers.

Cyclone Watch Cancelled in Houston

Fantasy managers around the world got excited about rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel (both former Iowa State Cyclones) in recent weeks. Unfortunately, the returns of Nico Collins and Christian Kirk in Week 9 stopped those hype trains before they could really get going. Higgins, who could have theoretically at least been the team’s second outside WR along with Collins, played behind Xavier Hutchinson. The veteran had a 66% route participation rate to the rookie’s 40%.

And if you think a 40% route participation rate is bad — which it is — you don’t even want to know what Noel was at. He ran just five routes for an 11% participation rate. At this point, neither of these rookies is rosterable outside of insanely deep leagues.

Rashid Shaheed Sent to Seattle

Both of the Saints’ top receivers, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, were rumored to be potentially on the move heading into today’s NFL Trade Deadline. In the end, it was the speedy Shaheed who was traded, reuniting with former Saints OC Klint Kubiak in Seattle. It’s hard to say whether this is a win for Shaheed — he will likely see less volume, but the looks he does see will be far more efficient. If he can secure himself as the Seahawks’ WR2 behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, he could emerge as a high-variance weekly WR3.

As with any trade of a fantasy-relevant player, this move also has ripple effects. Olave and TE Juwan Johnson deserve slight upgrades as they should see a few more targets. In deeper formats, Brandin Cooks and/or Devaughn Vele could become relevant as they will compete to replace Shaheed as New Orleans’ WR2. In Seattle, this move is very bad for the fantasy values of Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton. They were both already only barely relevant, so you can consider dropping them in most formats.

Jakobi Meyers Joins Jacksonville

We saw one other fantasy-relevant WR on the move today, as Jakobi Meyers finally got his wish to be traded out of Vegas. He joins a Jacksonville receiving room that was desperate for options with Travis Hunter on IR and Brian Thomas Jr. dealing with a high-ankle sprain. Meyers hasn’t been his usual target-earning self so far this season, but he should get a chance to return to relevance in Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, it’s fairly easy to break down how other players are impacted. Those left behind in Vegas (Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer, and some combination of Tyler Lockett/Jack Bech/Dont’e Thornton) are upgraded. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ other secondary targets — notably Parker Washington — are downgraded.