Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Quarterbacks

It’s been a while since I have seen concentrated ownership at QB like this week. I’m showing Daniels at around 24% with Mahomes around 15% and Prescott sitting at 12%. All in good spots, no doubt. The safest floor of the week belongs to Jalen Hurts in my books, and at just 3% projected ownership, his upside comes with leverage. Caleb Williams and Herbert are the next tier of chalk. Caleb is so underpriced that I will have a hard time not locking him in most of my lineups, while Herbert finally has some chemistry with Ladd and gets QJ back this week. I would be remiss if I did not mention the top 2 leverage plays of the week in a bounce back for Justin Fields at just over 1% ownership and taking another shot at Brissett at the ridiculous value of $4500. QB presents a ton of variety this week and there is no need to concentrate with the field.

Top End Pivots:
Hurts
Maye
Love

Mid Range Targets:
Nix
Daniel Jones
Williams

Tipsy Pick:
Fields

Running Backs
I talked about loving Javonte Williams and Judkins this week, and it looks like we are not alone. Both are the only 2 over 20% this week, but are both in smash spots. I will use them liberally, but I will always be looking for pivots. The rest of the chalk rounds out with Taylor, Jacobs, JCM, Swift, and Hall. I like ’em all, but Hall really. Two high-end pivots stand out at less than 8% owned and have 2 TD upside in Achane and Barkley. I will be saving money at QB and TE this week, so pivoting up is in play. Hubbard being back really muddies Rico for me. I’ll let others take that shot. I don’t love the value this week. Vidal feels like chasing points. I believe Carter gets more run than Knight. It doesn’t seem like a Hunt week, and I hate the split situation with Stevenson and Henderson. Looks like I am still in on the early week take of Judkins and Javonte and build from there.

Top End Pivots:
Achane
Barkley 
Jeanty

Mid Range Targets:
Dobbins or…
Just play the Mid Range Chalk

Bargain Shots:
Not this slate

Tipsy Pick:
Carter???

Wide Receivers
Rice coming back against LV at $5600 is straight silly. I expect over 40% ownership or even more in small contests. I still think it’s good chalk, but there is a chance he’s rusty and take a week to get back in sync with Mahomes. Pat has been playing MVP level though so it feels very safe. Deebo comes in at over 20% and you can always make a case to fade him as he is boom or bust most weeks, but Terry remains out and its a good game environment. The high end pivots are still popular in guys like Pickens, Oduze, and Tet but it’s hard to argue their talent. Waddle seems easy to me, and Quentin Johnston to break away from the crowd at decent pricing. I’m looking for a bounce back from Pittman, Sutton and Mims against the Giants, and another Shaheed sighting at under 5k.

Top End Pivots:
Waddle
Pickens

Mid Range Targets:
Johnston
Pittman
Olave
Meyers
Hollywood

Value Plays:
Shaheed
Jeudy
Boutte
Mims
Moore

Tipsy:
Ayomanor

Tight Ends
Warren, Ertz, McBride, and Ferguson lead ownership, and no complaints from me. Easy Pivots to Kraft or Kelce at the top end, with mid range locked in with Fannin are where I will play mostly. I don’t hate Waller but being so TD dependant at over 4k is harder for me to click. Goedert is going underowned at the top and cheaper players in Taylor and Mayer can provide a spark and savings.

Top End Pivots:
Goedert
Kraft
Kelce

Mid Range Targets:
Fannin
Mayer
Taylor

Values:
Juwan Johnson
Gadsden

Tipsy:
Chig!