The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Source of my ownership and simulations to find pivot suggestions: https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

Draftkings Sunday 2 Gamer

Quarterbacks:
You don’t make it this far without a competent QB, so all four should have an argument to make for your lineups. Ownership says Mahomes is the chalk, and I’ll be honest, I am least interested in him. He doesn’t have the upside of any of the other three and add that into the worst projections and highest ownership, and you won’t find him in a single lineup of mine. Hard fade. It’s a 2-gamer, and anything can happen, but put your trust elsewhere.

Allen predicted to have the lowest ownership in my Sims is wild. If one person is going to will a victory single-handedly, it’s Josh Allen. I think the leg injury to Hurts last week could be an issue as the game grinds on. On paper, Philly is the better team, but Jayden Daniels has some magic, and though I do think the Eagles win, Daniels has the highest upside and pivot score. I’ll be 75% on him and 25% on Allen.

Lock: Daniels
Ownership Pivot: Allen
Hard Pass: Mahomes

Running Backs:
Barkley, of course, will be the highest owned but is the only legit 100-yard rusher. I don’t know if you can make up his points anywhere else by not playing him. If I play 150 lineups, I play him in every single one. Sometimes, the right ownership pivot is to go way over-exposed instead of fading. Hunt, Cook, Robinson, and Ekeler are the only guys I can play without feeling like a total punt. Cook is the only other RB besides Barkley, who even has a projection over 10 points. Ray Davis or Ty Johnson can steal touches, but no real rhyme or reason for who is gonna get them. Gainwell only in a total blowout or Saquan injury. All I know for sure is Pacheco is a hard pass as well; I can not pay that much for someone who might get fewer looks than Ray Davis. Ownership behind Barkley goes Cook, Ekeler, Hunt, Robinson Jr if that helps.

Lock: Barkley
Like: Hunt, Ekeler, Cook
Pivot: Robinson
Fade: Pacheco and RB Punt Plays

Wide Receivers:
The top five in ownership are Worthy, Hollywood Brown, A.J. Brown, Shakir, and Smith. Take out Hollywood immediately; nothing I have seen so far justifies his ownership or points, and if I miss this week on that, so be it. Those five in cash or small GPPs are predicted at almost 75% owned each. Let me pivot to Terry McLaurin coming in under all these guys in ownership and sneaking into my #1 projected spot. Give me any of the value Commanders wideouts over any of the bargain plays this week. Bring in Samuel, Crowder, and Hollins for value, and I think we can make the best of the name-brand plays work. Mostly, I am fading Smith and A.J. Brown along with Hurts, as the Eagles are going to win with Barkley and Defense, or they will lose to the dynamic Commanders, commander.

Lock: McLaurin
Like: Shakir, Worthy
Value: OZ, Dyami Brown, Crowder, Samuel, Hollins
Ownership Fade: Hollywood, Eagles Receivers

Tight Ends:
Ownership is spot on, and there are no real punts even besides Dawson Knox, and I don’t really like that one. Kelce if you can afford it makes sense. Likely/Andrews combined for 9 for 134 and a TD against these Bills last week, and that just sounds like the proper line Kelce is going to put up, doesn’t it?  More likely, if you are fading Kelce, it is because you couldn’t get to him, so it makes sense to go down, and any of the remaining three favorites work fine in Goedert, Ertz, and Kincaid. Pair with your QB as best you can.

Lock: Kelce
Pivot: Goedert, Ertz, Kincaid
Avoid: Cheap punt plays

Defense:
All are valid, and when that happens, I usually play cheap. WSH or BUF are just fine.