Week 14 Thursday Night Football
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Over/Under: 51.5
We’ve got an exciting showdown at the top of the NFC North tonight! Despite the Lions’ defense being decimated (14 players on IR), they continue to find ways to win. Meanwhile, the Packers have been on a hot streak and are seeking revenge for their Week 9 loss to Detroit in the rain.
This game features the highest Over/Under (51.5) of the week, setting the stage for what could be an offensive shootout. The Lions’ injuries are concentrated in their front seven (linemen and linebackers), while the Packers are missing key pieces in their secondary. These factors suggest a high-scoring game, with Detroit struggling to stop the Packers’ run game and Green Bay’s Jordan Love likely facing minimal pressure.
Detroit will need to control possession and score often to keep pace, setting up a thrilling primetime battle.
Top Plays and Strategy
Captain Considerations
- Favorite Captain: Josh Jacobs
With Detroit’s banged-up front seven, Jacobs is poised for a massive game. He’ll likely be the most popular Captain choice, and for good reason.
Lineup Structure
- Focus on balanced lineups (4-2 or 3-3) to maximize exposure to both offenses.
- With soft pricing on DraftKings, there’s room for creativity. Tight Ends and Kickers are in the $5K range, while Dontayvion Wicks stands out at just $4,200 as a great value play with Romeo Doubs out.
High-Risk, High-Reward Play
- Consider Captaining a Tight End (e.g., Sam LaPorta or Tucker Kraft) for large-entry tournaments. Their low salaries provide upside in a high-scoring game.
Projected Ownership
Captain
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 17.03%
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 11.76%
- Josh Jacobs: 9.26%
- David Montgomery: 8.33%
- Jared Goff: 7.54%
- Jayden Reed: 7.48%
- Jordan Love: 7.03%
Flex
- Jared Goff: 51.27%
- Jordan Love: 47.8%
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 42.48%
- Josh Jacobs: 36.91%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 36.57%
- Jayden Reed: 35.61%
- David Montgomery: 32.28%
- Sam LaPorta: 30.14%
Notable Plays
- Christian Watson ($6,600): Projected at only 24% ownership in Flex, Watson has slate-breaking potential against Detroit’s injury-plagued secondary.
- Tim Patrick ($3,400): Detroit’s WR3 has solidified his role, averaging around four targets per game, often in clutch third-and-long situations. With 11% projected ownership, Patrick is a strong low-cost option.
- Fading Jake Bates: Green Bay allows the fewest field goal attempts in the league, making Bates a low-upside option.
Lineup Building Tips
- Preferred Captain: Josh Jacobs. He’s set up for success against Detroit’s weakened run defense, and Green Bay will aim to keep the Lions’ offense off the field.
- Montgomery vs. Gibbs: Alternate these two in lineups but avoid playing them together.
- High-Scoring Potential: If this becomes a shootout, Jameson Williams is a prime breakout candidate. Plan to include him in 30-40% of your lineups.
- Fade Defenses: With both Tight Ends, Kickers, and Dontayvion Wicks priced similarly, focus on offensive players in high-scoring builds.
This game promises fireworks, and with the right lineup construction, it could be a lucrative slate. Good luck!