We’re already at Week 9 of the NFL season—time flies!
Tonight’s showdown slate is tricky to navigate. On paper, it looks like a running back battle, which makes Breece Hall and Joe Mixon appealing Captain choices. According to simulations on DFSHero.com and other expert recommendations, Hall and Mixon are projected as the top Captains, each with over 18% ownership. In contrast, the wide receivers are coming in much lower, with Garrett Wilson leading the way at just 10%. I’ll be running my usual 20 lineups and, based on these ownership projections, plan to use only a couple of Captain slots for each of Hall and Mixon.
For Flex spots, Hall and Mixon have over 50% ownership, and I’m comfortable eating this chalk. Instead, I’ll differentiate by fading C.J. Stroud, who’s projected at 33% ownership. With limited receiving options and a tough road matchup, I’ll only include Stroud in a few Houston-focused lineups.
Tonight offers some great value plays as well. John Metchie ($2800), Robert Woods ($3000), and Xavier Hutchinson ($4000) all feel underpriced based on usage. I expect Metchie to be the most popular value play at just $2800. Braelon Allen from the Jets has recently seen more carries and is only $6600, making him another strong option.
With the Over/Under set at 42, kickers and defenses are definitely in play for this low-scoring matchup.
Captain Slot Exposure:
- Aaron Rodgers 20%
- Garrett Wilson 20%
- Davante Adams 20%
- Breece Hall 10%
- Joe Mixon 10%
- Tank Dell 10%
- Dalton Schultz 10%
Flex Exposure:
- Joe Mixon 63.16%
- Breece Hall 63.16%
- Jets 57.89%
- John Metchie III 57.89%
- Aaron Rodgers 52.63%
- Riley Patterson 47.37%
- Dalton Schultz 36.84%
- C.J. Stroud 21.05%
- Ka’imi Fairbairn 15.79%
- Texans 15.79%
- Robert Woods 15.79%
- Garrett Wilson 15.79%
- Braelon Allen 10.53%
- Tyler Conklin 10.53%
- Davante Adams 5.26%
- Xavier Hutchinson 5.26%
- Tank Dell 5.26%
Good luck tonight, and let’s hope these choices hit!