Football is back and so is one of my favorite formats, the DraftKings Showdown Captain Mode. For anyone who is new to the format, this is a single-game contest where you roster a Captain at 1.5x salary for 1.5x points. You also roster 5 flex spots at normal price. With such a small player pool, duplicate lineups are common and most prizes are chopped. Therefore we need to try and find leverage to minimize chops or to win outright. Let’s take a look at some historical data and see what we can find.
My Philosophy
Just a few notes I keep in mind when constructing lineups
- Ownership does not matter for top players (QB1, RB1, WR1)
- Don’t roster Kickers or Defense in the Captain slot
- Kickers (Flex) typically outperform other positions at the same salary
- Play Tournaments only. Embrace the volatility of the GPP!
- Only play tournaments you can MAX enter. I play 20 max, 3 max and single entry.
- Stick to 4-2 and 5-1 lineups
- Don’t roster both defenses
- Roster a max of 2 of any combination of Kicker and Defense
Give me some data!
(Updated for 2024)
Captain Slot Winning Position
- 35% Wide Receiver
- 25% Running Back
- 21% Quarterback
- 10% Tight End
- 5% Defense
- 0.5% Kicker
Vegas Odds: 62% of winning lineups roster a Captain from the favored team
Correlations
- 87% of winning lineups with a CPT WR had the same team QB
- 50% of winning lineups with a CPT QB had 2 same team pass catchers
- 58% of winning lineups with a CPT QB had the opposing team QB in Flex
The more salary you use, the more the lineup will be duplicated. Using max salary duplicates lineups at over a 20% rate! I like to keep my salary between $48,000 and $48,500.
TNF DFS Showdown Week 1
Baltimore at Kansas City (-3)
O/U 47
The NFL has given us a rematch of the AFC Championship game from last season. The Chiefs are slight home favorites. I think this is going to be a close game and there is value to be found, especially on the Baltimore side.
Looking at the pricing we can find value with Mark Andrews ($9600 Cpt / $6400 Flex) and Rashee Rice ($11,400 Cpt / $7600 Flex). Both of these players are my preferred Captains, because of their soft pricing. Patrick Mahomes ($15,600 Cpt / $10,400 Flex) and Lamar Jackson ($17,100 Cpt / $11,400 Flex) are priced at the top and will be incredibly hard to roster in the captain spot, so I prefer them in the Flex, stacking them with their respective receiver.
Kansas City has made an effort to solidify the receiving corps this year and that makes it a little easier to manage for us. Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy should get the most snaps tonight and should be on your stack radar. Worthy is notable for his $5800 Flex price. We don’t know for sure what the rookie’s output will be, but I think it is a good risk to take.
Speaking of snap count, Isaiah Pacheco is pretty much the Chief’s only running back and should get an unusually high number of plays. They signed Samjae Perrine late last week, but I don’t see a high usage count with such a short time to acclimate with the team. Pacheco may be my favorite play in scenarios where KC has the lead most of the game.
Tonight will be the debut of Derrick Henry ($13,500 Cpt / $9000 Flex) as Baltimore’s primary running back, and I am expecting high usage of their new toy. Looking back to last year, when the Raven’s running backs had big game, Lamar had low to average fantasy points. This negative correlation will allow you to free up salary by not rostering them together in lineups.
Lamar’s top passing targets tonight should be Andrews and Zay Flowers, both who make great captains on a Baltimore stack, with Lamar in the Flex. Andrews is my preferred Captain because of his price.
My Favorite Captains
Mark Andrews
Rashee Rice
Isiah Pacheco
Derrick Henry
My Favorite Flex
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Travis Kelce
Zay Flowers
Xavier Worthy
My Favorite Values
Justin Watson ($3200)
Isaiah Likely ($2600)
My Lineup
Mark Andrews (CPT)
Zay Flowers
Lamar Jackson
Isaiah Likely
Travis Kelce
Isiah Pacheco