NFL DFS: Conference Championship

Championship Weekend! 

Danger here, back at it, and excited for the day’s games! Full disclosure I am a Niners fan and fired up for game day! 

49ers @ Eagles(-3) 45.5

The movement on this game has mostly stayed the same hovering between Eagles -3 and Eagles -2.5. If you listen to the media I do, all I hear is SF hasn’t played anyone like the Eagles, and that may be true but let’s look at a few things. 

SF – #1 Scoring Differential, #6 Scoring Per Game, #1 least points allowed, #5 opponent win %

Eagles – #3 Scoring Differential, #3 Scoring per game, #8 least points allowed, #30 opponent win %

Bosa led the NFL in sacks in the last 8 games of the season. Purdy put up the best QBR in the NFL while Philly gave up the 3 highest QBR to opponents in that frame and are second worst in the league in completions allowed. SF is averaging giving up less than a TD in the second half for the last 8 weeks! 

I’m not saying the Niners are a lock to win or even going to win at all, but this should not be looked at as an easy win for Philly. 

Now let’s talk about Philly! We can argue that the talent between QB and top 2 WR is amongst the best in the league. If he hadn’t been banged up and missed a few games Hurts had a real shot at 4000 yards passing and 1000 yards rushing. The Niners have not been truly tested by a running QB. SF is vulnerable to the deep ball where Brown lives… They have perhaps the best pass rush in football and don’t rely on a traditional running game which is SF’s strength in defense. 

There is a reason why this game is marked for 45 points. I like pieces but it really isn’t where I am looking to stack. Looking through DFS ownership projections of the top 5 most owned stacks Hurts and a combo of any of the 3 guys in Brown, Smith, and Goedert will be 3 of the most popular stacks. I think the field is overvaluing the Eagles a tad. It is however nearly a must-play to get one of those 3 pass catchers in your lineups.

Bengals @ Chiefs(-1.5) 48.0

If Mahomes was fully healthy this game would be way higher projected, hopefully, the news keeps being positive on him as each update moves the line higher! Clearly, this should be the higher paced game. Faster paced, more opportunities, more desire to stack.

We started the week as the Bengals stacks and Burrow being the most projected ownership… but as the week went on not only did Philly start popping up more but now the Chiefs and Mahomes! Burrow is now projected as only the 3rd highest-owned QB and I want ALL of it.

I’ll be staying away from the Burrow/Chase/Higgins stack in favor of the Burrow/Chase/Hurst and probably adding Mixon too.

Clearly, you have to like Mahomes, but ownership seems to indicate he isn’t going under-owned due to his ankle injury and if he tweaks it, then there are issues. His WR corp is just not concentrated enough to pair him up confidently outside of Kelce either.

Like last week you have to get creative to get Kelce into high-floor lineups, and he came up in the injury report this week at practice. 

Looking at RB ownership projection its simply crazy to me that McKinnon is where he is at. There is no leverage at taking him when he is only behind CMC in ownership and all signs point to more pass blocking than route running as he has had to do the last 2 games. I am not 100 out on him but I much prefer Pacheco at under 20%.

DFS Plays

QB

I am concentrating on Burrow. Of 20 lineups I am at 8 shares currently, and might go up a couple. I’m lower on Hurts because of his chalk that just feels wrong but I will still have 4-5 builds with him. Leaving a mix between Purdy and Mahomes to fill it out.

RB

CMC- I’m eating the chalk. He is the single clearest path to Victory

Mixon- Might have the highest ceiling of the week if the Bengals get up early

Pacheco- As stated above I’m taking the guy at 18% owned over 50% in this backfield

No interest in Sanders at all but I will have a share or 3 spread out among McKinnon, Perine, Mitchell and Mason.

WR

Chase- I might be 100% invested

Brown/Smith- I am taking one of these guys in almost all spots. I don’t think I will have both in any

Toney- I am planting my flag on KC wideouts here

Deebo/Aiyuk- One of these guys needs to have a game. Much easier to fit Aiyuk though if any.

Flyers will be Quez and Boyd mostly.

TE

I have a lot of builds with 2 guys and they are ALL in good spots. My preferred order..

Kelce

Kittle

Hurst

Goedert

I have a couple of Gray flyers as well in case Kelce bangs up his back.

Cheer and green screens for everyone! 

-Danger