Playoff DFS – Saturday 1/15

Well, what a week 18 we had. Here’s our best lineup – the Tom Brady lineup we so desperately wanted to play in our high-stakes tournament. Instead, went with Big Ben and ended up with a big bust. This Brady lineup was good enough for 183^rd out of 289,801, turning $5 into $75, but it also would have turned into $100,000 in the other tournament. Big Ben did not.

You play DFS long enough and you’re going to have bad beats, regrets, etc. But you also play it long enough and you’ll find the right side of variance, too. Keep on keepin’ on.

We want to treat today’s two-game slate just like a single-game slate. Get unique.

Let’s start with what everyone expects to happen:

1. Bengals to put up a lot of points and easily beat the Raiders.
2. Bills and Patriots to be low-scoring, with Allen and the Bills defense popular.

Knowing that, I like to do three things:

1. Build an “expected” lineup, where I’m just trying to find the most obvious plays in the most obvious lineup construction. If I win, I’ll be winning alongside a whole bunch of people. But I’d still win.
2. Build a lineup that no one expects, but is still plausible.
3. Get wild. Mac Jones as the top QB. Maybe Mac Jones + Bolden. Should’ve called this section “Be Bolden”. Play the 3^rd and 4^th WRs. Play Moreau instead of Waller. You’re not expecting any of this to hit, but if it does, it hits on your lineup alone and you win a lot of money. Just have fun with some cheap lineups here.

I’m going to focus on number 2 – a lineup that no one expects, but is still plausible.

I’m locking in Carr + Jacobs + Waller, coming back with Mixon. I’m going to add Buffalo D and Devin Singletary, but I’d be just as happy with Harris/Stevenson + New England D. Then I’m going to mix and match those other WR spots trying to cover a number of different scenarios – Higgins, Boyd, Beasley, Sanders, etc. This lineup is telling the story that the Bengals and Raiders will shootout – which is far from guaranteed – but it’s leaning to the Raiders side, which most people won’t do.

Some other thoughts today. If you’re going to the optimal Allen lineup, and fading the Raiders, it makes sense to look at the Bengals D.

I’m interested in some lineups with both Harris and Stevenson. Something like Allen + Harris + Stevenson. Then adding Mixon + Bengals D.

And leave money on the table. That’s the easiest way to get unique on these small slates. You think someone with Beasley on their roster and $2,500 extra in salary isn’t going to upgrade to Diggs? They will, leaving you in a great spot if you stand pat. Remember, you’re not trying to make the best lineup… you’re trying to make the best lineup that has a chance to win you first-place alone.

Good luck!