DFS Building Blocks – Week 4
Sometimes, you eat the bear. And sometimes the bear, well, he eats you.
The bear ate us in Week 4. Despite having Josh Allen in our main roster and hitting 3 to 4x value on Barkley, Mattison, and Najee Harris our pass-catchers failed us. Kyle Pitts disappointed again. Diggs disappointed in a game where Buffalo scored 43 points and Allen threw 4 TDS. That’s just how it goes sometimes. Then Lockett and Woods…
We said play Lockett despite the crowd moving to Metcalf simply because “he was due”. Well apparently, Russell Wilson thought Metcalf was due too, as he raced out to a big score early, almost hitting his 3x value. This was a case where we were ignoring (by not fading) recent performance and rostering the best play, Lockett. The public was counting on short-term regression with the points moving from Lockett to Metcalf. That happened. Right call to play Lockett at lower ownership than Metcalf, just wrong results.
Woods was popular because of his low price, but still less popular than Kupp because of Kupp’s recent performances. This was again, in a vacuum, us deciding Kupp and Woods had an equal shot at a big day. So rather than chasing Kupp we went Woods at a cheaper price. We picked the best play – unless Stafford is really locked on to Kupp as it appears he may be. But very soon Woods is going to have his own Metcalf moment.
So, two similar situations, two different results. We chased the points with Lockett because he was the better play. We didn’t chase the points with Kupp because Woods was the better (or equally good) play. And both were “wrong”. We could have easily been sitting on a pile of cash from having Kupp/Metcalf. But the real point is, we could have just as easily been sitting on a bigger pile of cash from having Woods/Lockett.
Hopefully you found the right pieces. We were considering Ryan, Allen, Stafford, and Brady at QB. Ryan disappointed, which was not completely surprising, but our other three were all in the top four for value.
Barkley was our lock at RB. He hit 3x. We swapped from Williams to Mattison with the Sunday morning update. He was around 4x. And we swapped from Justin Jefferson in the flex to Najee Harris. Harris did fine, but we made that swap because we had the extra salary to pair him with Pitt D. They disappointed.
Our other primary options for D were Arizona and Cleveland, who finished as the top two. Hopefully you landed there! And hopefully paying up at WR forced you into pairing Hunt with Cleveland as he finished as the top value RB of the day.
Before we get into Week 4, I want to introduce a new column on our Player Grid. We now show the amount a player’s salary increased or decreased from the prior week. This is a great way to find players who may have increased or decreased too much based on one performance. We can look at two popular TEs as an example this week.
Travis Kelce dropped $300 on FD. He’s playing in a game with a high total against a team that just let Dalton Schultz get two TDs. Do you think there is some significant change in the odds Kelce puts up a slate-winning score? Probably not. This is a $300 discount.
Kyle Pitts, ugh. He dropped $400 on FD. Now the rookie hype is gone, and his price continues to adjust to his actual performance. So, this is not a $400 discount, but is a move to match his actual long-term (three games) performance. If we’re buying Pitts (we are) it’s because of his usage and potential, not his results. And now his price is dropping to a point where it’s a reasonable bet.
We can find examples each week where a player’s price increased or decreased too much. These are little edges that help us maximize the potential of our lineup. These are the edges the public isn’t thinking about. In fact, it’s usually the opposite… the public uses the player’s price as their main determinant of value, ignoring whether the player is priced “right” or not.
Another example of a situation we’ve talked about in the past is when a player has a boom or bust performance on a primetime game and that performance isn’t reflected in their salary. Perfect example this week is Ezekiel Elliott. He had his best game of the season on Monday night, but his price dropped $800 on FD. Now, this is a situation that the public knows more about, so you can expect Elliott to be reasonably popular at only $7,000 on FD (update: he’s not very popular). So, you won’t be sneaking up on anyone, but you will be taking “best play” based on price. This is a situation where taking the discount and following the crowd is okay.
On to Week 4!
QB
Josh Allen. Ownership could approach 20% which is very high at the QB level. Is it worth it? Yes. Do we get significant leverage by fading him? Not really. The spread between QB pricing is usually narrow enough that ownership doesn’t come in to play much. You can get some leverage by pairing him with Diggs, as the public may return to Sanders or even play Allen alone. Allen is a good example of playing the best play, despite the feeling of “chasing points” like we talked about with Lockett above. My early lineups have Allen + Diggs, but I may need to save some salary, we’ll see.
Patrick Mahomes. Always in play, but I’m more likely to get exposure to this game through Kelce and Hurts/Sanders.
Dak Prescott. A little surprised to see Dak this high, with Zeke priced down and coming off a great game. Carolina also shows as the number one defense, but that could be because of lack of competition so far. I would have expected that to slow people somewhat on Dak and Zeke, but it appears Dak is benefitting from the same primetime scenario we talked about with Zeke. He’s only $500 more than Sam Darnold on FD, after all, so comes across as a pretty good bargain. I’m probably not going here, but not a bad play.
Matthew Stafford. A great option in the most likely top game environment of the week, but I generally think these situations where two fast-paced teams play each other turn into a letdown. Both coaches may have enough fear (respect) for the other offense to not feel the need to press the pace.
Kyler Murray. Always in play and I like him better than Stafford because of his rushing upside, but I’m willing to give the Rams defense a little more respect than most seem to be.
Sam Darnold. In play expecting a lot of volume against the Cowboys, but better options available.
Jalen Hurts. This is probably my non-Allen option. And if I want to fit Kelce in (instead of Pitts, again, sigh) then I may need the savings at QB.
Jacoby Brissett. No thanks. I do like Jonathan Taylor on the other side, so you could stack Brissett banking on garbage time, but I’m more likely to go Taylor + Colts.
Lamar Jackson. Tough matchup and banged up.
Russell Wilson. Good ownership discount, but I’m shying away from this whole game.
Ryan Tannehill. This is interesting because the public will surely be all over Henry and Titans DEF. This would have been a great leverage spot if Brown and Jones were playing. You could throw in a Tannehill stack just with Westbrook-Ikhine and Firkser for a super leverage spot in tournaments, but definitely not in my main lineups.
Cousins / Mayfield / Jones. Three low-owned options that could hit as part of game stacks but won’t be in my main.
RB
Alvin Kamara. Off to a hot start last week, but still missed value. Could be a classic Kamara game any week, but I’ll wait to see it. I said last week that both the Giants and Falcons couldn’t end up 0-3, but the game sure seemed like they both wanted to. This game could be similar. Or it won’t and will be a shootout. Not in my main, but worth a game-stack lineup.
D’Andre Swift. Interesting option, better on DK because of his passing work.
Najee Harris. Good spot for volume again, but we’ll take our Harris gains from last week and skip him this week.
Derrick Henry. Going to be popular this week, but with Brown and Jones out this game just stinks. I’m staying away.
David Montgomery. Good option, but another game that stinks. I’ve done crazier things, but playing anyone from a team that only had 47 total yards last week would be right up there.
Aaron Jones. This one feels like an Adams game, not Jones. But every year we get one of these big Jones games when Adams is super popular. I think we already had it in primetime though.
Chuba Hubbard. Popular, but we’re past the days of getting backup RBs for min-price. He’s $6,300 on FD, only $300 less than Taylor, $700 less than Elliott. He is priced the lowest of all expected starting workhorse RBs, but this still doesn’t feel like a discount to me. I’d rather play the Cowboys D.
Ezekiel Elliott. People get scared when they see that “1st” for Carolina D, but they’ve played the Jets, Saints, and Texans. I ain’t scurred. Taylor + Colts or Elliott + Cowboys will be a big decision point for me this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Probably always underrated, but also probably always best to just stick to the Chiefs passing attack.
Antonio Gibson. Take away one big reception and Gibson has been a bust. And he’s hurt. And… we still might play him, if we end up with Pitts or Ridley. Probably wouldn’t play Gibson alone, and probably wouldn’t force a mini-stack when Elliott is $100 less. But it is a good ownership discount because people will see his Q tag and shy away.
Dalvin Cook. Coming off an injury and he’s expensive. People playing an expensive RB this week are looking at Henry and Kamara so this is a great chance to get Cook at a somewhat disrespectful ownership level. If we’re on Pitts at TE, we’re also on Cook at RB. If we’re on Kelce, we probably can’t get to Cook, but we’ll see.
Jonathan Taylor. Like Gibson, the Q tag could scare people away, but it doesn’t appear so at this point. He’s more popular than we’d like him to be, but we’re still probably headed his way trying to be on the right side of his breakout week this season.
Saquon Barkley. Still cheap for his talent, but this is another stay-away game, outside of a game overstack in a deep lineup.
Mike Davis. No thanks. Not showing too much, and the ghost of Cordarelle Patterson continues to haunt him.
Nick Chubb. He has a big game coming, but O-line is banged up. And Hunt continues to get work. This is a nice spot to go back to Chubb though after Hunt was the best RB on the slate last week. Worth some game stacks here.
Devin Singletary. This is worth a deep tourney shot to get leverage on the Allen rosters, but Moss also seems to be more productive right now.
Only other player of some interest is Eli Mitchell as people will return to Sermon or at least be scared of a timeshare. But, as I always tell myself when the GPS is telling me to detour and I think that can’t possibly be right… it knows. We’ve all been burned by not listening to the GPS. Sometimes we need to listen to coaches. They know. Sermon was way too popular in season-long drafts and then was a healthy scratch in Week 1. We can question a lot of things about coaches, but we need to give them the benefit of the doubt if they’re not playing someone. They know whether they’re ready or not. Mitchell, not Sermon, seems like the play here. Cook and Mitchell is an affordable, high-upside pairing at RB.
WR
Davante Adams. Most popular, most worthy of it (outside of Kupp perhaps). Should continue to get a ton of volume, but this game may not get enough points to really make him pay off – or make you regret paying up for him – but he is priced about as low as you’ll ever see. This is a start your lineup with Diggs or Adams week.
Cooper Kupp. I’m staying away at this price now, when Woods (on paper) is still in an equally good spot and far cheaper.
Stefon Diggs. With or without Allen, I’m locking in Diggs. Sanders got the points last week, but Diggs is due. Not from a feel perspective, but from a missed opportunities perspective. Those opportunities are going to hit one of these weeks. At home against Houston feels like the week.
Amari Cooper. Should get a lot of volume, but perhaps doesn’t have the TD upside we’d want this week.
D.J. Moore. I’m generally staying away from the Panthers side of this game.
CeeDee Lamb. Would rather have Cooper, but I think this is a balanced run/pass game for the Cowboys and no one may get enough work to really pay off.
Cole Beasley. Cheap but this feels like the public trying to get last week’s Sanders game here, rather than just paying up for Diggs. Although, as @FantasyHubbard pointed out in his weekly start/sit article, Beasley is tied with Diggs for 7 red-zone targets. This could be the week those pay off.
Robert Woods. Trying to lock in Woods, but so are a lot of people. I think the overall game goes under, but still enough work to get a couple pieces. I like a Woods + Green/Moore mini-stack.
Tyreek Hill. He can beat anyone, but another relatively tough matchup. This is a Kelce spot.
Calvin Ridley. If not this week, when? Okay option, but I like a lot of other WRs better this week.
Justin Jefferson. Can go off any week, but not a priority for me. This game feels more like a slog, even though it has a high total and is getting some industry attention. Even if it does shootout, you’re only getting him for $300 less than Adams.
Darnell Mooney. Jimmy Fallon voice: Thank you, Justin Fields, for making it easy for me to auto-skip any Chicago Bear.
DK Metcalf. Lockett hurt so Metcalf could get a ton of looks. This is another game that is going a bit under the radar but is also another game where I think both teams are content to try to run. Not sure there is enough points for Metcalf to pay off, even though he only needs a couple big plays.
Terry McLaurin. Seems like he’s being overlooked. I really McLaurin in a stack with Pitts.
Michael Pittman. Has our top tourney rating because of his potential upside, but I see more of a floor game this week. He’s also a great tourney rating because of the focus on Jonathan Taylor though, so it’s worth a Wentz + Pittman + Waddle lineup for leverage. Or even Parker if you want to go way off the board.
Deebo Samuel. Normally we rely on his big plays, but he’s getting a surprising amount of volume too. Not really a target for me this week though.
Brandin Cooks. I have a lot of Cooks in season-long leagues based on the “someone has to catch the ball theory” and he has not disappointed. But I think he disappoints this week against Buffalo D. Who else is White going to cover?
Emmanuel Sanders. This game actually sets up for Sanders to have success in all the same ways last week’s game did. Still, I’m paying up for Diggs at home in a get-right spot.
Brandon Aiyuk. If you want to take a flier on this game, I’d go here rather than Deebo just for the lower ownership.
Courtland Sutton. Not enough time of possession for the Broncos to pay off here. Could always get garbage time, but better options.
Kenny Golladay. Pretty solid low-owned option if you want to risk your money on the Giants versus Saints D. I don’t want to in my main lineup, but with Shepherd and Slayton out this could be a nice volume play in a deeper stack.
Adam Thielen. Seems strange to see ownership this low. Cheaper than Jefferson and less popular. Yes, Jefferson has likely supplanted Thielen as the top option, but we only need to go back to Week 1 to see what happens when you can get an overlooked Thielen… 30 FD points. I’m not going out of my way to target this game, but this is a good place to get exposure to it if you can’t afford Cook.
Jaylen Waddle. Better on DK, but not playing him as I like the Colts D.
Allen Robinson. Nope.
Odell Beckham. This is normally a nope, but if you’re taking one of the Vikings pieces OBJ makes a lot of sense for potential volume and upside (even though it feels like literal years since we’ve seen his upside).
Tyler Lockett. Banged up, would rather play Metcalf.
Corey Davis. Uh, no. Another case of someone has to catch the ball, but it’s just as likely that a Tenn DB catches it.
Chase Claypool. Hurt and may not even play.
DeAndre Hopkins. Should see Jalen Ramsey and we usually overrate the defensive player, not giving enough credit to stud WRs, but still going to pass here. Worth a shot in some lineups simply for the ownership leverage, but there are enough other weapons on ARI now that I’d rather go Green (and hope he continues to come back).
Some other low-owned options.
Diontae Johnson. Forgotten a bit this week coming back from injury, but should see his normal volume, but could also see Alexander a lot. Steelers are just too much of a mess right now. If going here, go with a full game stack telling the story that the Steelers surprise.
Jalen Reagor. Will need to do something for the Eagles to stay competitive this week. Good low-owned pairing with Hurts, although you don’t need to force a correlation with Hurts because of his rushing upside.
Green / Kirk / Moore. I want one of these to pair with Woods. Probably taking Green, but all three are viable and close in salary.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Someone has to catch the ball. I suspect he’ll end up a lot more popular, especially on DK where he’s priced more attractively.
Zaccheus / Cobb / Lazard / Washington. All could benefit from other WRs missing this week.
TE
Travis Kelce. Play him. Find a way. Dalton Schultz scored two TDs last week against this Eagles team that funnels things to the TE. If he busts here, it will be painful, but it will have been by making the 100% correct play. The only real discussion point here is that his price, even after going down, is so much higher than the next guy. There are some much cheaper players worth consideration. I like building two main lineups this week – one with Kelce, one without.
Noah Fant. Solid, but staying away from this game.
George Kittle. Banged up, but huge ceiling if he plays. I’d rather go Kelce or way cheaper though.
Cole Kmet. Knope.
T.J. Hockenson. Definitely could be a get-right spot after disappointing last week, and he does get treated more like a WR, but I’m still likely looking elsewhere. Great in a Montgomery stack though. Or even a nontraditional Swift + Hockenson stack, with or without Goff.
Jack Doyle. In play for the same reasons Pittman is, purely as leverage on the Taylor lineups, but we like Taylor.
Tyler Higbee. Nice way to get exposure here if you want to fade Kupp and Woods.
Mark Andrews. This feels like a good spot for a Mark Andrews two-TD game. Lamar banged up, tougher D. Andrews could be in for a lot of work, I’m just going to have to wait and see though.
Dawson Knox. Solid option if fading Diggs. And a good way to get some differentiation as part of an Allen stack or even an Allen + Diggs + Knox stack.
Logan Thomas. Seems overlooked this year but is performing well and has a nice matchup. I’d rather play Pitts on the other side though.
Dalton Schultz. Not chasing points here. Would rather chase the more predictable Elliott points.
Tyler Conklin. Seems to be involved, but hard to guess when.
Evan Engram. Fool me once… he’s getting the Brandon Marshall treatment from me after too many injury disappointments. It’s sad to see, because he was a volume hog for a while, but I need to see a few good weeks first.
Kyle Pitts. Man, the hype is officially gone now. I really want to go back to Pitts again, because he will (maybe) break out one of these days. He’s being treated like a WR and Gage is out. His price has also dropped to the point of making him a reasonable upside pick. Just know the floor could continue to be terrible.
Mike Gesicki. Not this week.
Zach Ertz. Could throw him in, but I’d rather just play Hurts naked.
Austin Hooper. With Landry out, he’s in play and he’s getting lost in the OBJ hype this week.
DEF
Buffalo Bills. Solid option again. Allen + Bills or even Allen + Diggs + Bills could be a nice way to get leverage on the field.
Atlanta Falcons. This doesn’t make sense to me. This is trying too hard to find a cheap D and is overrating Buffalo’s performance against Washington last week, which wasn’t even that great from a scoring perspective. Stay away from this matchup.
Miami Dolphins. Makes slightly more sense given Wentz’s health, but also a stay-away spot for me.
Tennessee Titans. I would expect this to be the highest owned D. Perhaps the potential lack of offense is scaring some away. Maybe people think the Jets will do something?
Green Bay Packers. Solid upside option given Big Ben’s struggles.
Detroit Lions. Great upside option against the Bears, who don’t have a good QB option right now.
New York Giants. Playing a D against Jameis is always in play, but I’m not going here unless really needed for salary savings.
New York Jets. They should try to focus on stopping Henry, but even without Brown and Jones I’m not willing to play the Jets D.
Seattle Seahawks. I actually like this as a contrarian option, even pairing it with Carson.
Kansas City Chiefs. Makes sense considering what the Cowboys did to the Eagles, but I think, quietly, the Cowboys are a better defense than Kansas City. I’m more likely to bank on Philly points here.
Chicago Bears. I see why on paper. Goff and all. But no.
New Orleans Saints. This makes sense with Jones missing some WRs, but too expensive.
Washington Football Team. If taking a D in this game, it would have to be Washington, but I’m looking for Atlanta to finally get something going this week.
Los Angeles Rams. Popular by reputation and trying to be cute after they somewhat limited Tampa. I do think the game goes under, but I’ll still be targeting a couple offensive pieces.
Dallas Cowboys. This feels good. Super cheap, playing a team that doesn’t have CMC.
Carolina Panthers. Ugh, no. Number one on paper, but I’m still staying away. This will be their first real test and I expect them to fail.
Too low on the list…
Indianapolis Colts. I like this one. I’m probably loading up on Colts or Cowboys this week. There are no real standout defenses, maybe Buffalo, so this is a good week to take a shot on a low-priced option like the Cowboys or a higher-priced option like the Colts who may get lost in the shuffle around Tennessee and Buffalo.
The Lineup Build
Two main lineups this week. One with Kelce, one with Pitts. One with Cook, one with two value RBs.
At this point, I’ve settled into Kelce in my main lineup. I started the week wanting to pair Allen + Diggs, but I’ll drop down to Hurts in a mini-stack with Kelce. Basically asking ourselves what is more likely, Kelce scoring 24.6 or Pitts scoring 17.4. I’d say the answer is clearly Kelce scoring 24.6, but if the cards fall right, Pitts has, in theory, a great chance of getting a higher points-per-dollar result.
I’ll still add Diggs, hoping to catch his big week. Same with Woods. Then I’m either coming back with Green or Moore.
I’m probably locking in Taylor, despite ownership being higher than I want it to be. That leaves me filling out my RBs with Gibson or Elliott. Gibson and Elliot are also in play together at lower combined ownership than what Taylor is by himself. Depending on what I decide here, I’m going either Colts or Cowboys at D to pair with Taylor or Elliott. In this lineup, I’m counting any two of these as value RB options because of their pricing.
Now, at flex, I’m probably going to do something that is a no-no. I might play Pitts along with Kelce. It’s basically never a good idea to play two TEs, but in playing Pitts I’m treating him like Atlanta is treating him… like a WR. His price is reduced enough that he has just as much upside as the WRs who are priced in the same range; players like Devonta Smith, Robby Anderson, and Michael Pittman. All are similar boom or bust options.
In my second lineup, I’m going to go as much stars and scrubs as I can.
I can fit Allen + Diggs + Cook and still get Woods + Moore as an upside pairing. To make this work, I have to take a flier on someone like Mitchell at RB. I can drop to Pitts and actually come back with McLaurin in the flex. Then I just need to find a low-priced flier at D.
If Mitchell and Pitts produce, this lineup has all sorts of potential. Because it’s banking on Mitchell success, you could also come back with Metcalf here if you give up the McLaurin mini-stack in the flex and you drop even further down at D. You could also choose to find salary at QB instead of paying up for Allen. No one wants to play Matt Ryan, but if you’re already banking on Pitts + McLaurin, Ryan would make a lot of sense. Then you open up your second RB spot to a lot of options again.
There are a handful of other stacks I’ve talked about above, but nothing that I’m really prioritizing this week in my other builds. Just look for some high-leverage stacks, like building around Wentz instead of Taylor. Building around Thielen + Hooper. Tannehill + Firkser + Ikhine. And Singletary! Or even Singletary + Moss + Buffalo. And find some game overstacks like Big Ben + Harris + Johnson + Adams. Cousins + Cook + Thielen + Hooper/OBJ. These are like showdown lineups. Pick an unexpected, but reasonable, story and tell it with your lineup.