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NHL Monday Night Showdown 1/25

by Brewery Mark

DraftKings Showdown Captain Mode offers a single game contest with slightly elevated points and a Captain slot, where for a 1.5x salary you receive 1.5x the points.

Showdown strategy is different from normal NHL contests in that you are looking strictly for upside (ceiling). Playing top players and players with a safe floor is not going to win in a showdown.

Let’s take a look at scoring.

Player Scoring

Goal +8.5 Pts
Assist +5 Pts
Shot on Goal +1.5 Pts
Blocked Shot +1.3 Pts
Short Handed Point Bonus (Goal/Assist) +2 Pts
Shootout Goal +1.5 Pts
Hat Trick Bonus +3 Pts
5+ Shots +3 Pts
3+ Blocked Shots +3 Pts
3+ Points +3 Pts

Goalie Scoring

Win +6 Pts
Save +0.7 Pts
Goal Against -3.5 Pts
Shutout Bonus +4 Pts
Overtime Loss +2 Pts
35+ Saves +3 Pts

If we look at potential scoring, based on current average ceilings

A player with 2 goals and 5 shots = 17+7.5+3 = 28.5
A defenseman with 2 assists, 3 blocked shots = 10+3.9+3 = 16.9
A Goalie with 35 saves, 1 goal against, and a win = 24.5+3-3.5+6 = 30

Now let’s look at potential high ceilings:
A player with a hat trick, 5 shots on goal = 25.5+3+7.5+3 = 39
A defenseman with 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 blocked shots = 8.5+10+3.9+3 = 25.4
A goalie with a shutout win and 35 saves = 6+4+24.5+3 = 37.5

Booking at these very simple projections, Showdown builds should focus mainly on Centers and Forwards. Goalies are too expensive and have a very narrow pathway to justify their salary. The league average for saves is currently 27/game. The highest it has been in the last decade is 29 saves/gm. Goals however is trending at its highest point in 10 years at 3.03 goals/gm. Add in assists and playing forwards just makes sense.

The other reason I do not like goalies on a showdown is that I want these games to be shootouts! If the game is a 1-0 defensive battle, I might get 68 points playing the goalies, but if it’s a shootout and I can hit on just 3 of 6 forwards I am already at 90+ points. Let’s say the final score is 4-3, the best goalie in this situation scores only 17 points. Goalies are only valuable if you think one side wins with a shutout, and this is highly unlikely.

I am not saying don’t ever play a defenseman or a goalie, these are both great leverage plays against a large GPP. However, finding that offensive defenseman that has a hat trick or that goalie with a 35+ save shutout is very rare. And DK prices scoring defensemen at a premium. For my money it makes more sense to roster only forwards and centers.

The next step is to find the low priced/low owned forward that has the potential to blow up for a game. Playing Leon Drasaitl against Vancouver might be a sure thing, but everyone will be playing him. And you should too! Chalk is not necessarily bad in a showdown, just do your research and look for that player that could explode along with him. James Neal plays ion the power play with him and he is currently at DK minimum pricing, for example.

I hope this quick take gave you some food for thought. NHL showdowns are not that popular and that means maybe we can win some money with the right strategy.

Cheers,
@brewerymark

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