Chalkboard: DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Quarterbacks
Dak is overwhelmingly the #1 owned QB this week. I’m not mad at it, though, because it’s still only around 14%. The reason is that the DFS world is begging you to play Wentz and Mariota. Don’t get me wrong, a $4k QB can really open up your lineup, but if you do it, make sure you are playing very low-owned plays elsewhere, or you are following the crowd. If you do go for a cheap QB, it’s Mariota way over Wentz. I have Wentz as the 3rd lowest scoring QB on the slate and on a complete fade in hand-built lineups. Murray is my play of the week. He plays well against SF historically, he is my second-highest projected scoring QB, and he is looking at under 4% ownership! 

Top End Pivots:
Murray
Herbert

Mid Range Targets:
Jones
Maye

Tipsy Pick:
Tyrod Taylor

Avoids:
Wentz
Nix
Lawrence

Running Backs
Here we are with cheap chalk again. Dominating ownership this week are Mason and Walker. I tend to avoid cheap, over-owned chalk, and I’ll stick to that for the most part. Walker is almost too good to fade when Charbonnet is out, and is in a spot where he should easily put up 20 points. I’m cool on Mason, as I just don’t know if he has stud talent to begin with. CMC is a lock all weeks, regardless of ownership. Bijan coming in at the 4th or 5th highest owned guy is criminal and I want every share I can get. The depth of good options this week should allow you to play a wide variety of guys in good spots.

Top End Pivots:
Barkley
Taylor
Bucky

Mid Range Targets:
Kamara
Javonte

Bargain Shots:
Chubb
Warren

Tipsy Pick:
Kyren Williams
Judkins

Wide Receivers
Some odd chalk at wideout today. Jauan Jennings is currently coming up as the highest owned. I would rather have Pearsall, who destroys man coverage all day. JSN and Rome are the other guys looking at +20% ownership. I am in on both, but think you can pivot to DJ Moore, though I am way more cautious with that than others. Lamb, Puka, both deserve the chalk, but easy pivots are right there at a quarter of the ownership in Chase and Collins. This may be one of your only shots to get Jefferson in lineups at single digit ownership.

Top End Pivots:
Chase
Collings

Mid Range Targets:
Adams
Meyers
London

Value Plays:
Allen
Franklin

Tipsy:
Shaheed
Mooney

Tight Ends
Chalk seems to be only McBride and Warren. You can always pivot to Bowers from McBride, but going from 13% owned to a guy projected at 4% owned with nearly identical stats is the cornerstone of Pivot Theory. I can’t believe Juwan stays at 1% as the projections have him now, but I have him locked in every lineup. I can take a flyer on either Cleveland tight end and continue to be the only voice on our site confident in Kyle Pitts. I want any angle I can get of the Dallas offense  and going to Ferguson is a great way to pivot off the chalk in that game

Top End Pivots:
Bowers

Mid Range Targets:
Juwan Johnson (LOCK)
Ferguson
Njoku
Fannin
Ertz

Values:
Pitts
Musgrave

Tipsy:
Mason Taylor