Chalkboard: DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Quarterbacks
Chalk looks like Jackson, Burrow, Allen, and Murray. All solid plays, but if you want to avoid what sometimes is a tough divisional matchup in Cleveland, and fade Burrow until they lock in their offense better, you can move right over to Hurts in the same range in another matchup that should feature a solid performance from his legs. Last week showed mobile QBs can have upside unmatched by other options. Jones and Fields crushed last week and can’t be discounted in good matchups. Drake Maye is my guy this week to perform at a low ownership. I believe in Mac Jones as a solid backup. His ceiling feels low, but with a bare bottom $4000 salary and being avoided with all the injury concerns in SF, it feels like a classic Tipsy Pick.

Top End Pivots:
Hurts

Mid Range Targets:
Lawrence
Maye
Rodgers

Tipsy Pick:
Mac Jones

Avoids:
Burrow
Daniel Jones
Nix
Flacco

Running Backs
CMC showed he could handle the work last week, with the coaching staff giving him breathers with Brian Robinson Jr. You know every week he is the chalk, and every week I’m in. Achane, Williams, Gibbs, Henry, and Brown are all highly owned, and I have a hard time talking you out of them. On the opposite end of CMC, we have Barkley at a few bucks more, with just a slightly lower projected score but 3x lower ownership. Hurts does steal TDs, but he can also go off as well as anyone else, making him a better option than similar players in terms of ownership. RBs are deep this week, mix it up and be unique. Find guys with limited splits in a good situation.

Top End Pivots:
Barkley
Kamara

Mid Range Targets:
Swift
Etienne
Pollard
Pacheco

Bargain Shots:
Henderson
Warren

Tipsy Pick:
Tracy

Wide Receivers
Chase and Higgins will keep being chalk, and I am out this week until I see it. Lamb, Puka, Hollywood, Flowers, round out the rest of the chalk this week. Honorable mentions to St Brown and BTJ. I’m still out in Detroit until they find a groove, with the rest of the chalk just kind of avoidable. You should be able to differentiate well this week.

Top End Pivots:
Lamb (least owned of the high chalk)
Nabers

Mid Range Targets:
McMillan
Wilson
Metcalf

Value Plays:
Ridley
Hunter
Jeudy

Tipsy:
Olave

Tight Ends
I am back in on some places I was last week. Chalk on Kelce seems misplaced, so I am avoiding. LaPorta seems like a reactionary play that people are thinking Detroit bounces back, but I feel losing Ben Johnson is a bigger problem than people wanna admit.

Top End Pivots:
Andrews
Njoku

Mid Range Targets:
Engram
Henry

Values:
Tonges
Calceterra
Chig
Fannin