NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 10

Welcome to Week 10’s DFS preview! With the return of early-morning football (the Panthers and Giants face off in Munich this week) and four teams on bye, we have a relatively small 10-game slate this week. Let’s get right into it!

Game Overviews

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

Projected Totals: Patriots 16.5, Bears 22.5

We get a battle of rookie quarterbacks in this one, as the first overall pick and third overall pick from this year’s NFL Draft face-off. Caleb Williams certainly has the edge in terms of team strength, but Drake Maye has undeniably been the better fantasy option so far. 

Quarterbacks

I think Drake Maye’s rushing ability is underpriced by his salaries this week — he is averaging over 50 rushing yards per full game, second among QBs to only Lamar Jackson at 56. With that said, this is a very tough matchup, as the Bears are the worst schedule-adjusted opponent for fantasy QBs. Maye is best deployed as a high-risk, low-rostership tournament play. Caleb Williams has the much better matchup, but he doesn’t bring the rushing upside that Maye does. He’s also more of a tournament play than anything else this week. 

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson is dominating the Patriots’ backfield and coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at a relatively cheap price. However, he has struggled to get much going either through the air or on the ground, with the majority of his points over those two weeks coming thanks to four total TDs. He’s just an okay, TD-reliant play against a tough Bears defense. D’Andre Swift is slightly more expensive than Rhamondre, but he does have the much better matchup. I’m still slightly skeptical of his efficiency, but you can’t argue with his recent workload and results. 

Wide Receivers

It’s hard to want to start any of the Patriots’ WRs, as the Bears are the worst fantasy matchup in the league for the position. Demario Douglas is cheap and probably the most appealing option, but Chicago is particularly tough against slot receivers. Kayshon Boutte is even cheaper and consistently paces the team in routes, but he has yet to have more than three catches in a game this season. They’re both risky value options. Things are just as ugly on the Bears’ side, as Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore are cannibalizing one another’s value. The Patriots’ defense is beatable enough through the air that I wouldn’t be surprised if one or more of them had a good game, but I can’t tell you which one that will be. DJM is the “safest” but hasn’t actually done much of anything this season, while Odunze is appealing as the cheapest of the trio but consistently runs the least routes of the three. Allen is like Goldilocks, if Goldilocks were a risky high-upside low-floor DFS receiver. 

Tight Ends

Especially on DraftKings, Hunter Henry is too cheap for how he has been producing with Maye. That makes him a pay-down option even in a bad matchup. I’m not touching Cole Kmet, who is often the odd man out in this crowded offense.

Defenses

Both of these defenses are in play. The Bears’ defense will be hugely popular, with good reason, on DK, where they are much cheaper than on the other two sites. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defense looks likely to be a popular pay-down option this week, as they are cheap and could take advantage of a Chicago offense that is second in the league in sacks.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Totals: Broncos 16.5, Chiefs 25.5

Here’s the issue with this game. The Chiefs’ offense so far this season has done exactly enough to win every week. They are 9-0 with only two wins by more than one score. In a game against a Broncos team that has struggled to move the ball consistently, we may be in for a hefty dose of four-yard runs from Kareem Hunt.

Quarterbacks

There’s no way I’m playing Patrick Mahomes at top-six prices on DK and FD, and even his reduced Yahoo pricetag feels a bit steep. Mahomes has just one real boom outing all season, and both the matchup and the game script are very against him in this one. I made some money (hopefully you did too!) playing Bo Nix last week, but I’m not going back to the well here. His price has risen, and this Chiefs defense is not as beatable as Baltimore’s … which he didn’t exactly dominate, anyway.  

Running Backs

I mentioned in the intro that we may be in for a lot of Kareem Hunt this week, and I stand by it. He’s a good play for both cash and tournaments (although he’s a tad expensive on FD), with perhaps the best shot at two TDs of anyone on this slate. I’m not touching Javonte Williams with a ten-foot pole against a Chiefs defense that is allowing just 50.9 yards per game to opposing RBs and is almost twice as bad as the next-worst schedule-adjusted matchup at the position. 

Wide Receivers

I feel the same about Courtland Sutton as I do about Nix. I thank him for his service last week, but this isn’t the week for him against Kanas City’s defense. He’s cheap enough and seeing enough volume to not be completely off the table (garbage time points are still points), but it’s a risky spot. For the Chiefs, DeAndre Hopkins is a very difficult player to project. He obviously dominated last week, but he still only posted a 62% route participation rate. If he keeps earning targets and that number goes up, he’s an obvious smash priced outside the top 24 WRs. But Denver’s defense is one of the toughest matchups for WRs, and I’ve already been over how this game script likely won’t be ideal for KC’s passing offense. If the Chiefs plan on only using the 32-year-old as necessary, this probably won’t be a big game for him. He’s too cheap not to use some places, but don’t go overboard. I’m not touching any WRs other than those two in this matchup.   

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce might just be fully back, with huge outings in each of the last two weeks. He’s priced up but could pay off … once again, the biggest potential issue is game script limiting his usage. Denver has no fantasy-relevant TEs (although if you want to throw a dart for some weird reason, it’s worth noting that Adam Trautman saw more routes than Lucas Krull last week). 

Defenses

The Chiefs’ defense is an option, especially on Yahoo and FD. The Broncos’ defense is very good and cheap enough on DK to make me think twice … but I still don’t think I can pull the trigger against Mahomes and Co. 

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Projected Totals: Falcons 25.5, Saints 21.5

The Saints are massively banged up and may have finally begun a rebuilding phase by trading Marshon Lattimore prior to the deadline. For the Falcons, Kyle Pitts was limited in practice this week and Drake London is listed as questionable, but they both reportedly should be good to go.  

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr is cheap, but it’s hard to want to play him without his top two receivers. Kirk Cousins is a bit more appealing, but he’s weirdly expensive for a non-elite pure pocket passer (except on FD). 

Running Backs

This is a great spot for Bijan Robinson against a Saints team that allows the fourth-most EPA per carry. He will be popular, but I don’t hate eating that chalk. Alvin Kamara should see a massive target share with all of New Orleans’ injuries, but we have to be worried about his efficiency. Of these two similarly-priced RBs, I would rather play Bijan. 

Wide Receivers

Mason Tipton should be the Saints’ top WR with Chris Olave officially out. I don’t hate playing him as a punt play on DK or Yahoo at relatively low rostership. For the Falcons, Drake London is definitely an option, although make sure he is active with that hip issue. Darnell Mooney isn’t much cheaper than his teammate and has slipped firmly behind him in usage after starting the season fairly even, so he’s more of a tournament pivot play than anything else. 

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts is coming off an absolute dud game in which his route participation wasn’t very encouraging. He’s shown that he’s capable of a big game, but I’m avoiding him this week. Even with all their injuries at pass-catcher, the only Saints TE I’m really considering is Taysom Hill. He’s cheap enough and saw solid enough usage last week to be an option, although you never know what you’re going to get with his role.  

Defenses

Except on Yahoo, where they’re very cheap, I’m not playing the Falcons’ defense even in a good matchup. I’m not playing the Saints’ defense anywhere. 

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

Projected Totals: Bills 26.5, Colts 21.5

The Colts benched Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco last week and proceeded to score just six offensive points on Sunday Night Football. The Bills are dealing with a rash of wrist injuries at receiver but have scored 30+ points in three straight weeks. 

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen is hot and facing a very beatable Colts defense. However, he is also expensive and will be widely rostered. He’s certainly an option, but it’s not the worst idea to fade him, either. He hasn’t quite been his usual truly dominant fantasy self so far this season. If Joe Flacco were cheaper, I’d be tempted to take a shot on him at low rostership coming off a very rough outing … but he’s not. 

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor is an elite RB, and the Bills have been a good matchup for RBs so far this season. It’s worth noting that Buffalo is actually a below-average matchup for rushing RB production, they just hemorraghe RBs through the air to opposing backs. Luckily, JT is involved in the receiving game, so he can take advantage. There is some risk that the Colts’ offense holds Taylor back again this week, but he should see enough volume to have at least a decent outing. For the Bills, only James Cook is really an option despite Ray Davis’ big game last week (Davis played just eight snaps). For his part, Cook is a solid option at a not-quite-elite price point.  

Wide Receivers

Keon Coleman is out for the Bills this week with a wrist injury, while Amari Cooper is questionable. If he’s in, Cooper is a tempting play (especially on DK) as he should see extra snaps in Coleman’s absence. If they are both out, Khalil Shakir gets a big boost as the last man standing in this WR room. Otherwise, I’m fading him at a not-too-cheap price and high rostership — the return of Curtis Samuel has really cut into his route share. Speaking of Samuel, both he and Mack Hollins have a bit of intrigue as complete punt options if Cooper joins Coleman on the sidelines. For the Colts, Michael Pittman Jr. is out this week. That means Adonai Mitchell should step into an every-down role alongside Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. I like Downs for a bounceback this week against a Bills team that gives up points in the slot, and Mitchell is an intriguing deep option as well.  

Tight Ends

I’m a firm Dalton Kincaid doubter, but he is undeniably in play if both Cooper and Coleman are out. The Colts don’t have any TEs worth playing. 

Defenses

They are cheap on FD, but I still can’t get behind the Colts’ defense this week. The Bills’ defense is a bit more interesting, but they’re expensive in what is just an okay matchup. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Totals: Vikings 25.5, Jaguars 17.5

Things are going from bad to worse for the Jaguars. With Christian Kirk done for the year and Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis both banged up, Trevor Lawrence is suddenly very questionable for this week, if not more, with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, the Vikings have slowed down slightly but are still playing well on both sides of the ball. 

Quarterbacks

It looks as though we will see Mac Jones for the Jaguars this week. The former Patriot is dirt cheap for a starting QB, but I’m not playing him against a Brian Flores defense. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has been inconsistent but is due for a good game against a terrible Jaguars secondary. I like him as an option in both cash and tournament formats.  

Running Backs

Aaron Jones did lose a bit more work than we are used to last week (to Cam Akers, not Ty Chandler), but he is definitely in play in what should be an excellent game script. It’s hard to want to play either Tank Bigsby or Travis Etienne, as they will be splitting work on what will likely be a very inefficient offense. 

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson is the most expensive WR on all sites, but he’s worth paying up for if you can afford it. This Jaguars secondary is bad enough that Jordan Addison is also an option, although his volume hasn’t been great this season. We don’t yet know if Brian Thomas Jr. and/or Gabe Davis will be active, although the former seems more likely to play than the latter. Regardless, I don’t really want to play either with Joens under center. If they’re both out, Parker Washington becomes a punt play option.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram saw great usage last week, but he also becomes a lot less appealing without T-Law. T.J. Hockenson could be a smash if he returns to a full-time role in his second game back, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings continue easing him in in what should be an easy win.

Defenses

I usually avoid expensive defenses, but I’m very tempted to pay up for the Vikings’ defense against Jones. The Jaguars’ defense actually projects to be highly rostered as a cheap option, but I don’t want any part of that. They’re terrible and Minnesota’s offense is good enough to take advantage. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Totals: 49ers 28.5, Buccaneers 22.5

We will (hopefully) see the return of Christian McCaffrey this week, although who knows what his workload will be like. Both of these teams also have at least one big lingering questionable tag in their WR rooms as well.

Quarterbacks

I love Brock Purdy this week against a super weak Tampa Bay secondary with all of his weapons (minus Brandon Aiyuk) healthy. He will be popular, but I’m happy to eat the chalk. Baker Mayfield has been surprisingly effective without his top two WRs, but it’s still hard to want to play him (at still high prices) without them.

Running Backs

Tampa Bay’s backfield is an absolute mess, with Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker all seeing work. When you have three relevant RBs, you don’t have any, and I’m avoiding all three (although Bucky and White are both just cheap enough to be a little tempting given their explosiveness and receiving work, respectively). Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is back. If he sees his usual workload, you could argue he’s underpriced by not being the RB1 on all three sites. However, his projected rostership is massive, and the 49ers could ease him in. It could backfire, but my lean is to fade CMC in his first game back.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel is listed as questionable but looking likely to play, and I love him this week. His splits without Brandon Aiyuk over the last few years have been monstrous, and this is a good matchup. I also like Jauan Jennings (if active), who has excellent per-route numbers this season and should be the 49ers’ WR2. If Jennings is out, first-round rookie Ricky Pearsall is suddenly a very appealing play. For the Buccaneers, Jalen McMillan is questionable. If he’s in, he’s a tempting value option on Yahoo and DK. Sterling Shepard is also a value option, and even Rakim Jarrett is in play if McMillan is out.   

Tight Ends

George Kittle is always an option. With the Buccaneers’ top two WRs out, so is Cade Otton.

Defenses

the 49ers’ defense is intriguing as Baker has played well but mixed in sacks and turnover-worthy plays, but they’re a bit expensive. The Buccaneers’ defense is not in play.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders

Projected Totals: Steelers 21.5, Commanders 23.5

The Steelers have beaten up on New York teams in back-to-back games since benching Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. Russ has been absolutely cooking, but he will likely come back to Earth at some point. Meanwhile, the Commanders are clearly gearing up for a run behind their rookie quarterback by trading for Marson Lattimore at the deadline. 

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat ability means he is always a valid pay-up option. However, this isn’t an ideal matchup, as the Steelers will bring a slow-paced offense and a tough defense with them to Washington. Russell Wilson isn’t as cheap as he would have to be to tempt me against a sneakily tough Commanders defense.   

Running Backs

Brian Robinson is out for the Commanders, meaning we are likely in for another week of chalk Austin Ekeler. With that said, this is a much tougher matchup than the Giants last week, meaning Ekeler isn’t as much of a smash as he may seem coming off last week’s big game. Najee Harris is cheap compared to his recent results, but this Washington defense is tough. Jaylen Warren isn’t involved enough at this point to really be an option.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens clearly has a great connection with Russell Wilson, and he is absolutely an option this week despite a surprisingly tough matchup. Terry McLaurin is another player we can play despite a tough matchup, although he is a bit expensive for my liking. I’d actually rather play Noah Brown, who has established himself as the Commanders’ WR2 and is very cheap.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz’s usage is trending in the wrong direction, and I find it hard to play him if we can’t count on a solid floor. Pat Freiermuth also isn’t involved enough in the Steelers’ offense to be more than a TD dart throw.

Defenses

The Steelers’ defense is good, but not a great play here. However, the Commanders’ defense is cheap enough on Yahoo and FD to be tempting. If this is the week that Russ comes back down to Earth, they could have a big day. 

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Projected Totals: Titans 15.5, Chargers 23.5

Both of these teams have made important changes to their offensive philosophy in recent weeks. The Chargers have gone from arguably the most run-heavy team in the league to slightly pass-happy, while the Titans have switched from a WR-by-committee approach to simply rolling out Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on every play. This game also has the largest spread on the slate, which always makes things interesting. 

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert is disrespectfully cheap on DK and also fairly low on FD. Given that the Chargers have turned into a positive pass rate vs. expected team over the last few weeks, he is absolutely in play. The biggest potential issue is that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman may be tempted by the siren song of the run game as big favorites against a tough Titans pass defense. Will Levis is very cheap, but it’s very hard to trust him against a lockdown Chargers defense.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard is healthy for the Titans, but so is Tyjae Spears. I think Spears will cut into Pollard’s workload enough to make him not a play against a tough defense. I’m even almost tempted to throw Spears in as the passing-down back in a game where the Titans should be trailing, but that’s probably getting too cute for my own good. This is an interesting matchup for J.K. Dobbins, as he should have a great game script but the Titans are actually a pretty tough matchup in terms of rushing efficiency allowed. Playing Dobbins is probably a bet that he scores a touchdown or two … which he certainly could. 

Wide Receivers

I wish this matchup were better for the Chargers’ WRs, as I do want to play Ladd McConkey and/or Quentin Johnston to take advantage of LA’s pass-heavy gameplan of late. McConkey (except on Yahoo) is still an okay option. I also wish the Titans had a better matchup (and weren’t starting Levis). With their recent elite usage, I desperately want to play both Calvin Ridley (as a mid-tier option) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (as a value). I probably still will, but they come with risk that this Tennessee offense completely implodes.

Tight Ends

Will Dissly has been involved enough in the Chargers’ offense of late to merit a mention but still doesn’t have good enough usage to be more than a dart throw punt play. The same applies to Chigoziem Okonkwo on the other side.

Defenses

They’re expensive, but the Chargers’ defense against turnover machine Will Levis are a great play if you can afford them. The Titans’ defense is talented and cheap enough to be tempting, but I still don’t love their spot. 

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals

Projected Totals: Jets 23.5, Cardinals 22.5

After a slow start to their Thursday Night Football matchup with the Texans, the Jets turned it on in the second half. Meanwhile, the Cardinals ran all over the Bears in a surprisingly easy win. With two very inconsistent teams, it’s very tough to know how this matchup will play out.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray is always a threat to have a huge game thanks to his legs, and he isn’t too expensive on DK or FD. However, the Jets’ defense is tough against the pass and he’s had a few floor outings this season as well (including last week). He’s is a high-risk/high-reward option. Aaron Rodgers also isn’t too expensive, but it’s tricky to find a reason to play him. He’s not exactly a high-floor cash game play, and he has yet to show much of a ceiling so far this season. Unless you’re sending a full Jets stack, I wouldn’t play him.

Running Backs

James Conner had a solid day last week that could have been much bigger if he wasn’t vultured twice at the goal line (including once by a tight end). The Jets are more susceptible to the run than the pass, so he’s definitely in play at mid-range prices. Breece Hall is coming off back-to-back duds and is still yet to really have a blowup game this season. It’s tempting to chase that blowup in this decent matchup, but I’m starting to get sick of seeing his face in my lineups, and his price hasn’t exactly come down much.

Wide Receivers

Someone whose price has come down is Marvin Harrison Jr., now outside the top 12 most expensive WRs on all sites. That price makes him an option, but his floor is low enough that I like him more in tournaments than cash. For the Jets, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson might combine for at least a 50% target share in every game for the rest of the season. They both project to be pretty heavily rostered but could absolutely pay off against a beatable Cardinals secondary.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin has fallen by the wayside in the Jets’ offense and isn’t too appealing. Trey McBride is a pay-up option every time he’s on a slate, as he brings a very rare combination of ceiling and floor for the TE position.

Defenses

The Jets’ defense is priced up on FanDuel, but otherwise not a terrible option. The Cardinals’ defense isn’t particularly appealing, even coming off a dominant game against the Bears.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected Totals: Eagles 25.5, Cowboys 17.5

Both of these teams dodged at least one bullet last week, as A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb are both reportedly on track to play on Sunday. Unfortunately, Dallas didn’t make it out of Week 9 unscathed, as Dak Prescott is out for the foreseeable future with a hamstring injury. Losing Dak will make an already struggling offense even worse, although Cooper Rush is at least an above-average backup.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts is the top-priced QB on all three sites, but he could be worth it against a shockingly bad Dallas defense. Cooper Rush is cheap but there’s no real reason to want him in your lineup. 

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley joins his QB as the top-priced option at his position, and he could also absolutely be worth it. Rico Dowdle took advantage of Ezekiel Elliott being suspended last week, but the veteran will reportedly be available for the Cowboys this week. Until we see Rico play a clear RB1 role with Zeke active, I’m avoiding this backfield. 

Wide Receivers

I was hoping to be able to recommend CeeDee Lamb as a low-rostered, high-upside play, but he still projects to be on plenty of teams. With that in mind, I can’t justify playing him at WR2 overall prices with a backup QB and an injured shoulder. I also don’t want to play Jalen Tolbert. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, on the other hand, are absolutely options this week, although Smith’s price is a bit high for my liking given that AJB is active. 

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert is back, but I don’t want to play him, as his volume is very hit-or-miss with everyone healthy for Philadelphia. Jake Ferguson is also not super appealing with Rush under center.

Defenses

As much as I’ve been hating on Rush, he is a competent backup. I’m fading the expensive Eagles’ defense (except on Yahoo) given high rostership. I’m also not playing the Cowboys’ defense. 

Lineups

DraftKings

Cash Game

I want to heavily attack the SF/TB game, with a Purdy + Deebo stack going one way and Shepard coming back the other way. Then, assuming Cooper is out and knowing that Pittman is out, let’s get Kincaid in as a value TE option and Downs as a volume WR. Ekeler makes sense with Robinson out, them I’m going to bite the bullet and play Ridley even with Levis under center. That just leaves defense and RB2, where there are plenty of ways to finish things off.

Tournament

I’m going to start things off with two super-cheap receivers who should be running plenty of routes: Adonai Mitchell and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. That allows us to pay up at the third WR spot for the one and only Justin Jefferson, whom I am actually going to stack with his quarterback, Darnold. I’m also going to stick in a fourth WR in Hopkins, who showed last week he can have huge games in his new home. We can save a huge chunk of money with a couple of Patriots in Hunter Henry and the New England defense, allowing us to pay up for two more absolute studs at RB. 

FanDuel

Cash Game

I’m going to start with Kyler Murray, then go back to the well with Calvin Ridley, who is cheapest on FD. Shakir also stands out as being slightly cheaper here than on the other two sites, as does George Pickens. Of course, we’ll need some good RBs in this Half-PPR format, and I’m going to go with Najee and Breece. Even after we add in the Chiefs’ defense, there is plenty of cash left for the mid-range TE of your choice and a solid flex play.

Tournament

I’m going to start things weird with a Drake Maye/Hunter Henry stack, assuming the Patriots are playing catch-up after D’Andre Swift scores a couple touchdowns. Picking a cheap core stack means we can slam in some pay-up options: Bijan and Jefferson. I’m also going to go back to Ridley (for the last time, I promise) and hope that Jauan suits up for the 49ers. If we’re willing to risk it with the Commanders’ defense, we have the cash left for a very solid flex option. 

Yahoo

Cash Game

Darnold is too cheap in a dream matchup, so let’s start with him. I know I said that Marvin Harrison was more of a tournament, play, but he’s also just too cheap. Here is also where I’ll finally eat the CMC chalk, pairing him with another chalky RB in Kareem Hunt. I’m going back to the Patriots’ defense at minimum price, along with Kincaid at just $16. Ekeler at flex leaves plenty of ways to finish things off with the final two WR spots. 

Tournament

I’m going to get in Tipton as the Saints’ WR1 at the minimum price, plus pick one of the Tampa Bay receivers. Let’s do a stack of Allen and Kincaid, with Downs coming back the other way. I’m also going to pay all the way up for Saquon at $40, hoping he delivers a gotta-have-it game in a dream matchup. Let’s also pair up the Chargers’ defense with J.K. Dobbins in what could be an ugly game with a couple of turnovers. That just leaves an empty flex spot, where we will have to pay down, but there are options.