The Chalk Board | DFS Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

See where I get my simulated ownership and projections from. Follow this link: https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

Quarterbacks
DraftKings – Purdy leads all ownership on my simulator, I don’t mind him anyway in a divisional matchup that I think could get out of hand in scoring. After Purdy we see Daniels, Love, and Jackson taking double digit ownership all with good reason and I can’t blame you for going there, but this is a pivot article, right? What if I said you can get away from Purdy ownership just by going to Kyler Murray in the same game? The 49ers, besides against the Patriots, have given up 90 yards and a TD to the top receiver on opposing teams and struggled hard against defending the Running Back dump offs. I can see Kyler/Conner/Harrison getting there. I also like either QB that might play for the Colts but LOVE Flacco if it ends up being him. Need to pay way down? Watson was very close to paying off my tipsy pick last week with some huge scoring plays nullified by penalties, load him up again.

Fanduel – Purdy and Lamar are far and away the heaviest owned making a play on any of my favorites this week a valid pivot. Pivoting up to Allen if you can fit it, or value plays in Geno or Lawrence make a lot of sense.

Running Backs
DraftKings – Mason leads the way again with Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, and the budget free square of Tyrone Tracy rounding out guys that could see 20% ownership. I’m not out on Tracy, but I really think Seattle waxes the Giants and it’s going to an absolute throw fest from Daniel Jones. The other three are good chalk in my book, play freely. Injury concerns will keep ownership low on Brian Robinson Jr., if he plays I like it. My value play of the week is Jerome Ford in maybe his last chance to shine before Chubb gets back. A ton of news rumors about Stevenson losing touches to Gibson, but they were just in a terrible matchup against the Niners last week and Miami is a perfect place to right the ship for Rhamondre. Pivoting up to Achane if you can stomach it might get you a stud talent at under 1% owned. Mattison is interesting as well as Swift to get below 6k and avoid Tracy.

Fanduel – Mason, Williams, and Walker are looking like over 30% owned. I’ll pay up to keep on the Henry train or go value with Ford and Hubbard. Achane might be even less owned on FD and Alexander Mattison makes an appearance with no Zamir.

Wide Receivers
DraftKings – Everyone on the planet seems to be locking in Deebo and Reed. That’s fine, I like both plays as good chalk, but in true pivot fashion let’s look to pay up for Chase at a third of their ownership or stay in the 6k range with Diggs and Cooper who both project as top 10 scoring plays at under 5% ownership. As mentioned above SF has been letting a WR get 90 and a TD every week (besides Patriots) and Harrison might go completely overlooked. Metcalf is getting too much attention from the industry and I thought last week we would see JSN break out but maybe we were a week early. Chalk is loving Whittington, just click Tutu instead and get a third of the ownership with identical projections. Liking Curtis Samuel with no Shakir, fine with Tre Tucker again, out on Legette now that he’s over 5k in price.

Fanduel – Pure ownership pivots make Jakobi Myers, paying up for Tyreek Hill or Ja’Marr Chase solid plays. Give me some Tee Higgins and Diggs for value over higher owned guys and look at IND wide outs if Flacco is named starter.

Tight Ends
DraftKings – Bowers or McBride make a ton sense with everyone going with value to mostly Kraft as well as Parkinson and Ertz. I alway like pivoting up when value becomes to chalky. Engram if he returns is in my crosshairs on a team I’m already interested in this week.

Fanduel – I hate Fanduel pricing this week at TE, so I will take whatever chalk I can afford after I build the rest of my lineup and it will probably mostly be Ertz.

Defense
No Levis to attack this week, again… I am almost fully locked in on the Broncos facing the Raiders without Adams or Zamir White. Shout out to Patriots and Bills as viable under $3k as well.