The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownerships say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Quarterbacks
DK – Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson lead ownership, I like both those games but I think you can gain the same point outcome and fade ownership and pricing by again rolling with the current #1 and #2 fantasy QB’s in Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield. Until price catches up with Carr and ownership catches up with Baker I can start most matchups there. I am back in on Darnold to JJ all day and call it tipsy but I believe that Malik WIllis can get it done against TEN.Hurts is fine in a great game opportunity but for his price just go up to Lamar. I am out on Purdy and Goff on the Road

FD – Not a whole lot changes here but you get to have Mahomes in consideration with the late game included and they are practically BEGGING you to play Justin Fields. (hint: do it)

Running Backs
DK – A straight log jam at the top with 3 players looking over 30% owned. Jordan Mason, Cam Aker, Zach Charbonnet and Kamara right below them. I’m completely out on Akers with his ball control and pass blocking issues of the past. I like both Zach and Jordan fine as well as Kamara but I can’t play any two of them. My gut says trust Kamara the most but I do think Mason will be leaned on without 4 of the top 5 weapons suiting up for SF against a Rams team that is struggling to contain. If you want to fade ownership with top tier scoring potential suit up Saquan Barkley on your squad coming in at 5%. I’ll fade popular value plays in Zamir and Rashaad White and give me a a very underowned Devin Singletary instead as well as riding JK Dobbins until his literal wheels (knees) fall off.

FD – Bijan Gets added to the pivot UP formula in a matchup they will need him in. Dobbins all in again and Aaron Jones stands out for value and being overlooked.

Wide Receivers
DK – Another fade up situation when you have Jefferson and Lamb both at around 5% owned. Aiyuk is leading ownership but unlike good chalk in Mason, I think Aiyuk is a trap. No Kittle gives even more focus from the D onto Aiyuk. I can’t pull that trigger but as a fan I hope I’m wrong. Olave and Shaheed are top 5 chalk plays too but I am very ok with either or even both. I fully expect Shaheed to outscore Olave again at a grand cheaper in the last contest for awhile that he could be less than $6k. Marvin Harrison Jr looks like an ownership pivot but at 7400 with only one quarter of good football so far is just too much. I like a flyer in Dortch out of the slot. Godwin is likely good chalk again and still cheaper than Evans. I like deeper value pivots in either Ladd McConkey or Quentin Johnston, and if Thielen is gonna have a week this is his chance.

FD – Much the same list here but I think we get a vintage Davonte Adams week with a hot at 2 TDs.

Tight Ends
DK – Jake Ferguson leads projected ownership and I am ok with that. Good price and matchup and game script with a tight target tree. Bowers and McBride come in next and again good chalk. Bowers will be an elite TE sooner than later and McBride might single handedly beat the Lions. If you want pivots from the chalk I can get on board with Goedert without a second thought and the models have Pat Freiermuth poppin. Punt play to Tommy Tremble or Hayden Hurst if you need the salary relief. Dalton Schultz interests me without Jordan stealing routes. 

FD – All the same from above.

Defenses
Play whoever gets matched up with Will Levis every week until they bench him or he punishes you for it. The End.