Chalk Board | Ownership Pivots
Looking at the final week through the lens of projected ownership and finding spots to pivot. Keep in mind week 18 is very volatile, players might not play the whole game, substitutions happen rapidly in games that aren’t meaningful and ownership projections are especially erratic.
Quarterbacks
Ownership is fairly spread out. The top 4 are barely above 10% projected rostered. I honestly think most will head towards Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott as they are each playing for the division and have weak opponents. Nick Mullens leads at the moment and at a $3k saving I get it. He dropped 411 yards on this same Detroit team just 2 weeks ago. If he finds a way to NOT throw 4 pics he is set up for a good showing. There are a lot of options at 6k or less that make sense in a week like this so I am more than likely going with value.
DK Pivots
Jordan Love ($6600) coming in under 6% with a top 5 projection.
Trevor Lawrence ($6800) a really good matchup in a must win
Geno Smith ($6100) slightly higher owned at 8% but in a game being largely ignored that I like to go over
Jared Goff ($6700) top 10 projection under 3% ownership, but makes me very nervous… I think he won’t play the whole game.. but I’m in the minority
Tyrod Taylor ($5300) basically predicted to have the same game as Nick Mullens at 25% of ownership
FanDuel pivots read exactly the same
Running Backs
The field is completely loaded on Jordan Mason, and I just can’t play a 3rd string RB at 39% or more owned. No one else is cracking 20% in projected ownership so the field feels wide open again. I’m in on chalk for Zamir White and Kenneth Walker. I’m out on Ronnie Rivers and Breece Hall. Aaron Jones ownership is rising and I think I like that chalk.
DK Pivots
Zeke Elliot ($5900)
Rachaad White ($7600)
Travis Etienne ($7300)
James Conner ($6100)
Alvin Kamara ($7500)
Joe Mixon ($6300)
FanDuel Pivots *Aaron Jones and Kenneth Walker jump up with Mason as over owned
David Montgomery ($8000)
Joe Mixon ($7800)
James Conner ($7300)
Wide Receivers
Both sites have big leans to CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Davonte Adams and DJ Moore. I can’t rule out any of them even at the ownership because of such high ceilings. Christian Kirk is a free square if he is cleared as he is bottom barrel priced on both sites. There is enough value around to pay up for 1 of these studs so I’m in, mostly on Lamb.
DK Pivots
Mike Evans ($7400)
Jayden Reed ($5700)
Joshua Palmer ($4900)
Curtis Samuel ($4300)
Demarcus Robinson ($4500)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4200)
Calvin Ridley ($6500)
Fanduel Pivots
A.J. Brown ($8200)
D.J. Moore ($8000)
Mike Evans ($8400)
Jayden Reed ($7100)
Garrett Wilson ($6600)
Tight Ends
You know I get way down on bargain guys at crazy over owned ratios that are not mispriced. This week we got two of them in Noah Gray and Johnny Mundt. I think I have to be off both of them. McBride is always worth the chalk and I am out on Gerald Everett in the chalk.
DK Pivots
Dallas Goedert ($5100)
Sam LaPorta ($6200)
Jake Ferguson ($4900)
Tucker Kraft ($3700)
DART THROW —> Auston Hooper ($2700)
FD Pivots read the same as above
Defenses
Bengals, Cowboys, and Lions lead the ownership on DraftKings and Bengals, Saints, and Raiders on FanDuel.
DK I am playing Raiders and Patriots
FD I am playing the Jets almost exclusively