Monday Night Football 2 Game Slate

We are going a different route with this one. Let’s examine a unique two-game slate through the lens of not only ownership levels and pivots but looking at contest simulations to see who is overvalued and undervalued based on how often they appear in optimal lineups vs their projected ownerships.

When I talk about optimal lineups I mean the percentage that player appears in the winning lineup when running contest sims.

Clearly the Dolphins and Packers will be insanely popular, so we have to find ways to know what chalk to double down on and what to fade.

Let’s get one thing out of the way. You play Hill. Period. No getting cute, no thinking you are smarter than the room, just lock him in. He is showing up in 96% of optimal lineups but in the mid range GPP’s he is projected to be around 62% owned. That is a whole lot of people missing out and I will not be one of them.

Second thing I will do is look at my QB. It’s going to get hard to pay up but the only QB with positive exposure vs ownership is Tua. Love come in as basically exactly worth his price and ownership and there is HUGE negative equity in both Levis and DeVito.

Tua – 47% owned 50% optimal exposure
Love – 44% owned 40% optimal exposure
DeVito – 37% owned 8% optimal exposure
Levis – 31% owne 2% optimal exposure

What this says to me is you play Tua if you can and settle for Love if you can’t. If I am not playing more that 5 lineups I am not playing either DeVito or Levis.

Running back gets tough as the obvious choices again stand out as Achane and Barkley. Tennessee run defense should hamper Mostert more that Achane but it makes it tough, but not impossible to line up Tua/Hill/Achane.

The latest news has Jones missing another game, so the shares of Dillon will be on the rise but again will be very popular. It’s hard to stay in positive exposure vs ownership and you have to take a stand somewhere. I want one of Barkley or Achane and think I ignore Mostert, Henry and get cheap with Dillon or Spears. Probably chalky but I am playing high floor with my studs.

Wide Receivers outside of Hill are pretty straight forward. Only MIA and GB guys have positive leverage. I prefer Reed and Wicks over Doubs.

TE is a complete punt. None of these guys gives any real leverage so I will almost completely punt to Cager.

Defense comes down to what you can fit. I most often find I can really only afford NYG and TEN so I will go with the Giants more often than not.

Again, if you aren’t building multi-lineups you shouldn’t have to get overly cute. Save money with Cager, Wicks, Spears and Dillon and shove what you can in everywhere else.

I want 66% Tua, 33% Love
I want Achane or Barkley in every lineup
Hill 100% Punt TE to Cager
Whatever DEF you can afford
Fading TEN and NYG wide receivers