Danger’s Chalk Report | Ownership Pivots

Jonny Danger looks at the slate through the eyes of expected ownership, letting you know what players he’s fading and what players he’s eating the chalk on.

Ownership is extremely important in DFS – we’ve talked plenty about being able to leapfrog the field if you’ve got a low-owned player that booms while a highly-owned player busts. But we also know what really matters is the uniqueness of your overall lineup, meaning you can have several chalk players as long as you structure your lineup in a unique way or have one or two low-owned pivots.

Settle in as Danger gives you his weekly analysis, with plenty of lessons along the way. He’ll be using DK as the starting point, then letting you know what’s different on FD.

Quarterbacks 

Burrow, Smith and Dak lead ownership this week but not by as big margins as last week’s leaders making QB play more wide open. In fact, Burrow remains maybe my favorite of the week on both sites.  However, if you’re looking for upside away from those three, I got you. 

DraftKings– Jared Goff has all the skills and all the weapons to get it done. Pair him up with St. Brown and/or LaPorta and sleep well.  The other side costs you a touch more in Herbert and Allen but with Vegas and myself thinking this is the biggest shootout potential, I’m shocked how low ownership is projected. Aside from them, pay up for Lamar and don’t let Cleveland D scare you.  Last time he played them he dropped 4 TDs and broke the slate. Bargain side fire up Purdy or Dobbs to save some salary. 

FanDuel– it’s Goff all day on FanDuel… I have him Projected as my 5th highest scoring QB but in the bottom half of ownership.  No better leverage as of the moment of writing this. 

Running Backs

DraftKings– 20% ownership guys are White, Mixon, Pollard, Etienne, and Conner. I’m not into chasing White against a very good Tennessee front and I’m passing on the return of Conner and Kyler in Arizona until I see it in action. I like all 3 of the other just fine but have some Pivots.  CMC just can’t be beat for points per dollar even at his salary.  Walker is in a bounce back spot and I’m all over David Montgomery over Gibbs as an alternative to playing the DET passing game. 

FanDuel– Walker jumps to nearly 25% at FanDuel followed by White, Pollard, and Bijan. I’m still in on Pollard as the Cowboys should dominate the Giants in a divisional spot.  Paying up feels right again with CMC and Etienne, as I feel this game could get going on both sides. Montgomery is a LOCK on FanDuel coming in at only the 20th most owned. He’s under 3%, less owned than Gibbs in his own backfield, and projected as my second highest scoring RB of the week on FD.

Wide Receivers

Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore, Chase, Dell, St. Brown, Hopkins, and Lockett lead the way as Chalk on both sites. I’m out on Arizona, Houston and Tennessee WR at those ownerships and on both sites I’m much more into DK than Lockett. Chase is always in play regardless of ownership, but let’s look a bit deeper.

DraftKings– Keenan Allen is basically getting ignored at 4% projected ownership and second highest point potential on the week for me.  Can you say LOCK? DK as mentioned, Kirk in a sneaky matchup and Aiyuk in that same game that sees Deebo back and opens the offense again. Deep values in Boyd and Curtis Samuel are popping nicely in my projections. 

FanDuel– Allen again is a lock button and disrespected in the attention getting paid to him.  Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk and Deebo all WAY under owned as well.  Boyd and Curtis Samuel don’t add up as nicely in FanDuel’s half point per reception scoring but still provide low owned salary saving Pivots. 

Tight Ends

DraftKings- McBride, Hockenson, Ferguson are the chalk this week and I’m going to sound like a broken record… I’m not into Arizona at all. Pivot off Hockenson to LaPorta in a better game environment and go directly down $100 to Engram from Ferguson. Fade Dell and Brown in Houston for Schultz because the Bengals can’t stop the TE, and if you need value load up one more run with Cade Otton.

FanDuel– Add in LaPorta to the chalk above on FanDuel, with a pay up pivot to Andrews and pay down for value on Logan Thomas as my favorite moves and locking in Schultz again as well. 

Defenses

Seems Dallas, Baltimore, and San Francisco will be the Chalk and if you can afford the first 2 go for it! I’m out on SF for the price. I’m heading to Cincinnati, Chargers, or even, dare I say, Jaguars? I’m going cheap as usual to spend elsewhere.