NFL DFS: The Big Game Draftkings Showdown

KC 51.5
vs
PHI -1.5

This is setting up to be a close matchup and in my mind a high-scoring affair. Yes the Philly D has been good, even great, statistically but as heavily noted one of the weakest schedules in recent history. KC is undoubtedly the best team and the toughest test by a wide margin that the Eagles have faced. Philly excels at getting after the QB while Mahomes is a master of the scramble. If there is a weakness in the Philly D it’s the middle of the field where Kelce and scramble drill receivers will try to live. The Chiefs D major flaw in fantasy is giving up big points to QBs and #1 WRs. 

Top ownership projections in order:

Hurts
Mahomes
Kelce
Smith
Brown
JuJu
Goedert

Seems the Philly stacks are a touch more popular at the moment. Hurts has the absolute highest ceiling projections so that makes sense.  

For cash games and smaller field single entries, I’m using guys like Goedert,  Sanders, and Toney in my CPT spot and filling with chalky playmakers because there is a pretty defined core. In the big GPPs I’m using the heavily owned flex players in the CPT mostly in Hurts, Kelce, Brown, and Mahomes, and taking deep shot stacks. 

Brown clearly has the highest ceiling of any WR and second highest leverage spot behind Quez Watkins because of his high price and the perception Smith is just as good and cheaper but Smith’s ownership is creeping up towards Kelce and I’m taking Brown where I can over him. 

Hurts/Brown/Goedert/Quez is my favorite 4 stack.

My next favorite is Mahomes/Kelce/Toney/CEH… 

Toney projected points are almost the same as MVS at $2700 less salary and about the same ownership.

The highest leverage play is probably straight-fading Kelce if you can stomach it.

-Hurts more often than Mahomes

-Brown more often than Smith

-Goedert more often than Kelce

-Toney over MVS and JuJu more often

-Sanders sprinkled in on occasion with Either K as well. 

-I’m fading Philly D and fading Kelce except as a CPT play. 

Deep shots on Quez, Pascal, CEH, and Gray. 2 of them in Milly makers to make Kelce or Hurts for in the CPT

Good luck! 

~Danger