NFL DFS: Thursday Night Football Showdown Week 15

Spread: San Francisco -3.5
O/U: 43

The 9-4 Niners travel to Seattle for an NFC West showdown with the 7-6 Seahawks.  San Francisco can clinch the division with a win, while Seattle needs the win to improve their chances of playing post-season football.

In two starts with Brock Purdy under center, the 49ers have focused on the run As for Seattle, they’ve been the polar opposite in the last month of the season, ranking #2 in passing rate since Week 11. Given these tendencies, I will be focusing on the 49ers’ run game in builds where I project the Niners to play with a lead, and in that same build, give a boost to Seattle pass catchers.

Captain/MVP Picks

Christain McCaffrey

Over the last two weeks, since the Brock Purdy era began, CMC is playing 77% of the snaps and averaging 20.5 touches per game. Seattle’s defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush and dead last in rush yards per game allowed over the last four weeks.

Stack with: Seattle’s passing game. Geno Smith + 2 Receivers

DK Metcalf

Metcalf leads all WRs in red-zone targets (22) and has scored four TDs in Seattle’s past six games. A 49er elite run defense, should result in Geno Smith attempting a high number of passes, which is good news for Metcalf’s ability to reach 100-plus receiving yards.

Stack with: Geno Smith and Christian McCaffrey

FLEX Picks

Brandon Aiyuk

In games without Deebo in the lineup going back to 2020 when Aiyuk entered the league, he’s averaging 15.4 PPR points per game.

Geno Smith

Seattle is one of the league’s most pass-centric offenses, and Geno has been consistent all year, posting 20+ DK points in five straight games. While not a great matchup on paper, Seattle will not be able to run the ball and will have to pass to succeed.

Tyler Locket

Using the same logic as DK Metcalf in Captain, Seattle will have to throw the ball to win.  Lockett is Geno’s favorite target between the 20’s and should see a high volume pf passes. He is also a little more expensive than Metcalf on DK, so I prefer him in the flex.

Brock Purdy

Purdy is just too enticing at his discounted salary to ignore completely. I don’t see enough upside to roster him at Captain, he will dump the ball of a lot to McCaffrey, making him a good stacking partner.

Value Picks

Jason Meyers

Myers is averaging 9.4 DK points on the season in Showdown contests. If we see the Seahawks have success moving the football but stalling in the red zone, Myers has an opportunity for 2+ FGs.

Jauan Jennings

With Deebo out you can expect Jennings to start in the WR2 role for San Francisco. He is only $3600 on DK, meaning he doesn’t have to do much to pay off his salary and he provides much needed salary savings.

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