DFS Building Blocks – Week 12
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Still looking at Brady passing stack and a Burrow stack in my secondary lineup. Both are pretty far down the expected ownership list, but I’m leaning Burrow because Henry is less than 5% ownership. I love playing him at low ownership as a great pivot away from some of the value RB options, notably Perine. A Burrow instead of Perine lineup, paired with Henry, gives us some nice leverage on the field. I’ll likely lean to stacking with Boyd for the salary savings, but I haven’t ruled out playing Burrow naked. It’s not inconceivable that Chase plays, and even if he doesn’t, could see Burrow get four TDs but spread them out so none of his pass catchers put up a monster game.
Weird week at WR where Allen and Deebo are expected to be really popular. Both have injury issues and other weapons that their teams can prioritize. Those ownership levels seem like a mistake, meaning we don’t have to go out of way to get leverage on the field this week. Just build smart, correlated lineups and we’ll be starting ahead already.
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It seems like weeks ago now that Barkley and the Giants DEF put up a stinker ruining our Fields + Cooper lineup. Even ruined our Patterson return TD.
It was a really low scoring week overall. Perhaps the lowest I can remember in recent years. Had we gone Robinson (who didn’t do much) + Washington DEF instead of Barkley last week we’re in business. Hopefully you got there. I thought about swapping from Barkley to Pollard Sunday morning simply because he was projecting to be so low owned, but I expected Elliot to bounce back pretty well. He did, but Pollard also was the top RB of the day. That actually led to a nice pivot away from Pollard for our Thanksgiving lineups.
Initial Reactions
Seattle vs Las Vegas jumps out to me. If Murray is fully healthy, which he seems to be, the public should be on this game as a potential shootout. On a less obvious note, Washington vs Atlanta could, Cincinnati vs Tennesee could, and Jacksonville vs Baltimore could. We’ll likely be able to find some low-owned spots that we can differentiate.
Game Overviews
| Arizona Cardinals * | Los Angeles Chargers | 3(-110) | 140 | 22.5 | 48 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:05 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Arizona Cardinals * | -3(-110) | -165 | 25.5 | 48 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:05 |
With Buffalo at Detroit on Thanksgiving, we’re left with a 48-point total as our highest over/under of the week. First question for this game is player health. We should always try to target TEs against Arizona, but Everett could be limited. With Keenan Allen back, and Everett’s questionable tag, hopefully ownership on Everett will be low enough that we can get good leverage while taking advantage of the best TE matchup of the day. I probably won’t have a lot of interest in the other pieces of this game, except potentially Palmer, but if Arizona can keep up, this one certainly could shootout. If the core of each team is looking healthy, this game could draw a lot of ownership.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Murray + Hopkins + Everett
Herbert + Hopkins + Everett
Herbert + Palmer + Hopkins + Everett
Ekeler + Hopkins
Conner + Everett/Palmer
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Everett
Conner
Palmer
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
McBride
Ekeler + LAC DEF
| Seattle Seahawks * | Las Vegas Raiders | -3.5(-110) | -190 | 25.5 | 47.5 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:05 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Seattle Seahawks * | 3.5(-110) | 155 | 22 | 47.5 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:05 |
Hopefully this game goes slightly under the radar and we can target it at some nice ownership leverage. With Adams putting up some big games recently, this is a great spot to turn back to Josh Jacobs. I would expect ownership to focus on Walker and Adams so a Geno + Jacobs + Lockett/Metcalf stack could be a nice differentiator here.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Smith + Jacobs + Lockett/Metcalf
Carr + Walker + Adams
Carr + Jacobs + Lockett/Metcalf
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Jacobs
Lockett
Metcalf
Moreau
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Raiders WRs not named Adams
| Miami Dolphins * | Houston Texans | -13.5(-110) | -700 | 30.25 | 47 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
| Houston Texans | Miami Dolphins * | 13.5(-110) | 500 | 16.75 | 47 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
Our first big point spread with Miami implied for the highest total of the week. We need to see how the public is attacking this game. If they’re loading up on Tua + Hill/Waddle it’s a great spot to jump on Jeff Wilson in a great matchup. Hopefully people are scared off by the split between Wilson and Mostert and we can get Wilson, who should be the lead, in a great matchup at low ownership. UPDATE: Mostert is doubtful and Wilson isn’t sneaking up on anyone. Miami DEF is a nice stacking partner here as well, with most people (including potentially me) focusing more on Washington after their last two weeks. I’ll likely let ownership drive me one way or the other.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Wilson + MIA DEF
Tua + Hill/Waddle
Tua + Hill + Waddle
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Wilson
MIA DEF
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Tua + Hill + Cooks
Tua + Hill + Collins
Kyle Allen + Wilson + Cooks
| Jacksonville Jaguars * | Baltimore Ravens | 4(-110) | 165 | 19.75 | 43.5 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Jacksonville Jaguars * | -4(-110) | -200 | 23.75 | 43.5 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 |
We’ve reached the point of some big-name teams in some low-total matchups. Maybe we can find some individual pieces to target or maybe we shy away from these games altogether. If Jacksonville can put up some offense like they did to start the year, then we could see this one go higher than expected. Lamar Jackson looks like a value when you go down the QB list from the top, so he could end up with decent ownership. He’s a little banged up though and may not run as much. If the Jags can return to playing better defense this total may be just right, making this a spot we can probably skip.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Jackson + Andrews
Jackson + Andrews + Kirk/Jones/Jones
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Jackson
Andrews
Jones/Jones
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Jackson + Etienne + Andrews
Lawrence + Kirk/Jones/Jones + Andrews
| Cleveland Browns * | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3.5(-115) | 150 | 19.75 | 43 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cleveland Browns * | -3.5(-105) | -185 | 23.25 | 43 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
Feels strange to see Brady in a game with this low a total, but the Browns will want to run the ball and slow things down. And the Bucs running game also has a nice matchup against the Browns. Fournette is doubtful meaning we might see Rachaad White pick up significant ownership. That should put him in the good chalk territory even though Tampa has had trouble running the ball. If going here, and depending on his ownership, I may want to stack him up in a unique way to get some ownership leverage. Maybe Brady + White or just White + TB DEF. In a secondary lineup, you could also go with a Brady stack that fades White and gets a lot more ownership leverage. This could be a week similar to last week where we played a Montgomery lineup and a fade-Montgomery lineup. I’d prioritize Evans but wouldn’t be afraid of an Evans + Godwin stack, coming back with Cooper or Njoku, who will be a salary saver and ownership discount to Cooper.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
White + Bucs DEF
White + Njoku/Cooper
Brady + White + Evans + Njoke/Cooper
Brady + White + Evans + Bucs DEF
Brady + Evans + Godwin + Njoku/Cooper
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
White
Evans
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Brissett (one last hurrah) + Njoku/Cooper + White
Brady + Chubb + Evans/Godwin
| Kansas City Chiefs * | Los Angeles Rams | -15.5(-110) | -1400 | 29.25 | 43 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:25 |
| Los Angeles Rams | Kansas City Chiefs * | 15.5(-110) | 775 | 13.75 | 43 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:25 |
Another big name in a low-total game. Actually, two big names. But this one is different in that KC is such a big favorite that they still have a really high implied team total. We should expect them to pass their way to their big total, even in a game where most teams would probably lean on the run. I’d rather bank on the Chiefs getting to their big game through Mahomes and then maybe pair with the Chiefs DEF. If you’re feeling frisky, could go with Mahomes + Pacheco (now that CEH is on IR) or even Pacheco + KC DEF. We’ll see what ownership looks like though. I probably wouldn’t touch any piece of the Rams unless you just want to bank on a cheap player getting some garbage-time points. That’s probably not a winning formula though.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Mahomes + JuJu + KC DEF
Mahomes + Kelce
Pacheco + KC DEF
Mahomes + McKinnon + JuJu + KC DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Mahomes
JuJu
Kelce
Pacheco/McKinnon
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Any Rams player or stack.
Perkins + JuJu
Akers + Rams DEF
| San Francisco 49ers * | New Orleans Saints | -9.5(-110) | -450 | 26.25 | 43 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:25 |
| New Orleans Saints | San Francisco 49ers * | 9.5(-110) | 333 | 16.75 | 43 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 05:25 |
SF has a decent implied team total and they have a lot of offensive weapons, but this just feels like a game where they can return to running the ball. CMC + SF DEF is in play. I don’t expect enough passing volume for Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle to really pay off unless the Saints can put up some early points and make a game of it. This is probably CMC or bust for me with the SF DEF being a nice option, depending on ownership levels.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
CMC + SF DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
CMC
SF DEF
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Dalton + CMC + Kamara
Dalton + CMC + Olave
Dalton + CMC + Johnson
Winston (takes over in second half perhaps)
| Tennessee Titans * | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.5(-105) | 120 | 20 | 42.5 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Tennessee Titans * | -2.5(-115) | -145 | 22.5 | 42.5 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
We haven’t had a Derrick Henry monster game this year. He’s been solid, but not crushing you if you haven’t been playing him. This is a tight spread so we can expect the Titans to lean on Henry. If they can jump out to a quick lead we know the Bengals can score points in bunches. After Mixon and then Perine putting up multiple-TD games, maybe King Henry reminds us that he’s still here and starts his normal December run a week early. On the other side, Chase could be back, but ownership will likely go to Perine who is priced low given his role as the starter with Mixon out. After his big game last week though, I’d rather play this game as a Henry monster with Burrow and the Bengals keeping up in the passing game. The problem is that all the Bengals WRs, including Boyd, are priced really high. You really need one of them to put up a monster to pay off. It may be smart to play this like Brady + White with a Burrow + Perine lineup or we can go way down to Hurst as the way to play this one. Burrow + Henry + Hurst or even just Henry + Hurst and we save some salary for another mini-stack somewhere else. With White, Pacheco, and Perine all solid value options a lineup like Henry + CMC + one of those value options would be pretty unique. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the primary build be White + Pacheco + Perine (now White + Wilson as the chalk) and then paying up at WR and QB. That may be chalk for good reason, but we can pay up at RB to be different.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Henry + Boyd/Hurst
Burrow + Henry + Higgins/Boyd/Hurst
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Henry
Perine
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Tannehill + Henry + Burks + Higgins/Boyd/Hurst
Woods
| Washington Commanders * | Atlanta Falcons | -4.5(-110) | -210 | 22.75 | 41 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
| Atlanta Falcons | Washington Commanders * | 4.5(-110) | 170 | 18.25 | 41 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
This is a good candidate for a stand-alone defense play with Washington. Both teams want to slow the game down, but Atlanta may need to pass. I don’t really want to pick between the Washington RBs, but I do like a cheap Dotson a couple games removed from his injury now. They shouldn’t need to pass a ton but he can do damage with low volume.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Heinicke + McLaurin/Dotson + WAS DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
WAS DEF
Dotson
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Mariota + Robinson/Gibson
Mariota + Dotson/McLaurin
| New York Jets * | Chicago Bears | -6(-110) | -250 | 22.5 | 39 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
| Chicago Bears | New York Jets * | 6(-110) | 200 | 16.5 | 39 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
Fields may not play. Even if he does, we’ve got our first chance in a few weeks to make a smart decision to fade him. Zach Wilson sitting now so we should get Mike White at QB which means lots of short passes. You can take Michael Carter, especially on DK, or even James Robinson. Elijah Moore even stands out as being cheap – maybe White can get him some volume and he can rack up yardage points. And, maybe, just maybe, we can get a glimpse of 2021 Elijah Moore.
On the Bears side, I’ll fade everyone. The Jets defense is for real and this game may just be a stinker with Fields banged up or not playing.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Carter + Jets DEF
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Jets DEF
G Wilson
Carter
Kmet
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
White + Carter
White + Wilson/Moore + Jets DEF
Fields + Carter + Kmet
| Carolina Panthers * | Denver Broncos | 2(-110) | 110 | 17 | 36 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
| Denver Broncos | Carolina Panthers * | -2(-110) | -130 | 19 | 36 | Sun, Nov 27, 2022 02:00 |
Brutal. I feel like I say this every week now, but I don’t recall seeing a total this low before. My gut says play Foreman on a week when no one else will be playing him. Outside of that, both defenses are in play. For Russell Wilson, if not now, when? But his weapons are banged up too. You could add Latavious Murray to the cheap starting RB list, especially paired with the Broncos DEF. If he picks up popularity, which he shouldn’t given the other value RB options, you could pivot to Foreman for a nice lottery-pick lineup.
Building Blocks (stacks to build around)
Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Broncos DEF
Panthers DEF
Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)
Foreman + Panthers DEF
Wilson + Foreman + Sutton/Dulcich
Darnold + Murray + Moore
Shenault
The Lineup Build
This week is all about which, or how many, value RBs we play. I’m focusing on White and Wilson. They’ll be highly owned, but we can find other spots to get unique.
FD
I’m going to build around Seattle vs Las Vegas, with Geno + Lockett (ownership discount to Metcalf) +Jacobs. Then I’ll add White at my other RB, Wilson at the flex paired with Miami defense, which is projecting to be surprisingly low owned. I’ll add Everett for a piece of the LAC/ARI game that can put up a nice score without the game turning into a shootout. I’ll add Dotson, more for gut and matchup than anything else. And I’ll Boyd to get a piece of the Bengals, hoping a potential Chase return lowers ownership on Boyd.
In my secondary, I want to build a lineup around the Bucs passing game. And I want to build a Henry + Burrow based lineup.
DK
I’m keeping some of the same approach, but I’ll move up to Mahomes at QB here, paired with JuJu. I’ll add the Chiefs DEF to this, which should give me a pretty unique stack, without needing to reach on a Rams player. I’ll keep Jacobs, White, and Wilson at RB and flex. I’ll add Njoku opposite White. I’ll fill out my WRs with Lockett and Zay Jones.
Yahoo
Pricing makes a Herbert stack pretty nice on Yahoo, so I’ll get my exposure to that game here. Herbert + Everett + Palmer + Hopkins. I’ll keep Jacobs, White, and Wilson. I’ll add Miami DEF again. I’ll add Metcalf to get a little diversity away from my other Lockett lineups.
We’ve built three lineups targeting three of the top spots on the slate. A nice example of using the different site pricing and scoring differences to diversify your lineups.