DFS Building Blocks – Week 18

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE BELOW

We’ve reached the final week of full slates. We’ll have some limited coverage for the larger playoff slates, but most of those slates you should treat like a showdown lineup looking for unique lineups that tell a story the field isn’t expecting. Or, at minimum, a lineup that is very plausible but tells a slightly different story than the heavy public chalk. If you think player x is a homerun during the playoffs, so does everyone else. Keep that in mind as you consider building unique lineups.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

I really want to jam in Taylor and Kupp, both chasing yardage milestones and both in great matchups to achieve them. That rules out my Brady + Evans + Gronk stack. And my Wilson + Conner + Lockett + Kirk stack doesn’t work either. BUT… I can go with Wilson + Conner + Taylor + Lockett + Kupp + Ertz, if I’m willing to take a gamble on the Lions D and two super cheap WRs. Agholor, Schwartz, Sharpe, D Brown, E St. Brown (but then you’re left with an even cheaper second WR) and you’re playing the Lions D, but that’s not a giant consideration here.

Another route, that is perhaps even more uncomfortable, a Big Ben + Claypool + McCloud stack. You’re still fitting in two cheap WRs with McCloud and one other, but you’re at least getting the benefit of correlation and taking a shot on Big Ben having a decent performance in his likely last game. It’s risky, but that’s why we play the game. That lineup has Gronk in it. Easy fix, if you want, drop Gronk down to Ertz and play the fade on Tampa Bay instead of Arizona. For me, Gronk is the third player chasing some milestones and money, so I really want to jam him, Taylor, and Kupp in.

Some other notes. With Burrow and Mixon out, Perine becomes a good option to add to our RB target list.

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We’ll start this week with our matchup grid talking about who has something to play for and who doesn’t. We’ll take it a step further and talk about whether we expect a full game from starters or not. For teams that are out of the playoffs but still expected to play a full game, we do have some risk of them sitting injured players, so be extra cautious with injuries this week. And we do have some teams that need to win but have easy matchups opening up the chance that they sit the fourth quarter – these are marked as blowout risk. We also need to be careful about those defenses – they may crush for a half, then let the other team score during garbage time.

Green Bay	not a full game	Detroit	full game
Indinapolis	full game (blowout risk)	Jacksonville	full game
Washington	full game	New York Giants	full game
Chicago	full game	Minnesota	full game
Tennessee	full game (blowout risk)	Houston	full game
Pittsburgh	full game	Baltimore	full game
Cincinatti	not a full game	Cleveland	full game
Carolina	full game	Tampa Bay	full game (blowout risk)
New England	potential for only half game	Miami	full game
New Orleans	full game	Atlanta	full game
Buffalo	full game	New York Jets	full game
San Francisco	full game	L.A. Rams	full game
Seattle	full game	Arizona	full game

Let’s dig in.

I’m interested in the passing games of these teams:

Bucs, Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals

And I’m interested in the running games of these teams:

Colts, Titans, Saints, Cardinals

What stands out? The Seahawks and Cardinals passing attacks are in the same game. And that I like the Cardinals’ passing and rushing attack (with Edmonds out).

I think the Rams easily beat the 49ers this week, while the public expects a tighter game. But I do expect a Rams passing onslaught.

And I’m highly interested in Brady + Evans + Gronk in an angry-Brady game. A game they need to reestablish themselves without Antonio Brown and a game without their two starting RBs.

It’s impossible to fit all the key players we like in those games listed above, so we need to really consider whether we take some cheaper pivots in a balanced lineup or pick a game to stack. And, reminder, we’ve seen a few examples recently of the benefit of building a few correlated stacks, rather than a bunch of individual plays.

Let’s start with the idea of stacking up one game and we’ll add Wilson, Conner, Lockett, and Kirk. We’ll skip Ertz at TE in favor of Gronk. And let’s jam our lineup as much as we can by adding Taylor at RB. He’s expensive, but not so much more expensive than the other top-end RBs that we would get a big benefit by pivoting. That leaves us with a cheap defense, a cheap WR, and a cheap flex. Look at Detroit way down the salary list playing a Green Bay team that has no reason (other than the rust argument) to play. And we know Detroit is scrappy. That opens up enough salary that we can actually get some respectable players for our final two pieces. Claypool is there and we like to attack the Ravens deep (if Big Ben can find one last deep ball in him). Then we have Van Jefferson staring us in the face. I’d almost rather fade the Rams completely in this lineup, but Jefferson is cheap enough that he can pay off without regretting having the full game stack. But you can also go further down the list and find Allen Robinson (betting on talent), Gabriel Davis, or Marvin Jones (mini-stack with Taylor). Marvin Jones is the right fundamental and game theory play, but I understand trying to get a piece of the Rams with Jefferson.

You can drop Taylor out of that lineup and get a bit more salary relief by playing Kamara or can really drop down and play Foreman – who is one of the best point-per-dollar plays this week. I don’t mind Singletary in the flex or replacing Conner at RB either, but Singletary does come with some blowout risk.

That opens up all sorts of possibilities, including either a full Stafford or Brady stack. I’ll be tinkering with this today to see where I land. Play around with the stacks and mini-stacks I listed below to see what you like. Bold are ones I like a bit more.

AJ Dillon + St. Brown

Lawrence + Taylor + Marvin Jones

Taylor + Marvin Jones

Taylor + Colts D (Taylor alone is the top RB play)

Cook + Jefferson (pay up to be different)

Fields + Cook + A Robinson + Jefferson

Cousins + Montgomery + Jefferson

Foreman + Tennessee D

Foreman + Cooks

AJ Brown + Cooks

Mills + Cooks + AJ Brown (most people should be on Foreman)

Roethlisberger + Claypool (or Claypool alone)

Huntley + Claypool + Andrews

Roethlisberger + Harris + Claypool + Andrews

Brady + Gronk

Brady + Evans + Gronk (+ Moore)

Brady + Vaughn + Gronk (+ Moore)

Hill + Kamara (+ Pitts)

Hill + Callaway (+ Pitts)

Stafford + Kupp

Michel + Rams D

Stafford + Kupp + OBJ

Stafford + Kupp + Kittle

Wilson + Lockett

Wilson + Lockett + Metcalf

Wilson + Conner + Lockett

Murray + Lockett/Metcalf

Murray + Kirk + Lockett + Ertz

Murray + Penny + Kirk/Ertz

Wilson + Penny + Lockett

Wilson + Conner + Lockett + Ertz

Wilson + Lockett + Ertz

Conner + Lockett + Ertz

Murray + Conner + Lockett + Ertz