Tipsy Picks week 15
by Jonny Danger
Extreme Values. Miracle dependent plays. One-off shots off the beaten path!
You’ll need a few beers or a stiff pour of bourbon to stomach these picks…
I am going to concentrate on just a guy or two for each position.
Tipsy QBs
Gardner Minshew @ BAL $5,300 (1.0%)
I know Baltimore SEEMS like a good defense but especially lately they just aren’t. Over the last 4 games they are giving up the 9th most points to QBs, the 6th most to RBs, and the 3rd most to WRs. Cleveland just gave them an absolute run for it Monday night which also means they got a day less rest than normal and are probably ripe with a bit of over confidence going into this cake matchup against Jacksonville. However the Jags have faced 3 of the same 4 teams and fared slightly better defensively if you can believe it. This could be a very high scoring game again and the Jags side will be heavily under owned.
Under Owned Favorites:
Kirk Cousins – the Bears do 1 thing well and it’s slow down the run. Kirk gonna ball!
Deshaun Watson – Way too much talent to be the 10th owned guy
Tipsy RBs
There is very little on the slate that I like in the bargain/underownerd category. But I am going to identify a couple guys if you really want to go this route
Gus Edwards $4,400 @ CAR (1.2%)
Hoping for a run fest and goal line looks here. Totally TD dependent but could be sneaky in a game that Lamar will be heavily owned and Dobbins will get the other looks first. Jacksonville is terrible against the run and that is what Baltimore likes to do the most. I don’t love the play but it will certainly be contrarian.
Damien Harris $5,100 @ MIA (1.3%)
If you look at the overall stats the Dolphins actually look pretty good against the run, but the advanced metrics actually tell a different story. I think the truth is in the middle. Miami really hasn’t faced a ton of great rushing attacks so their overall numbers given up look way better than they should. Harris is heavily used when healthy so keep an eye on the injury reports and load him up if he is a full go.
Other Cost Saving Options:
*Leonard Fournette – Going to be crazy high owned with RoJo out on the COVID list.
*Salvon Ahmed – kinda the same story as Harris as the NE grades out worse than their numbers given up suggest. I just prefer the NE side at lower ownership and higher ceiling.
Tipsy WRs
Marquise Brown $5,600 vs JAX (0.1%)
I know $5,600 isn;t a real bargain, but in a game that I feel could go high scoring, even with 4 drops Brown could find himself in the endzone yet again against one of, if not the worst defense against the WR in the league. Such low ownership for the top WR threat from the top projected QB of the week. I can’t help but want some exposure.
Keelan Cole $4,000 @BAL (0.1%)
I guess it’s clear where I am looking this week. I like this game for FIREWORKS! Minshew likes Cole and Chark more than the other guys so I am all in on a 4k guy at nearly unowned status in a high scoring game where they are projected to be behind the whole game.
Other Cost Saving Options:
Anthony Miller- I like targeting against MIN
Russell Gage – His ownership will most likely rise but he has had 32 targets over the last 4 games.
Salary Saving TEs
Jared Cook- $3,400 Gets a huge bump with no MT and Brees back
Trey Burton- $2,900 Great Matchup, Great Price
Defense Values
TBB $3000 – gotta like when you avoid Julio
SF $2900 – I like the chances of Hurts sucking more than him rocking another game