Monday Night NFL Showdown! 11/23
By Jonny Danger
Getting the game script right is the key to locking down single game slates in Showdown Mode. You have to tell yourself the story of the game and then let the players work themselves out. Of course there are always multiple ways games can pan out so there are not many “Wrong Plays”, what you want to be avoiding are “Wrong Builds”. Just make sure whatever narrative you build to make the lineup correlates and be conscious of the style of contest you entered.
Let’s look at contest selection. There is a stark difference in how you approach a 50/50 style cash game, single entry, or multi entry events. If you are trying for cash games you want the highest possible combined floor. Single entry you need to be right on how the game flow plays out and have a part of the highest scoring side or group of players. For Multi-entry you are going to need to correlate a bunch of players in weird or one off situations that are maybe a bit out there but not totally random. In all circumstances don’t get cute just to be cute. It might work one time but it just won’t be winning ROI for you.
Looking at Vegas to get an idea on where the betting public thinks the game will go is always a good step to get a feeling for the story of the game.
Rams (48)
@
Buccaneers (-4)
The questions we have to answer tonight is will we get Tom Brady the killer or will we get the Rams defense that shut down the Seahawks a little over a week ago. The truth of this game is I believe it will be a defensive game. TB has had a very good run defense and the Rams have been a top 2 unit against the pass. As such I’m building most of my lineups today on one side or the other with a Defense or a Kicker built into a 4-2 split or even the 5-1 splits. I don’t really like the 3-3 personally in the low scoring games. For the Rams, I’m looking through the way TB has been vulnerable at times and it seems to me that the bigger play by receivers that play like Robert Woods are the most likely to be the path to victory. Also it seems the occasional deep shot to Reynolds is on the table. I’m not high on Kupp because of this. It also seems to me that one of the TEs will be a spot for leverage between Higbee and Everrett. If you look back and see who had success against it was DJ Moore, Sheppard, Agholor, Waller, Robinson, Graham… This seems to support why I like Woods and one of the TE’s tonight. Even Kamara wasn’t great in a blow out win over the Bucs.
For plays against the Rams the common thoughts are to steer clear of their top CB’s and figure they will do the best they can to limit the top playmakers in Godwin and Evans. Ever since the arrival of Brown, Scotty miller has been non-existent. Between AB and Gronk they have filled in almost all snaps with a touch of Cam Brate besides Evans and Godwin. It is entirely possible that Evans is shut down completely the same as Metcalf, and I only like Godwin slightly more. I hate to say it but I am on board with AB and Gronk this week and also expect as much looks to RoJo as the game script allows.
Here are my favorite players to target.
LAR
Favorite CPT
Woods/Higbee/Reynolds
Most Exposure in Flex
Woods
Higbee
Reynolds
Gay
DST
Mixing in sparsely
Everett
Brown
Henderson
Akers
Goff
TB
Favorite CPT
Gronk/Brown/RoJo/
Most Exposure in Flex
RoJo
Gronk
Brown
Godwin
Succup
DST
Mixing in sparsely
Brady
Brate
Fournette
Evans
My Favorite Starting Stacks
Woods/Higbee/DST
Woods/M Brown/Higbee
A Brown/Gronk/Brady
Gronk/Rojo/DST