Week 13 Fantasy Football Recap

I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving and the holiday weekend, both on and off the fantasy football gridiron. If you were too lost in a haze of turkey and relatives to keep up with the action from all 16 games in Week 13, never fear. Here are the top 10 important trends to know as the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner.

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 13

Harold Fannin Jr. Emerges (For Real This Time?)

Harold Fannin Jr.’s rookie season has been a rollercoaster. The reigning NCAA leader in receiving yards is undeniably highly involved as a receiver for the tight end position. But he has — despite a few false alarms — never really managed to cement himself as an every-down player in the Browns’ offense, with the presence of veteran TE David Njoku being the biggest thorn in his side. 

But in Week 13, even with Njoku healthy, Fannin’s usage exploded. He posted a 90% route participation rate, by far his highest of the season. This wasn’t just well clear of Njoku (who was down at 37%), but it also easily led the entire Cleveland offense. 

Fannin also led the Browns in targets, with five for a solid 19% share in both targets and air yards. He caught three of those looks for 43 yards and his third career touchdown. I hesitate to say this, because I’ve said it before and been wrong … but he looks on track to be a TE1 going forward. 

The Sun God Goes Down

Just four snaps into the Lions’ annual Thanksgiving contests, Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an ankle injury. He did not return. With Kalif Raymond already sidelined by an ankle injury of his own and Sam LaPorta on IR, there was a sudden glaring lack of passing-game options for one of the league’s best offenses. 

The top candidate to step up was Jameson Williams, and he did. Coming off a literal donut, he posted a season-high 23.4 half-PPR points on a season-high 37% target share. As long as St. Brown remains out (which should be for at least a week, given that the Lions play on Thursday), he is a must-start.

The other big beneficiary of St. Brown’s absence was third-round rookie Isaac TeSlaa, whose 84% route participation rate nearly doubled his previous career high. TeSlaa only saw two targets, but he caught them both for 35 yards and a TD. He now has three TDs and multiple epic highlights on just six career catches, which is both encouraging and discouraging, depending on how you look at it. He’s worth considering as a boom/bust flex option while ARSB is out. 

Adonai Mitchell Takes His Chance

Week 13 was massive for Adonai Mitchell. The 2024 second-rounder (who moved from Indy to New York in the Sauce Gardner trade) caught eight of 12 targets for 102 yards and his first career TD. His 20.2 half-PPR points doubled his previous career high. 

Since arriving in New York, Mitchell has now seen target shares of 22%, 25%, and 36%, in that order. His route rate has also trended up, peaking at a full-time 88% on Sunday (although he still trailed John Metchie III, who was up at 98%).

Mitchell, who is still just 23 years old, has shown flashes throughout his NFL career. Now he seems to be finally turning those flashes into real-life production. He should be added in all leagues and is already a viable flex play for Week 14 against the Dolphins. 

The Saints’ Backfield Without Alvin Kamara = Devin Neal

With Alvin Kamara sidelined by a knee injury, rookie RB Devin Neal served as the Saints’ workhorse on Sunday. He played 81% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps, carried the ball 14 times, and saw three targets on a 69% route participation rate. 

Taysom Hill was heavily involved after Kamara went down in Week 12, but he saw just one carry this week. Evan Hull, a fifth-round pick by the Colts in the 2023 draft, served as Neal’s backup. He saw five carries on just 12 snaps, still leaving Neal with a very solid 70% RB rush share. The results weren’t great for Neal this week (8.4 half-PPR points), but he should be a solid starting option as long as Kamara is out with this usage.

Bucky Irving Returns With a Bang

Second-year RB Bucky Irving took the field for the first time since Week 4 on Sunday, and he immediately reclaimed his spot as Tampa Bay’s RB1. He racked up 17 carries and two targets on a 54% snap share, finishing with 15.1 half-PPR points. 

If anything, there’s a chance Bucky’s role will increase going forward, as that snap share, his 24% route share, and his 7% target share were all season lows. He is already once again a must-start fantasy option. 

Meanwhile, Sean Tucker and Rachaad White split the scraps that were left over in the Buccaneers’ backfield. White, who did see three targets and led the team in routes, had the better role, but it wasn’t exactly a good one. Neither is playable at this point, and they can be dropped in shallower formats. 

Isiah Pacheco Returns Without a Bang

Like Irving, Isiah Pacheco returned to the field in Week 13 after a lengthy absence. Unlike Irving, he did not immediately reclaim his team’s RB1 role. Pacheco did not get the start, and he recorded just three carries and two targets on a season-low 30% snap share. Kareem Hunt was the Chiefs’ clear RB1, with 16 total touches on over double Pacheco’s snaps.

Pacheco’s role could increase as he gets back up to game speed. But at this point, it seems unlikely that he will return to being the 1A to Hunt’s 1B in this offense. He’s closer to droppable than startable, while Hunt is a flex option, albeit not a super appealing one. 

Maybe Rhamondre Stevenson Isn’t Dead Yet

For evidence that sometimes players can see their roles grow as they get further removed from injury, we need look no further than Rhamondre Stevenson. In Week 12, his first week back from injury, the veteran was an afterthought behind TreVeyon Henderson in the Patriots’ backfield. On Monday night, their split was much closer to 50/50.

In fact, Stevenson actually led Henderson in snap share (60% to 48%), carries (12 to 11), and route share (58% to 42%). On the other hand, Henderson finished with one more target (three to four) and 0.6 more fantasy points (10.1 to 9.5).

Unfortunately, this may be a worst-case scenario for fantasy managers. Neither New England back has been efficient this season, so it’s hard to see either of them being a great option on roughly a 50% share of the work. But if I had to pick, I’d pick Stevenson, who led the backfield on Monday night and is trending up while Henderson trends down. 

Maybe Chuba Hubbard Isn’t Dead Yet

The Patriots weren’t the only team to see their backfield move backward in time in Week 13. As the Panthers pulled off a shocking upset over the Rams, Chuba Hubbard was their RB1. Hubbard started the season as the Panthers’ bell cow, but he eventually lost that job due to some injuries and massive performances by Rico Dowdle. But on Sunday, he led Dowdle in snaps (58% to 44%), routes (13 to five), and fantasy points (19.4 to 8.9). Dowdle did still see one more carry (18 to 17), while both backs saw two targets.  

Thankfully, I’m a little more optimistic about this situation than the one in New England. The Panthers lead the entire NFL in rush rate over expectation, so they might have enough carries to go around for both backs to be usable. Regardless, this is definitely a situation to monitor, as Hubbard has gone from an afterthought back to being the team’s RB1 seemingly out of nowhere. 

Sean Payton Gets Back to His Old Tricks

Since arriving in Denver, Sean Payton has made a habit of using his skill-position players, especially receivers, in confounding ways. Historically, the one exception to that role has been Courtland Sutton, who remained the Broncos’ WR1 while everything else changed around him. In recent weeks, second-year WR Troy Franklin had actually stolen that spot from Sutton, but both receivers were seeing decent usage.

This week, that all fell apart. Franklin fell to a 69% route participation rate, by far his lowest since Week 7. He saw only three targets for a 7% target share, his lowest of the entire season. Meanwhile, Sutton also posted his lowest route rate since Week 7 at 75%, and his six targets were good for a 13% share, his second-lowest of the season.

So who did the Broncos’ passing offense run through? Well, Evan Engram (20%) and Pat Bryant (16%) led the team in targets. They posted route rates of 69% and 73% respectively — both tying or surpassing their previous season highs. But I’m not about to tell you to rush to start (or even add) either of them. This was Engram’s first top-10 finish of the season, and Bryant still only scored just 5.7 points to bring his average to 3.5 points per game. At this point, I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting any Denver WR or TE in the fantasy playoffs. 

Maybe Michael Wilson Isn’t the League’s Greatest Receiver

Marvin Harrison Jr. missed two weeks after undergoing an emergency appendectomy. In those two weeks, Michael Wilson averaged 12.5 receptions for 152 yards and 21.4 half-PPR points per game. In MHJ’s first game back, Wilson caught three of seven targets for 36 scoreless yards. This was even with Harrison Jr. being eased back in with just a 58% route participation rate. 

To be fair, those seven targets did tie Wilson’s season-high for a game with MHJ active. His 18% target share was also a new peak in that category.  But, at least based on this one game, it’s clear that Wilson’s two massive performances haven’t earned him a substantially larger role in the Cardinals’ offense. I honestly wouldn’t blame anyone for simply dropping him and moving on with their season.