Week 10 Fantasy Football Game Previews
Welcome to Week 10’s fantasy football game previews! As well as the usual discussion of who to trust in your Redraft leagues, I’ll also include a bit of extra DFS talk for players on the main slate, as the one and only Reginald Appleby is out this week. That means this article will be even longer than usual, so let’s get right into it.
Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts (Berlin Game)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET | Projected Totals: Falcons 20.75, Colts 27.25
The Colts offense looked mortal for maybe the first time all season last week, managing just 20 points against a mediocre Steelers defense. They should bounce back in Berlin this week, although Atlanta’s defense is actually a tougher test. On the other side, the Falcons’ mediocre offense might find tough sledding against Indianapolis’ decent defense. Once again, this is an early-morning game that the well-adjusted among you might consider sleeping through.
Quarterbacks
Based on what happened when he was out in Week 8, Michael Penix Jr. is important to this Falcons offense … but he’s not exactly playing well. He’s just a backend QB2 in a mediocre matchup. Daniel Jones, on the other hand, is having a career season. Even facing a tough defense, he’s a backend QB1 this week.
Running Backs
This may be the easiest section I’ll write all season: Both Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor are no-doubt must-start RB1s. Tyler Allgeier is the only other back even worth mentioning, but he’s a very risky flex play given that Atlanta will likely be playing from behind.
Wide Receivers
Fresh off a three-TD domination of the Patriots, Drake London is clearly a WR1. Darnell Mooney, on the other hand, has gone from failing to produce on promising usage to matching bad production with bad usage. He’s a boom/bust flex play. On the other side, Michael Pittman Jr. has produced like a legit WR1 this season. In this tough matchup, he’s more of a borderline WR1 or high-end WR2, but he’s still a must-start. Alec Pierce has also quietly been productive, with one key caveat — he is 12th in the league in receiving yards per game but has scored zero touchdowns. They will come eventually, so he is a high-upside WR3. Josh Downs is more of a borderline WR3 or flex option, as both his ceiling and floor are always lowered by his low route shares.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts has been solid all season, and the Colts’ defense is weak against tight ends — he is a backend TE1. On the other hand, Tyler Warren had his worst game of the season last week, and the Falcons have absolutely shut down opposing TEs all year … but he’s still probably a must-start.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Saints 17.00, Panthers 22.50
We begin the main DFS slate with an unappealing matchup. The Saints have switched to Tyler Shough, but the rookie so far seems to be a downgrade from Spencer Rattler. Meanwhile, the only thing keeping the Panthers’ offense afloat is that Rico Dowdle has emerged as seemingly one of the league’s best rushers.
Quarterbacks
As mentioned, Tyler Shough has performed worse than Spencer Rattler did, and he doesn’t even seem to bring the same rushing upside. He’s the worst QB option of the week. Bryce Young is better, but not by much, landing as a borderline QB2.
Running Backs
There’s very little left to like about Alvin Kamara at this point. He hasn’t had the juice in years, and his usage over the last two weeks has been miserable. He’s on the border between RB2 and RB3, and even that seems generous. Devin Neal is seeing enough snaps to cut into Kamara’s value, but he’s not playable in his own right. On the other side, Rico Dowdle has averaged legitimately 30.0 half-PPR points in his three starts this season. He’s a must-start in a positive matchup and one of my favorite plays on the DFS slate. Chuba Hubbard is a barely flex-worthy backup at this point.
Wide Receivers
With Rashid Shaheed traded to Seattle, Chris Olave should absolutely dominate targets for New Orleans, making him a WR2. Veteran Brandin Cooks should be the Saints’ WR2, making him a viable deep-league flex. Tetairoa McMillan popped up on the Panthers’ injury report with a hamstring issue this week, and he seems legitimately questionable. If he is able to play, he’s also a backend WR2. Behind the rookie, Jalen Coker ran more routes than Xavier Legette for the first time this season in Week 9. With T-Mac in, they’re both unappealing flex options. If McMillan is out … they’re slightly more appealing flex options.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson should also benefit from Shaheed’s departure. He was seeing decent usage anyway, making him a high-end TE2. Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble are splitting work in Carolina’s offense, making them both unplayable.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Giants 21.00, Bears 25.50
This game could be fun, as neither of these defenses is particularly intimidating. The big question is whether the Giants can push the Bears to pass, as Ben Johnson has been leaning into the running game more in recent weeks.
Quarterbacks
I’m officially throwing in the towel on expecting Jaxson Dart’s fantasy production to regress. His position-leading rushing volume is just that powerful; he’s an excellent QB1 this week and a good value DFS play. Caleb Williams is more of a backend QB1, but he is also definitely a viable DFS option against New York’s beatable secondary.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary saw more usage than Tyrone Tracy Jr. last week, but not by much. A 50/50 committee in a mediocre offense isn’t too appealing, so they’re both just high-end RB3 options. Meanwhile, the Bears’ backfield is in a confusing state. Last week, with D’Andre Swift sidelined by injury, rookie Kyle Monangai exploded. Swift was on track to return, meaning the question of the week was how the duo would split touches (perhaps a hot-hand approach?). But Swift missed practice on Friday with a personal issue and is now listed as questionable. If he’s out, Monangai is a must-start and smash play. If he’s in, both backs will be high-upside/low-floor RB2 options. Right now, I’d assume Swift would see the majority of the work, but that could easily change if we get new info.
Wide Receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson just keeps racking up targets and points, and this is an excellent matchup. He’s a backend WR2. Darius Slayton (and to a lesser extent Ray-Ray McCloud, who posted an 87% route participation rate last week) is also viable as a flex option or punt DFS play due to the Bears’ defensive struggles. For the Bears, Rome Odunze is still a great option coming off his frustrating goose egg. He’s a high-end WR2 and could be a sneaky DFS play if everyone is scared off him. DJ Moore is also in play as a WR3, while the return of Luther Burden III makes it hard to trust Olamide Zaccheaus as more than a very deep flex.
Tight Ends
Theo Johnson saw his route rate slip slightly last week, but that may have been related to a shoulder injury that saw him listed as limited at practice this week. He is now good to go and profiles as a borderline TE1 for Sunday. Cole Kmet looks likely to return for the Bears this week, which means I am fully out on Colston Loveland. The rookie’s performance last week was undeniably excellent, but he has yet to be a full-time player when Kmet is healthy. He’s not cheap enough to be a value DFS option and too risky to play in one-TE leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Jaguars 19.50, Texans 18.00
This game would be uninspiring even if everyone involved were healthy. But C.J. Stroud, Travis Hunter, and Brian Thomas Jr. are all out, so instead we get Davis Mills vs. Trevor Lawrence, the latter of whom is throwing to Parker Washington and fresh off the plane Jakobi Meyers. Yuck.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence is an inconsistent fantasy QB at the best of times, and now he is without his top two weapons in a terrible matchup. He’s a backend QB2. Davis Mills is essentially unplayable unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB format.
Running Backs
Traivs Etienne bounced back last week after a few down performances prior to the Jaguars’ bye. His workload is still excellent, so he is an RB2 despite the bad matchup. Bhayshul Tuten is still not involved enough to be more than a dart-throw flex option. For the Texans, Woody Marks and Nick Chubb have settled into a fairly even committee. The rookie is the better pass-catcher, but Chubb has been the more efficient rusher. They are both RB3 options.
Wide Receivers
It sounds as though Jakobi Meyers will play just a part-time role in his Jacksonville debut, so he’s not a particularly playable option. However, that does mean Parker Washington should be uncontested as the team’s top target out of the slot. He is a borderline WR3 (and a potential DFS value option), while Dyami Brown is a risky flex. With Stroud out, Nico Collins is the only Houston WR I am particularly interested in; he is a borderline WR1. Christian Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson ran ahead of the rookie duo of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel last week, so the two veterans are flex plays … but not appealing ones.
Tight Ends
I don’t blame anyone who doesn’t even know that Hunter Long is currently the Jaguars’ TE1 — he’s not on the fantasy radar. Dalton Schultz, on the other hand, quietly ranks eighth at the position in targets per game. Still, with Mills, he’s just a TE2.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bills 29.50, Dolphins 20.50
After a couple of tough losses heading into their Week 7 bye, the Bills are once again rolling. They dominated Carolina in Week 8, then took down the red-hot Chiefs in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off their third game this season with fewer than 10 total points — only the Raiders (four) have matched that feat. With that said, this game has the highest total of the entire weekend. We just need Miami’s offense, which still has talent and upside, to show up.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen is an elite must-start option. The game script for Tua Tagovailoa is slightly intriguing, but the Bills’ defense has actually shut down opposing QBs, so the matchup is not. He’s a borderline QB2.
Running Backs
After seemingly legitimately questionable early in the week, James Cook is good to go for a juicy matchup with arguably the league’s worst run defense. He is an elite RB1. So, too, is De’Von Achane; the Bills have also struggled to keep opposing backs in check.
Wide Receivers
Perhaps because of how soft they are on the ground, the Dolphins have actually been one of the stingiest opponents for wide receivers this season. That makes Buffalo’s already usage-challenged group of WRs less appealing than usual. Khalil Shakir is a high-upside/low-floor WR3, while Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Elijah Moore/Tyrell Shavers (in that order) all fall somewhere between “risky flex play” and “pure desperation punt.” For Miami, it’s all about Jaylen Waddle, who is a legit WR1. Malik Washington is a deep flex play, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a pure dart throw.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid is one of the weirdest players of the season. Despite hovering around a 50% route participation rate, his usage when he is on the field is valuable enough to make him a legit TE1. I’m still slightly worried he is eventually going to have a string of duds, but it’s hard to argue with the results for now. Former Bronco Greg Dulcich took over as Miami’s primary receiving TE last week, and his role should only increase with Tanner Conner being waived by the team this week. He’s not on the radar in normal leagues, but is just cheap enough to be a potential punt option in DFS.
Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Ravens 26.50, Vikings 22.25
Both of these teams welcomed back previously injured starting quarterbacks last week. Lamar Jackson didn’t look quite like himself but still led Baltimore to a dominant victory in Miami, while J.J. McCarthy did just enough for the Vikings to pull a big upset over the Lions.
Quarterbacks
I may have just said he didn’t look like himself, but even a hobbled Lamar Jackson is an elite fantasy option. He leads the NFL in points per game and is a must-start. J.J. McCarthy, meanwhile, salvaged an otherwise mediocre fantasy day with a rushing TD, the second time he has pulled off that feat in three career starts. With players returning from injury, the Ravens’ defense isn’t as soft as it looks on paper, so the 22-year-old is just a QB2. However, his potential dual-threat upside in what could be a high-scoring game does make him a more intriguing DFS option than you might think.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step (if not two) so far this season. But, with Lamar healthy, it’s impossible to argue with his volume and TD equity. He’s a backend RB1. For the Vikings, Aaron Jones has been the clear lead back over Jordan Mason since he returned from injury. However, the veteran is once again dealing with an injury (two, in fact, one shoulder and one toe), so he is listed as questionable. Assuming he plays, Jones is a high-upside RB3 while Mason is a risky flex option at best. If Jones is out, Mason should consolidate enough volume to be an RB2.
Wide Receivers
Remember after Week 1 when Zay Flowers had officially ascended to elite WR1 status? The third-year WR has literally yet to have a game half as good as his 2025 debut, but he is still a borderline WR1 now that Jackson is back. Rashod Bateman should also be considered as a high-upside flex play. I should note that the Vikings’ offense has consistently been less pass-heavy with McCarthy under center, but that only bumps Justin Jefferson from “elite WR1” to “solid WR1.” Jordan Addison also gets a downgrade, but again, it only moves him to high-end WR3 status. Jalen Nailor is only playable if you’re desperate.
Tight Ends
At this point, Mark Andrews is a TD-or-bust option — he has run 52% of the available routes in each of the last two weeks and has recorded more than 35 receiving yards just once all season. Thankfully, he is one of the more likely players to score a TD in any given week, keeping him in the high-end TE2 conversation. Unlike Andrews, T.J. Hockenson is consistently running routes; he just isn’t doing anything with them. He’s more of a mid-range TE2. Isaiah Likely also deserves mention, but he’s running even fewer routes and seeing fewer targets than Andrews — he’s a pure punt play.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Browns 19.75, Jets 17.75
This game is tied with Houston/Jacksonville for the lowest total of the weekend. The Browns’ defense is excellent, but their Dillon Gabriel-led offense is exactly as good as you would expect a Dillon Gabriel-led offense to be. Meanwhile, the Jets had a fairly successful fire sale at the deadline. Their already mediocre defense is now without its two best players, while Aaron Glenn refuses to tell anyone whether Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor will start … like it matters.
Quarterbacks
Even in a theoretically good matchup, Dillon Gabriel is only playable if you are well and truly out of options in 2-QB formats. On the other side, the consensus assumption is that Justin Fields will get the start for the Jets. His upside, as it always is, is massive. But we also know that he is capable of imploding against good defenses, which Cleveland’s is. He’s a QB2 with an absurdly wide range of outcomes … which might make him a viable DFS play.
Running Backs
Quinshon Judkins has seen excellent usage and been efficient on the ground, but he is held back by Cleveland’s incompetence and his own lack of receiving usage. Thankfully, the Browns are actually favored for this one. That frees the rookie up to be a borderline RB1. On the other side, Breece Hall is still a Jet despite reportedly wanting out prior to the NFL Trade Deadline. He is also efficient and has good rushing usage, but his matchup is much worse, as Cleveland’s run defense has been excellent this season. Hall still projects as an RB2, but I am a little worried he will fail to get going if things go south for New York in this one.
Wide Receivers
It’s almost inevitable that Jerry Jeudy will eventually have a big game or two given his still-solid usage, and this matchup is as good as any for him to do it in. With that said, his production has been truly dreadful. He is just a risky option as a flex or DFS value. The same applies to Cedric Tillman, returning from injury this week. For the Jets, Garrett Wilson is expected to return after missing time with a knee injury. He is not immune to New York’s offensive struggles, but he should see enough volume to be a WR2. With Josh Reynolds on IR, Tyler Johnson and Allen Lazard will compete for the team’s WR2 job, but neither is more than a very deep flex option.
Tight Ends
Harold Fannin Jr. saw more routes than David Njoku last week in the latter’s return from injury. But now it is the rookie who finds himself listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. If he plays, Fannin is a borderline TE1 while Njoku is a TE2. If Fannin is out, Njoku is suddenly in the TE1 conversation and a good value option. Mason Taylor has seen his target share fluctuate, but he consistently runs enough routes to be a decent TE2 option.
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Patriots 23.00, Buccaneers 25.50
This still feels to me like the “Tom Brady Bowl,” but both Tampa Bay and New England have moved on from the future Hall of Famer. Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye are both playing like elite QBs, and neither of these defenses is particularly intimidating, so this should be a fun one.
Quarterbacks
Drake Maye has emerged as an elite fantasy QB, and this is an excellent matchup. He is a must-start. Baker Mayfield doesn’t bring the same dual-threat ceiling as Maye, but he’s still a solid QB1 in his own right.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out for another week, so the Patriots’ backfield should again be divided between TreVeyon Henderson and Tererell Jennings. He hasn’t lived up to expectations, but Henderson saw great usage with Rhamondre out last week, and this is a good matchup; he is an RB2. Meanwhile, Jennings did see 12 opportunities but only played 17 snaps. He’s more of a flex play. Tampa Bay is also missing its usual RB1, Bucky Irving, for another week. That means Rachaad White is in for another week of solid volume, making him also an RB2. Sean Tucker trended up the last time we saw the Buccaneers (prior to their Week 9 bye), but had previously been a non-factor even with Irving out. He’s just a risky flex option.
Wide Receivers
Kayshon Boutte is out for the Patriots after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 9. Even with the sophomore exiting early last week, Stefon Diggs still posted a route participation rate below 70% for the fifth time in the last six weeks. With that in mind, I struggle to view him as more than a borderline WR2. However, Diggs’ route rate looks pristine compared to Demario Douglas, who had a big week last week but still only ran 12 routes (a 33% participation rate). The slot specialist has averaged just a 40% participation rate for the season — I would genuinely rather play Mack Hollins, although neither is more than a flex option. Although they are still missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay seems to have settled their WR rotation for now: Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson are the top options, with Sterling Shepard joining them in three-WR sets. Egbuka is a legit WR, Johnson is a borderline WR3, and Shepard is a flex play.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry provides essentially no ceiling, but he is consistent. He is a borderline TE1. Cade Otton has also seen consistent targets recently, but I still see him as more of a TE2.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Cardinals 19.25, Seahawks 25.75
These two teams’ seasons couldn’t be going more differently. The Cardinals have officially benched Kyler Murray for Jacoby Brissett, a move that means the franchise’s future is completely up in the air. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have played so well that they were buyers at the trade deadline, reuniting OC Klint Kubiak with speedy WR Rashid Shaheed. Divisional games can get weird, but this is likely to be a fairly comfortable home outing for Seattle.
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett has actually been productive in his team as the Cardinals’ starter, averaging over 22 fantasy points per game. However, this Seattle defense is a much tougher test than the Dallas unit he lit up last Monday night. He is just a mid-range QB2 in this matchup. Sam Darnold is playing like one of the league’s best QBs, but his game isn’t fantasy-friendly, and this matchup is mediocre. He’s a high-end QB2, but not a true QB1.
Running Backs
Last week, the Cardinals split their backfield fairly evenly between Bam Knight and Emari Demercado. Surprisingly, Demercado was the primary rusher while Knight easily led in routes and saw one more target. Given the tough matchup, they are both low-end RB3s, but I prefer Demercado out of the two. The Seahawks are also continuing their infamous split between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. However, everything about their backfield — talent, offensive situation, and matchup — is more appealing. Walker and Charbonnet are both borderline RB2s, with KW3 being the better play of the two.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Harrison Jr. does seem to be performing better with Brissett than he did with Kyler, but we have to take last week’s big game with a grain of salt. It was against the Cowboys, after all. He is a solid WR2. Michael Wilson is the only other Arizona WR to consider, and he is just a low-tier flex play. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is an absolute stud and must-start WR1. After him, I expect Cooper Kupp to serve as the team’s WR2 for one more week. Rashid Shaheed does theoretically have familiarity with Kubiak’s offense, but he’s still unlikely to hit the ground running as a full-time player; rookie Tory Horton is listed as doubtful. Kupp is a mediocre flex option, and Shaheed is a pure dart throw hoping for a big play.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride was already an elite must-start TE1, and he is actually scoring touchdowns with Brissett under center. He’s also the only top-tier TE on this week’s DFS slate, and I lean toward trying to get him in where possible. AJ Barner ran extra routes with Kupp sidelined last week and could again this week with Horton out. However, he’s still just a borderline TE2.
Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Lions 28.50, Commanders 20.50
If Jayden Daniels were healthy and playing like his 2024 self, this would be a very exciting matchup. Instead, it projects to be another easy win for the Lions … although so did last week. The Lions’ total is the second-highest on the weekend behind only Buffalo, and their offense is arguably more predictable. That makes all of Detroit’s players exciting options in both Redraft and DFS, while the Commanders are a fairly uninspiring bunch.
Quarterbacks
It’s always hard to know how to approach Jared Goff in games where Detroit is heavily favored. In some games, he keeps the pedal to the metal and throws five TDs. In others, he lets Sonic and Knuckles work and finishes with mediocre final numbers. His average outcome is probably that of a backend QB1, but he could easily soar past that or finish below it. Marcus Mariota has actually played well when filling in for Daniels so far this season, and he does still bring a bit of rushing juice. In a fine matchup, he’s a high-end QB2.
Running Backs
His usage last week was frustrating, but Jahmyr Gibbs is still a must-start in a good matchup — if anything, maybe this opens him up as a less-rostered-than-usual DFS option. Meanwhile, Gibbs’ bad day corresponded with David Montgomery trending back up after a few weeks of concerning usage. He’s a backend RB2, although I am still slightly concerned about his ability to maintain consistent fantasy production in this backfield. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been mediocre since claiming the lead rushing role for the Commanders, and he may be losing that job. Chris Rodriguez Jr. equaled the rookie in carries last week and actually led the team in snaps. Now, there is speculation that Rodriguez’s role will grow further. Oh yeah, and Jeremy McNichols is still involved as the group’s primary pass-catcher. All three are technically flex options, but the safest move is probably to avoid this backfield entirely in a bad matchup.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown is, once again, an elite fantasy WR1. Jameson Williams, on the other hand, has failed to emerge as a consistent option. His big-play capability keeps him in the WR3 conversion, but his low target share means he has a low floor. With Terry McLaurin out once again, Deebo Samuel is the Commanders’ clear WR1 and a solid fantasy WR2. Chris Moore should serve as Washington’s WR2, but he is just an unappealing flex play.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta doesn’t quite see enough volume to provide consistent results, but that’s a very rare thing at the TE position. He’s still a solid TE1. Zach Ertz is more of a borderline TE1 or high-end QB2 — his steady role is less valuable with Washington’s offensive struggles.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Rams 27.00, 49ers 22.50
These two division rivals have the same number of wins, but the vibes for each team are very different (as reflected by the Rams being big favorites on the road). LA looks like one of the league’s best teams, while the 49ers are fighting for every win thanks to multiple key injuries on both sides of the ball. The 49ers are also in for another week of Mac Jones, and I’m not sure even Kyle Shanahan can cook up a repeat of their thrilling Week 5 OT upset.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford is absolutely cooking in his age-37 season. An utter lack of mobility keeps him from being an elite fantasy option, but he is a backend QB1 against the 49ers’ limping defense. Mac Jones has had his fair share of moments this season, including a 22-point outing against this same excellent Rams defense … but he’s just a QB2.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams just continues to rack up touches and get the job done for the Rams’ offense. He is a solid backend RB1, especially given they have the fourth-highest total of the slate. Blake Corum also gets a drive or two to himself every game, giving him some limited flex appeal. Christian McCaffrey is seeing lead back carries and the targets of an elite slot receiver — he’s a must-start even in a bad matchup.
Wide Receivers
When Puka Nacua is healthy, he is a top-tier receiver, if not in a tier by himself. Impressively, the Rams’ offense is so condensed that Davante Adams is also a WR1 in his own right — he has twice as many end zone targets (eight) as the second-ranked player this season. For the 49ers, Jauan Jennings has clearly been the team’s WR1 since returning to full health. He is a solid high-upside WR3 (and an excellent DFS value play), while Kendrick Bourne is more of a flex play.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee returned to leading the Rams TE room in routes last week, but he still finished below a 50% participation rate. He’s a TD-or-bust dart throw. George Kittle has yet to have one of his trademark explosion games, but there’s no reason to think they aren’t coming. He’s a top-half TE1.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Steelers 21.25, Chargers 23.75
In classic Steelers fashion, Pittsburgh won a game no one expected them to win last week against the Colts. Will they make it two upsets in a row on Sunday night football? Frankly, I doubt it. Along with being at home, the Chargers’ defense has been better than Pittsburgh’s this season. LA’s offense is dealing with multiple key offensive line injuries, but Justin Herbert has been playing well enough to compensate so far.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers has started pushing the ball down the field more after having a comically low ADOT to start the season, but it hasn’t really changed his fantasy results. He’s a mid-range QB2. Justin Herbet, as mentioned, has been playing out of his mind. This includes rushing far more than in any prior year of his career, which has boosted his fantasy stock. He is a top-half QB1, especially considering Pittsburgh’s defense has given up the fifth-most points to opposing QBs.
Running Backs
Jaylen Warren is once again the Steelers’ clear RB1. Kenneth Gainwell mixes in for some carries and a passing-down role, while rookie Kaleb Johnson may actually just be a figment of our collective imagination. Warren is a borderline RB1, and Gainwell is a flex option. Kimani Vidal disappointed in an excellent matchup with the Titans last week, and he also saw Jaret Patterson claim an increased share of carries. However, the sophomore RB is still an RB2, while Patterson is not playable.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf was the only Pittsburgh pass-catcher to post even a 60% route participation rate last Sunday — he is a solid WR2. Calvin Austin was next on the team in routes at 59%, keeping himself in the flex conversation. Things are much trickier in LA’s WR room. After a slow start to the season, Ladd McConkey is back on top (for now). Quentin Johnston has been up-and-down for the last month, while Keenan Allen has been reduced to a truly part-time role (50% and 51% route participation rates in the last two weeks). Since it’s my job to rank them, I’ll say Ladd is a borderline WR1, QJ is a boom/bust WR3, and Allen is a borderline WR3.
Tight Ends
Last week, Pat Freiermuth ran more routes than Jonnu Smith for just the second time all season … but they were both below a 50% participation rate. Neither is particularly playable. With how many targets LA’s offense has, Oronde Gadsden is bound to disappoint eventually. But he hasn’t yet, so he’s a solid TE1 until proven otherwise.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Eagles 21.75, Packers 23.75
Honestly, these two teams feel very similar to me (and not just because they both wear green, although that does help). Both teams clearly have the talent to potentially compete for the NFC Championship, but they also both have a tendency to play inexplicably ugly games. The Packers now have losses to the Panthers and Browns on their record, while the Eagles lost to both the Giants and Broncos and always seem one game away from a complete implosion. What happens when two teams that play down or up to their opponents face each other? We are going to find out.
Quarterbacks
No matter how out of rhythm Philly’s offense gets, Jalen Hurts always seems to get it done. He’s an elite QB1. Jordan Love, on the other hand, seems to alternate big performances with ugly outings. Once we average them out, we are left with a high-end QB2.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley had a vintage (if last year counts as vintage) performance prior to the Eagles’ Week 9 bye. But that doesn’t erase how mediocre the rest of his season has been, nor does it help with this tough matchup. He’s a backend RB1, not a truly elite option. The same applies to Josh Jacobs, who has been ceding more work to Emanuel Wilson in recent weeks while dealing with a variety of ailments.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown has been incredibly frustrating to roster this season, but usage and talent are both on his side. He’s a borderline WR1. DeVonta Smith is similarly inconsistent, but also similarly talented. He’s not far behind as a solid WR2, albeit with more potential for a dud game than most players around him. Matthew Golden is listed as questionable for the Packers, but he did not practice on Friday, so I am expecting him to sit this one out. That leaves Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks (assuming he returns from his own ankle injury) as the team’s top WRs. Doubs is boring, but also the only consistent member of this group — he’s a borderline WR2. Watson is a boom/bust WR3 or flex, and Wicks is just a dart throw flex. If Golden is in, Doubs’ outlook doesn’t change much, but the other two get downgraded. The rookie himself would be just a boom/bust flex.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert’s role is already solid, and he just keeps racking up touchdowns. He’s a TE1. Luke Musgrave should take over as the Packers’ TE1 with Tucker Kraft done for the year, but he’s not the same level of playmaker. He’s just a TE2.
