NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 16 – Fantasy Football Blueprint

Before we dive into Week 16, let’s take a quick look back at how things played out last week.

We went with a Bills–Patriots stack, and overall it did what we needed it to do. Josh Allen was solid — not a monster, slate-breaking game, but he did enough to keep us competitive. The real difference-maker was TreVeyon Henderson, who had a monster game, putting up 33 points at very low ownership.

Across the rest of the lineup, things mostly held together. We were able to sub Jacory Croskey-Merritt in once we learned Chris Rodriguez was out. Woody Marks was off to a huge start and then went out of the game, which obviously hurt. Jameson Williams did well, Davante Adams didn’t do much on the other side, Darius Slayton didn’t do much, and Dalton Kincaid didn’t really connect with Josh Allen.

The Eagles defense put up 16 points in a shutout of the Raiders, so we had all the pieces there. It didn’t quite hit for first place, but it was a nice cash. With so many games on the slate, we knew it was going to take some really high scores and a little bit more luck. We put ourselves in position with solid plays.

Let’s do it again this week.

Quarterback Ownership & Early Leans

Starting at quarterback, Jared Goff shows up where you’d expect him in a good game environment against the Steelers. Jacoby Brissett is back again, and he could be due for a bounce-back week. He could end up throwing a lot of passes.

I’m probably going to continue staying away from the Cardinals for now.

C.J. Stroud versus the Raiders is solid enough, but I’m prioritizing the Texans defense, so I’ll probably be largely off their offensive players. Even if Woody Marks is playing, I’m not going back there.

Josh Allen is under 10% ownership, but he’s pricey, and I’m not going there against a tough Cleveland defense.

I do have some interest in J.J. McCarthy. He’s playing a little better, and they’re simplifying the game for him. I’ll probably get some exposure to that game, but I may not go directly to McCarthy.

You can make an argument for Bo Nix. Denver–Jacksonville could be a shootout, or it could be a lower-scoring back-and-forth between two solid defenses. I’m leaning toward it being lower scoring and fading it, but if you think it shoots out, it’s worth attention.

As we move down, Aaron Rodgers at $5K on DraftKings stands out in a game where they should be playing catch-up.

Then we get to Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew, Trevor Lawrence, and Dak Prescott. There are definitely players here I have interest in.

It would be exactly like the Cowboys to dominate the final three games once they’re basically eliminated. Technically, they have a path, but I don’t see the Eagles losing all three. Still, meaningless Cowboys games often turn into 40-point outbursts. If you can get Dak Prescott under 5% ownership, I like it, though he is pricey.

In my early builds, I’m leaning toward cheaper quarterbacks. I’ve got builds with Gardner Minshew, and I even have one with Quinn Ewers, pairing him with Devon Achane against the Bengals.

I’m staying away from the Bengals side. I don’t expect Tee Higgins to play. You can go to Ja’Marr Chase if you want, but he’s too expensive for the rest of the mid-range pieces I like. I’m also staying away from Joe Burrow, although Burrow – Chase – Achane is a nice stack this week.

Running Back Ownership & Leans

At running back, the expected names sit at the top: Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. I’m probably fading both, although you can play them.

Bijan could have a monster game, or Atlanta could dominate and Tyler Allgeier could take enough work to cap his ceiling. At his price, I don’t mind fading.

I don’t want any part of Aaron Jones. With Javonte Williams, I’d rather go to the Cowboys passing game.

I’m staying away from RJ Harvey, Ashton Jeanty, Michael Carter, James Cook, and Breece Hall.

As we go further down, Devon Achane stands out. If I can get him around 10% ownership, I’ll take that. I think we see a lot of dump-offs again.

The same applies to Kenneth Gainwell. It’s tougher to run on Detroit, but I could see him catching eight to ten passes. At $5,100, that’s valuable.

I’m staying away from Travis Etienne, Tyrone Tracy, Quinshon Judkins, and Chase Brown.

Omarion Hampton is interesting. If the game shoots out and he gets red-zone work, he could easily pay off $5,800. He’s been back a couple games since injury, though Khamani Vidal is still around.

I wish I could play Woody Marks, but I’m staying away from the injury risk.

Tyler Allgeier is at least worth mentioning as a sneaky, low-owned option if Atlanta controls the game.

Wide Receiver Ownership & Leans

At wide receiver, it’s no surprise to see Amon-Ra St. Brown at the top. You can go there, but I’m more likely to pay down to Jameson Williams.

On the other side, DK Metcalf at $5,400 stands out. Pittsburgh should be throwing to catch up, and I’ll eat the chalk there.

Ownership tells us the field is prioritizing Lions–Steelers. I want pieces, but it won’t be my primary stack since it gets expensive.

Courtland Sutton is cheap, but I’m probably staying away from Denver–Jacksonville, which I could see playing lower scoring.

With Rashee Rice out, Xavier Worthy climbs. I’m mostly staying away from the Chiefs unless I go cheap. Minshew–Worthy or Minshew–Hollywood Brown make sense.

I’m staying away from Travis Kelce for now.

I’m also staying away from Nico Collins, prioritizing the Texans defense.

Ja’Marr Chase is a nice bring-back with Achane, but he’s too expensive for how I’m building. Mike Evans is fine, but not a priority.

If you’re fading Bijan, Drake London makes sense as leverage.

Then there’s Justin Jefferson at $6,000, around 10% ownership. The Vikings are playing better, the offense is simplified, and I’ll take some shots here.

I’m fading Adonai Mitchell after already benefiting from his low-owned blow-up.

CeeDee Lamb makes sense in Cowboys–Chargers, but I’ll probably pivot to Jake Ferguson and hope the touchdowns go through the tight end.

Chris Olave should get plenty of volume.

Hollywood Brown at $3,900 stands out again as part of cheap Minshew stacks.

Michael Wilson makes sense as a way to reduce the effective ownership of Bijan Robinson lineups if you go there.

Tight End Ownership & Leans

At tight end, Harold Fannin is the chalk. I’m staying away and generally avoiding Browns offensive players.

Juwan Johnson and Trey McBride are in play, though McBride is expensive. Theo Johnson, Dalton Schultz, and T.J. Hockenson are viable.

Kyle Pitts at $5,000 makes sense, especially if you’re fading Bijan.

Further down, Darren Waller ($3,500) and Evan Engram ($2,900) are in play. Darnell Washington ($2,600) is a punt option.

The guy I keep coming back to is Jake Ferguson at $4,400 and under 2% ownership, hoping Dallas touchdowns flow through him.

Defense Ownership

The field is clearly trying to get cheap at defense. Jets and Falcons are popular.

I’m most comfortable paying up for the Texans defense and building around it. I don’t mind Buffalo as a pivot. Those are my two primary defensive lanes this week.

Putting It All Together

I’m leaning toward cheap quarterbacks this week. I’ve got builds with Quinn Ewers and Gardner Minshew. If I pay up, I like Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers.

At running back, I’m locking in Devon Achane as a leverage pivot away from Bijan. I also like Omarion Hampton and Kenneth Gainwell.

At wide receiver, I’m taking a chance on Justin Jefferson. I want exposure to Lions–Steelers, focusing on Metcalf and Jameson Williams, though you could go heavier.

Optional pivots are there. You could add Chase to Achane stacks. You could go Kyle Pitts instead of Jake Ferguson.

This slate is about flexibility, leverage, and multiple paths to ceiling, not forcing one fragile build. It looks like ownership is building around Lions and Steelers, I think it’s smart to build at least one lineup that completely fades that game too.

Let’s see if we can take this one down.