NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 9

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: With Swift out for the Bears, Kyle Monangai is expected to be chalk. Rhamondre Stevenson is out, so Henderson should be chalk. That opens up a lot of value so will see a lot of studs in lineups as well – Chase, McCaffrey, Rice, etc. You should definitely have the good chalk value RB options but make a secondary lineup that leans into stud RBs instead. Maybe build a Caleb Williams led lineup instead to get extreme leverage on the Monangai chalk. Again, Monangai will be in most of my lineups, but I will make some that fade him and other extreme chalk.

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Jonny Danger filling in for Reginald Appleby this week. Game and DFS thoughts below, then look out for the DFS Chalkboard to get a look at ownership and pivots!

SF @ NYG

McCaffrey had a big letdown last week as the Houston defense stepped up. The Giants’ rush defense has given up the 3rd most yards per game, so I am all on board with CMC bounce-back week. Pearsall should miss another game, and Kittle seems to be right back into the groove. Jennings has dropped to his lowest price of the year, and with Purdy possibly back, he could be a great value play.

Just when New York was on a high, they lost Skattebo… I don’t love the matchup for Tracy, but at his price, he’ll get the most touches on the day at that value. San Fran has so many players out on defense, I would think we see a decent day out of Dart and Robinson. Theo Johnson will get extra looks with Bellinger looking to miss the game, but at his price, I like other options.

Strong Spots: McCaffrey, Kittle

In Play: Dart, Robinson, Purdy (if plays)

Value: Jennings, Tracy

Stacks: Dart/Robinson/McCaffrey

DEN @ HOU

A couple of defensive forces where I won’t like much on either side. Both teams have fantastic corners, and we should have a very slow-paced game. I really have no interest in plays here unless you’re playing 150 and need that contrarian game to get pieces of. 

Fading this game except as a punt play for Chubb if Marks misses the game and Pat Bryant at near bottom pricing if Mims is out of limited.

In Play: Both Defenses

Punt Plays: Chubb, Bryant

IND @ PIT

This Colts team is a legit contender. Jones, Taylor, Pittman, and Warren are a star-studded lineup and can be used most weeks regardless of the matchup. However, this might be my absolute lock of the week. Both teams struggle to defend the pass, allowing big yardage. Daniel Jones is firmly in play with Pittman and Warren, and if you want to jam Taylor into your lineup, I won’t blame you.

Rodgers should have to throw the whole game, and I am zeroing in on Cal Austin for one of my favorite value plays of the week. Warren and Metcalf are in play for sure, as well as TE punts from your choice of Smith, Freiermuth, or Washington. Indy is going to put up points, and I am counting on Pittsburgh trying to keep up.

Strong Spots: Jones, Taylor, T Warren, Metcalf

In Play: Rodgers, Pittman, J Warren

Value: Austin, Downs

Punt: Washington, Freiermuth

Stacks: Taylor/Rodgers/Metcalf – Jones/T Warren/Metcalf – Jones/Taylor/Metcalf – Rodgers/Pittman/Austin… So many options here, I love this game.

CAR @ GB

Green Bay feels like they will control this game well. As such, I don’t love the Carolina side at all. Dowdle and Hubbard are both strong runners, but they kill each other’s value in a split backfield. McMillian is a phenomenal talent, but he can be kept down when Young gets pressured, and Young will be pressured. I’m out on the Panthers.

The Packers are primed to keep the NFC North lead and should do so with a solid defense and a quarterback in Love that will spread the ball around to a plethora of targets. I’m in on Love solo or paired up with Kraft. The wideouts are a weekly guessing game that I will mostly ignore. If healthy, Jacobs is absolutely in play as well.

Strong Spots: Love, Kraft, Jacobs

In Play: Green Bay Defense

Stacks: Love/Kraft – Jacobs/GB DEF

MIN @ DET

Simulations are claiming McCarthy is the GPP play of the week. I do think he will have to throw. I do think the Lions shut down the run. I do think this will be a high-paced game. I do NOT think that McCarthey is an NFL-ready QB. I will be avoiding him, but I can see how the sims like him. You’re gonna see Jefferson under 8-9%, Addison maybe under 3%, and Hockenson under 4% owned, so leverage in GPPs is there.

Lions players will be on the highest-owned side. If I’m playing this game beyond pieces to fill, the leverage is screaming to play MIN heavy side of the stack. St. Brown is poised for a huge game, and though MIN run defense can be better than perceived, Gibbs is mostly matchup-proof. Goff is a safe, steady option as always, and Laporta seems to be the ignored piece of this offense in early lineups. I actually like the Lions’ Defense to rattle JJ McCarthy, but they are pricey.

Strong Spots: Jefferson, St. Brown, Gibbs, LaPorta

In Play: Addison, Hockenson, Goff, Lions DEF

Value: Montgomery

Stacks: Lions Onslaught (3-4 Lions, Hockenson or Addison to run it back) – McCarthy/Jefferson/St. Brown – McCarthy/Addison/Gibbs (contrarian)

LAC @ TEN

The winning formula all year has included any against the Titans, and this week is no exception. Watch for injury news, but Ladd is in a smash spot, Allen, and I am back on Johnston. He has averaged over 80% snap share, and last week, he only saw 50%. I am of the mind that it is an outlier, not a trend. Vidal is the easiest click of the week at RB and will see nearly 100% of my GPP lineups. Gadsden looks like the real deal with early ownership of only around 5% he is firmly in play. This might be one of those cases that I play Herbert and Vidal and hope to capture all the TDs, and that he spreads the ball around enough to not have any one pass catcher dominate.

I don’t have a shred of interest in Tennessee players unless you are getting contrarian and need under $4k punts with Dike or a dart on Gunnar Helm at TE if Chig misses the game. I would consider Spears if Pollard misses the game.

Strong Spots: Vidal, Herbert, Gadsden

In Play: all LAC wideouts.

Value: Contrarian punt plays in Dike or Helm

Stacks: Mix and match Herbert with any two wide receivers and/or Gadsden – Herbert/Vidal/LAC DEF

ATL @ NE

Sadly, I think this is a recipe for back-to-back off weeks for Bijan, as the NE rush defence has only allowed 76 yards a game on the ground. If London and Penix are back, I’m ok with London, and Pitts should be in play regardless of who else is healthy if he goes. Look, Cousins seems very rusty and can’t move in the pocket, and Penix, London, and Pitts all have lower-body injuries. Probably an avoid situation across the board.

News broke that Stevenson is out, and at $4900, it will be hard not to look at Henderson to save money. Drake Maye is good for 20-24 points every week, and even though ATL has been a solid defense, you can roll Maye solo most weeks. I don’t have a specific WR in mind that I like from this crew this week, and I will find others I like more in their price points. The NE Defense is firmly in play this week with a banged-up Atlanta offense.

Strong Spots: NE Defense

In Play: Maye, London, Pitts (if fully cleared)
Value: Henderson

Stacks: Nah… unless you wanna run old school Henderson/NE DEF

CHI @ CIN

I’m not going to be alone in thinking it’s time to reload Bears players for a flop-lag week. I am in on Caleb and love Rome and Monangai with Swift out. If Kmet gets ruled out, Loveland is absolutely in play. I might even consider a dart throw at Monangai at $4600 because the Bengals’ defense is just that bad.

The Bengals might be forced to turn back to Browning with Flacco banged up. Regardless of who’s throwing him the ball, I am on Chase this week. I am in on Brown as it seems they remembered he’s actually good. Higgins is fine as he is still under $6k, but I don’t love that play.

Strong Spots: Williams, Monangai, Odunze, Chase
In Play: Brown
Value: Loveland

Stacks: Caleb/Odunze/Chase – Williams/Monangai/Odunze/Chase

JAX @ LV

Hunter is on the IL, Thomas Jr might not play, but we can always take advantage of LV pass defense. I prefer Parker Washington, but could mix in Dyami Brown some too. Both under $4k and looking for increased volume. We might see a show out for Vegas Defense as they can rush the QB more with his studs out.

Smith gets Meyers and Bowers back, and it’s a nice matchup. Jeanty ranks very high in my GPP ranks for his price. Jacksonville struggles against the pass as well. This might be an excellent sneaky stack as people focus on some higher-scoring affairs on the day. 

Strong Plays: Bowers, Jeantry
In Play: Meyers, Tucker

Value: Etienne, Washington, Brown, Smith

Stacks: Smith/Meyers/Bowers/Washington or Brown – Jeanty/LV DEF

NO @ LAR

I’ll be honest, NO is my least favorite offense on the week. I might play more Titans than Saints. I do like Juwan Johnson as a value TE play, and if all the RBs are banged up, maybe this is the gimmick Taysom Hill week we have been waiting for. The QB play is a pure disaster here, and Shaheed is banged up. Hard pass.

Rams get Puka back and in a great spot. I’m all in on his return, and if I can fit him in, I will. Kyren Williams is in a great spot with Nacua pulling defenders from the box. Adams and Stafford absolutely are in as well. I will mix and match a bunch from this team. I also have to shout out the Rams’ defense as a top option for the week as well.

Strong Plays: Puka, Williams
In Play: Adams, Stafford

Value: Hill

Stacks: Stafford/Puka/Williams – Stafford/Puka/Adams – Williams/Puka/Rams D

KC @ BUF

These teams have averaged 54 points a game combined against each other over the last eight games, including last year’s 78 just three times ago. KC is back on a championship trajectory with a stiff defense and Rashee Rice back. You have to consider Mahomes any time he is on the main slate, Rice looks like a lock for 24 points a week, and Kelce is always a red-zone threat. I am still not on their running game, though it has been improved lately.

Allen is a one-man wrecking crew that you can throw solo into lineups and hope he steals the short-yardage TDs. Cook is probably the other guy I like the most in this game behind Mahomes and Allen. He will go less owned than other top plays, and gives you a piece of the late game that should have fireworks. Shakir and Kincaid can be mixed in where it makes sense as well.

Strong Plays: Allen, Mahomes

In Play: Cook, Rice, Kelce, Shakir, Kincaid

Value: None I like

Stacks: Mahomes/Rice/Cook – Mahomes/Kelce/Shakir – Allen/Rice/Kelce/Cook